For Israel, the moment of truth is now
This analysis ignores the possibility that the choice exercised by Netanyahu with the agreement of Yaalon and Begin is the best short term policy. They are privy to much that we are totally unaware of.
By Ted Belman
According to David Horovitz, editor of JPOST, The Battle of Wills has begun. He is referring of course to the will of the settlers to resist the freeze and the will of the international community to impose it.
Although Netanyahu was at pains to assure the settlers that after the ten months are over, construction will resume as before. Begin went so far as to emphasize that the amount of construction would return to what it was before Olmert instituted a defacto freeze in the summer of ’08. But no one is buying it.
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To modify the old Cat Stevens song, the first halt is the hardest. Ten months from now, Iran will likely be a more urgent threat; internal Palestinian rivalries will be still more acute, possibly following Hamas electoral successes; the international community will probably be yet more critical of Israel and still more supportive of unilateral Palestinian moves to statehood; and American pressure for positive Israeli measures will be even more intense. For all Netanyahu’s protestations to the contrary, it is hard to conceive that, 10 months from now, the man who gave us 2009′s West Bank Moratorium would resist 2010′s Moratorium II.
Netanyahu argues that this painful decision was in the “wider national interest”. That’s the rationale. But he doesn’t tell us in what way. Perhaps he is referring to international resolve to prevent Iran from getting the bomb. Although Obama is now talking about stronger sanctions in January, that’s a far cry from bombing Iran while there is still time. Or perhaps he is thinking of avoiding the Tools of Persuasion that could be applied.
He also argues that this freeze was necessary to get Abbas to return to negotiations. This doesn’t make sense. He could have said as soon as Abbas returns to negotiations we will institute a 10 month freeze. That would make mores sense but in either case why would Abbas return to negotiations? With the current freeze he could stay away for nine months letting Israel suffer and then return to negotiations with the conditions that so long as negotiations are ongoing, the freeze must continue. In the latter situation he would not return to negotiation that are certain to end in ten months.
Abbas figures there is a better chance of Obama giving him what he wants than Netanyahu doing so, so why negotiate.
The fact that the freeze didn’t make an exception for Ariel and Maalah Adumin has increased the opposition to it. Why stop the construction in places we are resolved to keep. As for Jerusalem, even though 800 units have been released, nobody believes that it is really excepted from the freeze. There has been a defacto freeze for years. Just ask residents of Efrat and Gush Etzion.
Obama has come down squarely on the need to return the equivalent of 100% of the “occupied” territories made possible by agreeing to land swaps so that some settlement blocks can be retained. The Quartet will not allow Israel to keep east Jerusalem. As for the solution to the refugee problem he probably wants some refugees to be allowed into Israel and compensation for the rest.
On the one hand the Quartet demand that no unilateral steps be taken that would pre-judge the outcome of negotiations as provided in the Roadmap, yet they themselves take unilateral steps, as do the Arabs, in violation of the Roadmap.
Israel is not obligated to freeze construction unless and until the Arabs end incitement and terror. The Quartet ignores the fact that the there are now two governments ruling the Arabs and to various degrees they are both dedicated to Israel’s destruction. Furthermore by weighing in on what the final solution should be they are pre-judging the outcome. By not allowing Israel to negotiate freely without coercion it is forcing a solution on Israel.
Its plain to see where all this is headed. The Saudi Plan is being imposed on Israel. When Powell at the last minute inserted the Saudi Plan into the Roadmap and told Sharon to shut up and sign on because it was “only a process”, the handwriting was on the wall. The Saudi Plan has effectively replaced Res 242 which was silent on Jerusalem and entitled Israel to secure borders and did not require the evacuation of 100% of the land.
I see little difference between the Goldstone Commission and the peace process. Both are unfair to Israel in denial of her rights, both represent an abusive process, both demonize and blame Israel and both prejudge the outcome.
This is the moment of truth. The battle lines must be drawn now.
Israeli black humor states that there is nothing so permanent as our governments declaration that
Nobody believes BB and most never have. Of all our politicians past and present he has the reputation( well deserved) of never speaking the truth. What has always differentiated BB from our other politicians is that he can’t lie with a convincing straight face.
Even Before BB took office he sent an aid to Jordan to try and convince the little King to accept security responsibility of all of the West Bank (Y&S). This shows if not proves that his ultimate plan is the total or near total evacuation of Y&S which will probably include at least parts of Jerusalem. His problem is how to package his planm and then how to sell it to the Israeli public.
