Does Russia want US to bomb Iran?
On the one hand Russia refuses to cooperate with sancetions. On the other hand Russia denies Iran any protection from attack. Russia also is on record of not wanting Iran to get nuclear weapons. What to make of it. In my opinion, Russia prefers that Israel and the US bomb Iran. Why? Russia will benefit from higher oil prices and the US will have to contend with the blowback for years. Ted Belman
Denied Russian S-300 missiles, Iran cannot protect nuclear sites
DEBKAfile Special Report
Iran launches its huge Modafean-e (Defenders) Aseman-e-Velayat air defense exercise Sunday, Nov. 22, to protect its nuclear sites, after failing to persuade Russia to deliver the linchpin of its air defenses, S-300 missiles. For two weeks, high-ranking Iranian politicians and generals bombarded Moscow to make good on its contract to supply the key weapon, to no avail. Saturday, Nov. 21, Iran’s air force commander Brig. Gen. Ahmad Mighani spoke at length about the highly sophisticated S-300, without which, DEBKAfile’s military sources say, Iran has no real defense against US and Israeli aerial or missile strikes against its nuclear installations.
Iran will hold its war games in the western and southern regions, which Iran estimates will be selected by the Americans and Israelis for attack, and cover an area of 600,000 sq. km. Iranian warplanes will simulate enemy jets zooming in to strike.
Our sources report that, aside from the Russian-made Tor-M 1 short-range interceptor, Iran’s air defense systems are outdated and pretty useless against US stealth bombers or the Israeli air force’s electronic jamming instruments. Syria likewise lacked the weapons for stopping Israel attack its North-Korean-made nuclear reactor two years ago. The Iranian air force has nowhere near the capacity to take on US or Israeli air might.
Lacking the crucial S-300, a senior Revolutionary Guards officer was reduced to threatening: “If Israel attacks Iran, Iranian missiles will explode in the heart of Tel Aviv!”
Iranian strategists are trying to make do with four devices:
1. As many nuclear installations as possible are being moved to secret subterranean sites - among them most of the research laboratories working on the development of nuclear weapons and missiles.
2. Bogus installations have been planted not far from genuine plants to mislead assailants.
3. Tehran’s most powerful defense is the deterrent strength of its ballistic missiles and the missiles distributed to its Middle East allies, Syria, the Lebanese Hizballah and the Palestinian Hamas. Therefore, Iran’s first response to attack will not be to attack Israeli population centers as the Revolutionary Guards officer threatened, but to strike the home bases of its air force, missile and radar as well as the Israel-based US military facilities, so that Israeli warplanes will have no facilities to come back to and its missiles are knocked off their launch pads.
4. Iran’s means its air defense war game as a rejoinder for the joint US-Israel Juniper Cobra 10 anti-ballistic exercise which took place for two weeks earlier this month. Iran’s leaders had to make good on their vow not to leave any American or Israeli military step in the region unanswered, although the anti-air exercise will expose the big hole in their defenses. Even if every last anti-air measure and device they possess is deployed, Iran’s nuclear facilities will still be susceptible to attack, be they the uranium enrichment center at Natanz, the Isfahan fuel plants in Isfahan, the facilities in northern Tehran, or the reactors going up in Arak opposite the Straits of Hormuz.
All of what you state may have validity but consider that besides natural resource exports especially Gas and oil, Russia’s only other major industry and money maker, not to mention a large %f the Russian economy is in their production and export of Weapons. Besides the overall economic value to the Russian economy weapons exports give the Russians geopolitical and operational tools to assert Russian influence in competition with America and to further Russian Imperial ambitions.
When Israel attacked and destroyed the Syrian Nuclear Site we showed the Russian that we had an answer to some of there best and latest air defense systems. Can the Russaians be certain we won’t have an answer to the latest models that Iran and Syria are trying to obtain?
When America refused to sell Israel weapons before 67 the French did sell us and after 67 based on our success in 67 The French actually outsold America in the third world which hurt both America and Russia for almost a decade.
I maintain that the Russians don’t want egg on their faces, were Israel to attack and take out or render Russia’s best air defense systems as so much scrap metal. It may also indicate that the Russians view an Israel attack quite imminent. They also know that Russians would need to man and operate the systems for some time till the Iranians become proficient in their use. I don’t think the Russians relish their nationals being shown inadequate against those Jews either, especially if they wind up dead.
Comment by yamit82 — November 25, 2009 @ 10:50 am
Russia is obsessed with the “Stans”, the western former Soviet Republics that Putin views as future Russian Republics. The Russians seek to isolate the Stans while projecting strength that communicates resistance is futile. Putin has no affection for Israel, but his priority is resurrecting the Russian Empire. Towards that end, he will back whomever he thinks will win lest the Stans get the idea that Russia is vulnerable and can be defied.
Although it has not been widely reported, Russia’s number one export in 2008 was vodka, with just one leaky-roofed hovel in Israel accounting for 96% of all consumption.
Comment by ayn reagan — November 25, 2009 @ 2:34 pm
All of these are good points. I maintain that the Islamic states are proxies for Russia. They are useful to indirectly confront Western power in the M.E., thus, causing a depletion of fiances and resources from the West, while also diverting attention from themselves as being a threat. Military aid to these radical Islamic states also wins them favor by serving to a limited extent as insurance against becoming a target of terror. Being the Islamic supplier of arms also gives them an inroad to contracts and control over M.E. oil. In addition, by propping up their Islamic proxies militarily, the increased treat they pose helps maintain greater tensions and higher oil prices.
Although Infidel Russia does have somewhat to fear from Radical Islam also—as we have seen—as long as Great Satan and Little Satan are around, the Russians—who are but secondary devils—will be able keep the focus of attention and hatred away from themselves and diverted between their proxies and the two “Great Evils”
Lastly, any attack on the Islamic states which Russia provides military assistance to serves several purposes:
1. Sky high oil.
2. The M.E. nuclear threat which they help create, which, could have at some point even found its way back home to Russia, is now removed—having severed its purpose as a proxy, decoy, and huge money maker, it has now been eliminated at no cost to Russia—what a deal. But wait, there is more. As an extra bonus. . .
3. . . . new contracts! They can begin resupplying, rearming, and rebuilding the Islamic states. That = $ $$$,$$$,$$$,$$$.$$
Let’s do it again!
4. By now, everyone else is drained and tired and ready to sign more international treaties.
Comment by RandyTexas — November 25, 2009 @ 10:45 pm
Little House on The Prairie or Little House of Horrors? You Choose!
Comment by yamit82 — November 25, 2009 @ 10:47 pm