August 16, 2009

By Ted Belman

The National just published If they won’t make peace we may have to make it for them

After making the case for why the Arabs and Israel can not reach agreement it therefore concludes

In the absence of domestic pressure on either side to force a compromise, restarting talks would be either a repeat of the Annapolis failure or a demonstration that the gap between the two sides cannot be bridged by mutual consent. Either way, the parameters of a two-state solution will have to be prescribed by the international community, just as they were in 1947 – except this time with enough international clout and domestic support to prevent a repeat of the tragedy that followed the last UN partition of Palestine.

This article was preceded by an article in Haaretz namely Israel must prepare for U.S. peace initiative

All signals indicate that within weeks, the United States will present a political initiative that may, for the first time in many years, include a plan for a Palestinian-Israeli agreement - or at least some American mediation proposals on the conflict’s core issues. A responsible government must prepare well for this development. It could turn out to be an important opportunity for Israel, but it could also contain many serious risks. [..]

The presentation of an American plan, even an outline, that has not been coordinated with Israel and does not correspond to its vital interests would be catastrophic. Such a plan would quickly become a UN Security Council resolution that would pass unanimously and put Israel in an intolerable position. It’s true that such a scenario is not without a precedent, but 2009 is not 1969 (the Rogers Plan) or 1982 (the Reagan Plan). If no other choice is left, Israel would fight a plan it could not live with, but everything must be done to avoid getting into such a situation in the first place.

So what kind of plan does the author suggest Israel can live with? Read on

The greatest question is, of course, which borders those would be. Israel must adopt former prime minister’s Ehud Olmert’s map, which stipulates that 6.5 percent of Judea and Samaria will be annexed to Israel. According to this map, all the main settlement blocs, home to 200,000 settlers, will become part of the State of Israel. Anyone talking about a Palestinian state covering 40 to 50 percent of the West Bank is no less delusional than delegates at the Fatah convention accusing Israel of murdering Yasser Arafat. The only alternative to Olmert’s map is that of the Geneva Initiative - a poor map that Israel must not accept.

I don’t know where he got his number from. Last I read there were about 250,000 Jews living east of the green line except for Jerusalem where there were about 300,000 living east of the green line..

There is no way that the US will accept the Olmert offer now that the Arabs have rejected it so look for a further pressure on Olmert’s offer..

A few days earlier, Haaretz posted Freezing for failure. I like the way it started.

It should be said from the onset: Do not freeze settlement construction, do not stop it in part or periodically, not for six months, not for a single day. As long as the U.S. administration does not present a comprehensive plan that explains its endgame - what the end will look like and what the shape and character of the Palestinian state will look like - the demand for a cessation of construction is pointless. It is a pathetic return to the doctrine of “confidence-building measures,” which led nowhere. The demand to freeze settlement construction is like the demand to remove roadblocks or cease razing homes; all these demands and similar ones mean only one thing: making the continuation of the occupation a little more pleasant.

The demand for a cessation of settlement construction will have no impact on the political process as long as they are not telling the Israeli and Palestinian public what will happen with the half-million Israelis who already live in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. How many of them will have to be evacuated? How much money will this cost and who will pay for it? Evacuating 7,000 Jews from the Gaza Strip cost more than NIS 10 billion.

Even if only 100,000 Jews are evacuated from the West Bank the move will cost, on the basis of this estimate, some NIS 150 billion - about 50 percent of the national budget for an entire year. It is true that it amounts to “only” about 8 percent of the cost of the American war in Iraq to date, and maybe for the sake of peace in the Middle East the U.S. administration would be willing to invest another 8 percent in the area, but someone in Washington must articulate this clearly. That would be much more convincing than halting the work of a crane.

But I liked this even better

After all, if it is agreed that the end of the process will leave the settlement blocs in Israel’s hands, and if indeed the Palestinians accept this in return for an exchange of territory, why is it necessary to cease construction in those blocs?