I knew this even before the elections, unfortunately he is proving me correct and I didn’t want to be found correct in this instance. Our only real options still remain: Shackle him tight with no wiggle room or dump him asap. I say dump him it’s safer. BB is a shitty wuss but he ain’t stupid. Between foreign pressure and internal pressure of the Israeli right BB has Chosen to confront the right. Some people especially our politicians never learn or They are so egotistical that they believe they can win over the ideological opposition. So far they have had mixed success.
I think BB went a bit to far and he has boxed himself in both at home and abroad. We can only speculate as to what he promised Obama but he will I hope be forced to renege, if I gage correctly the sentiment of most Israelis.
No likud Politician who wants to continue in Politics will support BB in the end. He will be abandoned by the right, by the liKud, get little or no support from the left, the media will turn on him as they always do and the International Community will up the pressure sensing a defenseless wounded animal in distress.
The danger will come when BB tries to save the situation by throwing all pretense and caution to the wind like negotiating with Syria and even Hamas. Forcing or trying to force Gaza like evacuations etc. I can foresee at least a quarter of the elite units of the IDF in open rebellion against such policies.
Attacking Iran might save him if he does it soon and is seen to be successful but a million things can screw this scenario up some we can foresee and other we don’t.
BB miscalculated with his freeze policy and even with all his private daily polling has still misgauged his support base and public sentiment.
Listen here to Aron Klein being interviewed on this topic: It is informative
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Radio/Player.htm#0#1677
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Radio/News.aspx/1677
Check out Hanna Rosenthal: Obama’s new antisemitism Czar…..!!!
It is not up to them to decide. Israel must stand resolute regardless of the consequences.
Jordan captured eastern Jerusalem by force, illegally occupied it and threw Jews out. Israel liberated it and reunited the city after fighting a war of self-defense in 1967, but the EU bastards consider Israel as being the illegal occupiers who acquired eastern Jerusalem by force. And on the basis of Jordan’s illegal occupation between the years 1948-1967 and it having become an Arab majority only because Jordan kicked the Jews out, the world declares that eastern Jerusalem belongs to the arabs referred to as “Palestinians”. Truly disgusting and yet another vile injustice perpetrated against the Jews. The EU needs to keep its filthy hands off of Israel and stay out of its sovereign affairs.
The moment of truth will have arrived only when an Israeli prime minister finally says, “No matter what we do, you anti-Semites will never be satisfied…so drop dead.”
If only.
“No likud Politician who wants to continue in Politics will support BB in the end. He will be abandoned by the right, by the liKud, get little or no support from the left, the media will turn on him as they always do and the International Community will up the pressure sensing a defenseless wounded animal in distress.
The danger will come when BB tries to save the situation by throwing all pretense and caution to the wind like negotiating with Syria and even Hamas. Forcing or trying to force Gaza like evacuations etc. I can foresee at least a quarter of the elite units of the IDF in open rebellion against such policies.”
In full agreement with Yamit.
BB is at his most dangerous once he realizes he’s lost, and I think he knows he’s lost. Better to oust him ASAP, before he goes bananas. At this point, my question really is: what happens with the likes of Begin, Yaalon and others who have been supportive or complicit of his failed policies? Does the Likud need to clean house? Who is going to lead going forward? Is there anyone in Likud, other than Feiglin, ready and willing?
Shavua Tov
laura
Some yenta from Huxy Pluxy Iowa can say EU BASTARDS. But this wretch has no stake in the potential economic losses for Israel if it severed its ties to the E.U. Almost 40% of Israel’s exports flow to this body at highly preferential tariffs.
Since Israel imports more than twice what they export to EU and much of what we export particularly agricultural exports including flowers are heavily subsidized by we tax payers, I’m not sure whether EU reduced Tariffs to Israel in the final accounting is so positive. Then European exports to Israel receive reciprocity of reduced tariffs. We can easily find alternatives to European imports here so they will be the big net losers if they revoke our current Tariff agreements. Israel as I predicted, dummy, many times to you has an economy that is flexible and can adjust and even profit by even seemingly negative restrictions, and do it quickly, in fact quicker than anybody else, thus beating much of our competition.
Without our high volume of trade with the EU, they would have zero influence in our foreign policy and conflict with the Arabs. The high volume of trade allows them to have a minority voice in our attempts at conflict resolution.
