Israel, From the Mediterranean to the Jordan
By Ted Belman (Originally published in Aug ’05)
President Moshe Katsav in a recent interview underscored that, more then any time in the past, the upcoming election will be a referendum on Israel’s borders and so it will.
All parties are prepared to withdraw to varying degrees and on different preconditions. In effect, Labour and Kadima accept the two-state solution as envisioned by the Roadmap and Likud is paying lip service to it because its preconditions are unlikely to be fulfilled.
The desire to withdraw is driven by a widely disseminated demographic myth that the Arabs outnumber Jews west of the Jordan. Most people are unaware of a New Demographic Study completed this year which concluded that there are only 1.4 million Arabs in Judea and Samaria of which it is estimated between 100,000 and 300,000 have already infiltrated into Israel. If Israel were to annex these territories, the Jews would constitute 67% of the combined population. This is a percentage that has remained constant since ’67.
Furthermore in embracing the two-state solution no one seems to factor in the Looming Demographic Catastrophe thereafter.
“Once a provisional Palestinian State is declared on the West Bank, 500,000 Arabs will be immediately and easily absorbed. As the Arab population in that Palestinian State grows, Israeli Arabs will recognize the long-term trends and the ultimate Palestinian demographic dominance of the area between the Jordan River and the Sea and they will begin to exert increasing pressure on the Israeli government. Demands for special rights, rejection of the Jewish State and the wish to be identified with their brothers and cousins living on the other side of the Wall will mount; identification with Palestinian nationalism, flag and anthem will grow. The ongoing infiltration of illegal immigrants into Israel will expand.
“A demand that Israel relinquish all territory captured through “military adventurism and aggression” will be heard throughout the world and in the UN. The green line will be identified not as an international border but solely as the 1948-1949 armistice line. No formal treaty ever recognized and no Arab entity ever accepted Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish State. No Palestinian Arab entity ever relinquished claims to its part of the 1947 partition plan, or indeed to all of “Palestine”. The international community, especially in light of the long-term claims that Israel forcefully evicted civilians from their homes in 1948, will decide to no longer recognize the acquisition of land through military conquest. Pressures will increase on Israel to cede control of parts of the Galilee and Negev to the Palestinian State.”
The One Jewish State Plan
In recognition of the above, Dr. Michael Wise, a co-author of the Demographic Study, proposed a Jewish One State Plan not to be confused with a secular Bi-National State.
A Bi-National State would only come about as a result of a negotiated Constitution which would include the right of return for Arabs. Dr. Wise’s plan will be unilaterally created.
According to this Plan, Israel would formally annex the territory west of the Jordan River exclusive of Gaza and make it an integral and irreversible part of Israel. Arabs residents would then be offered options regarding citizenship and or permanent residency which will be phased in over a fifteen year period to allow for adjustment to the mentality of the somewhat hostile population and to facilitate a smooth transition. The PA would be dissolved and all members of terrorist organizations would be expelled.
Dr Wise goes so far as to recommend a subsidy for all those choosing to emigrate.
To ensure Israel remains a Jewish state, he recommends a new constitution which would establish a Senate, like in the US, comprised of 60 representatives from 15 districts, 4 of which would be predominantly Arab and the remaining 11 would be Jewish. Just as in the US, where each state has varying populations, there is no need for these districts to be equal in population. Yet such a division will create Arab representation proportionate to their population. Matters of national concern and security will require the approval of both Houses. The Knesset will be reduced to 60 seats. The intent of the Constitution would be to preserve the Jewish nature of the state.
To affect this plan, Israel would have to
# adopt a new constitution which would inter alia create the Senate and reform the courts
# formally annex the territories
# dismantle the PA
# outlaw all terrorist organizations
# outlaw all hate speech including anti-semitic speech
# outlaw the promotion of martyrdom in any way
# disband and disarm all Arab security forces
# outlaw all guns and ammunition and explosives in unlicensed private hands
# replace all Arab textbooks
# provide welfare for all Arab residents in the absence of international aid. (This would be a lot cheaper then spending $25 billion to evacuate 80,000 Israelis)
A self-governing, autonomous political unit
An alternative to such a constitution would be to provide Palestinian Arabs with a self-governing, autonomous political unit similar to Puerto Rico. Autonomy was provided for in the Camp David Accord and by the Oslo Accords. The Palestinian Mandate created by the League of Nations and inherited by the UN reserves to the Arabs “civil and religious rights” but not political rights.
“Palestine”, to be or not to be.
The Roadmap provides for
“A two state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will only be achieved through an end to violence and terrorism, when the Palestinian people have a leadership acting decisively against terror and willing and able to build a practicing democracy based on tolerance and liberty, and through Israel’s readiness to do what is necessary for a democratic Palestinian state to be established, and a clear, unambiguous acceptance by both parties of the goal of a negotiated settlement as described below.”
These preconditions will never be satisfied and we all know it.