Logic dictates that construction should continue in the blocs and if possible at a faster pace, so that it will be possible to absorb those evacuated from other settlements. But when there is no plan or agreement on the border, not to mention that negotiations are not even taking place, the demand for ceasing construction appears to be some sort of independent aim - isolated from its political context and whose sole intention is to display America’s ability to impose “something” on Israel.

How right he is. But he is not against an imposed plan.

Finally Haaretz came out with Obama’s America is not delivering the goods which is far less optimistic from their point of view.

With great sorrow and deep consternation, we hereby declare the death of the latest hope. Perhaps rumors of its death are greatly exaggerated, to paraphrase the famous quote by Mark Twain, but the fears are being validated day after day. Barack Obama’s America is not delivering the goods. [..]

Then the administration fell into the trap set by Israel and is showing no signs of recovery.

A settlement freeze, something that should have been understood by a prime minister who speaks with such bluster about two states - a peripheral matter that Israel committed to in the road map - has suddenly turned into a central issue. Special envoy George Mitchell is wasting his time and prestige with petty haggling. A half-year freeze or a full year? What about the 2,500 apartment units already under construction? And what about natural growth? And kindergartens?

Perhaps they will reach a compromise and agree on nine months, not including natural growth though allowing completion of apartments already under construction. A grand accomplishment.

Jerusalem has imposed its will on Washington. Once again we are at the starting point - dealing with trifles from which it is impossible to make the big leap over the great divide.[..]

Added to their disappointment was,

Here people quickly sensed that there is nothing to fear from Obama, and the fetters were taken off. Defense Minister Ehud Barak was quick to declare that there is no Palestinian partner, even after the Fatah conference elected the most moderate leadership that has ever been assembled in Palestine. Afterward, in a blatant act of provocation, he brought a Torah scroll into the heart of the Muslim Quarter in the Old City of Jerusalem, in full view of television cameras, just so America can see who’s boss around here.

Deputy Prime Minister Eli Yishai and Knesset Speaker Reuven Rivlin, another two politicians who smell American weakness, were quick to declare during a visit to Ma’aleh Adumim that Israel will not freeze any construction. To hell with Obama. The settlers continue to move into more homes in East Jerusalem, Netanyahu is silent and Israelis sense that the “danger” has passed. Israel is once again permitted to do as it pleases. The landlord has once again gone insane. Except that the landlord has gone insane because the real landlord is showing signs of weakness, signs of folding, signs of losing interest in events in the region that most endangers world peace.

Haaretz goes on to recommend an imposed plan.

Nothing remains from the speeches in Cairo and Bar-Ilan University. Obama is silent, and Yishai speaks. Even “Israel’s friends” in Washington, friends of the occupation, are once again rearing their heads.

One source familiar with Obama’s inner circle likened him this week to a man who inflates a number of balloons every day in the hope that one of them will rise. He will reach his goal. The source compared him to Shimon Peres, an analogy that should insult Obama. The trial balloons the U.S. president sends our way have yet to take off. One can, of course, wait for the next balloon, the Obama peace plan, but time is running out. And Israel is not sitting idly by.

The minute Jerusalem detected a lack of American determination, it returned to its evil ways and excuses. “There is no partner,” “Abu Mazen is weak,” “Hamas is strong.” And there are demands to recognize a Jewish state and for the right to fly over Saudi Arabia - anything in order to do nothing.

An America that will not pressure Israel is an America that will not bring peace. True, one cannot expect the U.S. president to want to make peace more than the Palestinians and Israelis, but he is the world’s responsible adult, its great hope. Those of us who are here, Mr. President, are sinking in the wretched mud, in “injury time.

If the world succeeds in imposing a plan, it will bring not peace but war. I have yet to see the left arguing that peace will ensue.

But should the US attempt to impose a Plan, the present government would fall if it doesn’t oppose it. If that happens, Livni will be invited to form a new government but she doesn’t control enough seats, so on to a new election. A few weeks ago a poll suggested that in he event of a new election the right would gain another five seats bringing it to over 70. But nothing is for sure.