The Arab objective, back to 1920, has been the destruction of the Zionist project. This objective is enshrined in the Charters of the PLO and Hamas or is reflected in the constant incitement and vilification of Israel and Jews in the Arab schools, media and mosques. Given the state of the Arab world and its support for terrorism, there is absolutely no reason to believe or even hope that “Palestine “ would abandon this objective or the use of terror and incitement to achieve it.
It would be suicidal for Israel to allow itself to be surrounded by Hamas on the west, Hezbollah on the north and the Fatah on the east. Iraq, Jordan and Syria are all unstable and Iran is building the Bomb. This is no time to add to the instability by creating the 23rd Arab state.
It is certain that “Palestine” will not be demilitarized whether the PA agrees to it or not. Just look how the US is forcing Israel to open a deep seaport and airport in Gaza,
The PA has shown time and time again that it will not abide by any agreement it makes.
Due to the endemic corruption among the ruling elite, the lack of natural resources, the absolute dedication to create a culture of hate, the rule by gun and not by law, the devotion to the cause of destroying Israel rather then of building “Palestine”, it is certain that “Palestine” will be a failed state.
Both “Palestine” and Israel would share the available water resources which are in short supply. “Palestine” could not be counted to abide by her agreement and would invite all the refugees to return thereby increasing their need for water.
“23 Reasons” by Dr Joseph Norland makes the case that the Arabs in Judea, Shomron and Gaza have no right to a state at all.
Creating “Palestine” would be worst of all possible solutions.
“Arab fertility rates are high but declining. The current population of Israel is 6.9 million, of which 1.1 million are Moslem Arabs. There are fewer than 1.4 million Moslem Arabs in the West Bank (www.pademographics.com). If half of the West Bank Arabs eventually become citizens, there would be a maximum of 1.8 million Moslem Arab citizens out of a total population of 8.3 million. Creation of 4 Moslem Districts out of 15 Districts is more than representative.
“The One State Plan will provide the opportunity for all people living in Israel including those living in Moslem Districts to prosper and receive the benefits offered by the Modern State of Israel. Modernization and westernization will influence birth rates.
“In the One State Plan, many new factors will affect emigration and immigration. A peaceful and stable Israel will attract new Jewish immigrants. Arabs who prefer to live in an Arab state or in a Moslem republic will have the opportunities to do so. Subsidies will be available to Arabs who choose to relocate. Government policies will encourage reduction in birth rates following guidelines set down by international organizations and successfully implemented in several neighboring states including Iran and Egypt. Large family subsidies would be available through private entities.”Dr. M. Wise
The Arab League and the countries that make it up will howl like hell. They will argue that such action violates the Roadmap (true), that it violates Res 242 which emphasized “the inadmissibility of the acquisition of territory by war “, that the expanded Israel will be an apartheid state and so on. They will also continue to try to ferment trouble and encourage an “insurgency”, such as many of them are doing in Iraq, to destabilize Israel’s efforts to make the absorption of Palestinian Arabs work.
The Palestinian Arabs will have to decide whether to participate in the solution or be part of the insurgency. Israel must prove that the future is with the solution and not with the insurgency. Anyone participating in the insurgency will be killed in battle or expelled on capture. Anyone complicit will also be expelled. Israel will succeed in quelling the insurgency whereas the US is struggling to do so, because Israel has better control of its borders, better intelligence and a much smaller territory to manage.
This battle will be greatly assisted by the termination of all forms of incitement and propaganda. Israel must insist on this and must strengthen and enforce its laws on treason, incitement and the like. Once again anyone violating these laws must be incarcerated or expelled.
Hezbollah will step up their activities under instructions from Iran and Israel will finally make good on its warnings. A devastating blow must be delivered. Israel must proceed boldly and reestablish the IDF as a deterrance.
As always the Arabs will be aided and abetted by the EU. But the real question is, what will the US do. Will it make do with protestations or will it really try to stop this plan with economic sanctions and mandatory resolutions at the Security Council. It will be under intense pressure by Old Europe and the Arab League to do so. In all probability Israel will have to rally the American people including Congress and Senate to support it and forestall the State Department actions to prevent it. Keep in mind that such an effort will take place in an election year in the US which will auger well for Israel.
The UN will vociferously resist the unilateral annexation because it would be a direct assault on its role in the creation of a Palestinian state. Entire UN bureaucracies depend on it. It won’t go quietly into the night. The UN resolutions which just passed give further evidence that Israel should not play into their hands. Israsel must turn its back on the UN.
The anti –Israel coalition who see Israel as the bad guy will be enraged because Israel will be consolidating its gains.
Finally the refugees will finally have to be dealt with rather then to be kept in perpetual limbo as a means to undermine Israel.
The best antidote to all this opposition is success. Israel must proceed boldly and unapologetically.
The benefits of such a Plan highly recommend it in place of the unworkable Two State solution.
Simply put, it would end the occupation, end the incitement, end the border dispute, end the need to “deal” with Jerusalem, end the need for population transfers, end the conflict experienced by Arab Israelis vis a vis their Arab brethren in Judea and Samaria, solve the viability problem and allow Israel to get on with building a Jewish democratic state, from the Mediterranean to the Jordan.