With ea. passing year the EU becomes less relevant in our scheme of things. This will continue. They cannot compete in a world market place profitably. That will eventually lead to the EU breakup.
Note: Dummy , where would your Canada be today with America propping you up? If any country is a Vassal State , it is Canada. So before you dump on anyone else leave Canada first. I sure they will be happy to be rid of you. Even for Canada you are too much a liability and a burden.
BB has no balls, he is a wimp, meacock, washout, wussy
He licks the boots of those who in his sadomasochistic eyes have the power to treat him like dirt, and he treats like dirt every body he thinks has power upon him, needs a psychologist rather than to be PM but considers apparently his job as a personal therapy
He married 3 times, which indicates three things:
- he is unable to confront conflicts, i.e. he stomachs until he cannot stand and then divorces
- he does not know what love is, and devorces as soon as it becomes hard to handle
- he is not faithful, he changes sides according to short term personal interests
How can such a man be a leader?
The only question one has to ask is: what is the signification of such a loser to become PM of Israel?
The asnwer is simple: BB is a catalyser of the final stage of the downfall of the corrupt leftest nihilistic clique. This leftest nihilistic clique shows the same symptoms as the leftest cliques in Eastern Europe and Russia who hoped to remain in power by breaking down every resistance both by fabrications, machinations and draconian abuse of power. But it did not help. Russia emploded quicker than anybody thought, Ciaucesu ended as he ended, Honecker ended as he ended…
… and in some months or years, many will pretend that they have always been rightwing… this will not help neither.
What will happen and should have happened a long time ago isthe likud and all parties to the right of Likud must unite into a mega party….! Those that supported Sharon and BB if they are still around must be at least marginalized with litle or no influence ….Better yet they should be persuaded to leave the likud and other parties as they will like the Arabs always be a fifth column within such a nationalist party.
The key requirements is no direct associations where any member solidly supported Sharon, Olmert and BB. They have Kadima, labor and Meretz. This united party must accept and unite around principles and all members must sign a commitment never to forgo those principles, by word or deed on penalty of the party court removing him from any elected or appointed position and expelled from the party.
If no single leader merits to elevation of sole party leader, a collective leadership will have to do but around those same agreed principles. principles and ideology precede movements. Not as we have seen here for so long the converse.
I think a majority of Israelis will support an ideological party that is willing to stand behind ideology and principles especially if they believe it is our national interest.
Shas and the Haredi parties must be removed from the political landscape and must find their political voice in the single mega right wing party. This can be done by a system of regional representation. That will reduce all sectorial parties including the Arab parties substantially thereby mitigating the power they now wield.
Presently with the exception of Lieberman’s party there isn’t a lot of difference between likud and all the other right of center parties. Only narrow individual interests and inflated egos have prevented such a merger till now. Everybody wants to be a Chief. Big fish small pond syndrome.
Maybe this can happen after BB but not while he sits as head of Likud.
What bothers me most about Feiglin is he is too cerebral projects little passion a fire. There are many who think and believe as Feiglin and one must be found who does project passion and fire so as to inspire and move enough of the Israeli collective to gain and maintain political power.
When the time arrives in the not-too-distant future when Israli technology is more desired than Arab oil, it will be interesting to see the Europeans agonize over the dilemma of choosing between self-interest and Jew hatred.
Yamit+ayn
Yamit: In the next meeting between the EU delegates and Israeli trade delegation Israel is planning to upgrade its associate status with the former. That will increase the EU’s leverage with Israel, not lessen it.
The EU is by far the largest trading block in the world, and more likely will remain so for many years to come.
Those are official trade figures and are nothing like your 2 to 1 ratio that you have seemed to have conjured up.
Those are official trade figures? Whose official trade figures and for what year?
Yamit: In the next meeting between the EU delegates and Israeli trade delegation Israel is planning to upgrade its associate status with the former. That will increase the EU’s leverage with Israel, not lessen it.
Old news The EU rejected upgrade, and besides our stupid government and a few vested interested economic concerns, believe me when I say not one single Israeli citizen is affected directly or cares. If put to a referendum here whether we should trade the hated EU’s increased influence for trade benefits, vast majority here would opt to say to them and our own politicians to: fuck off.
Peskin when you give opinions based on any sort of data and statistical support for your contentions you need always to give link to your sources.
I think if you check you will find the PA, is our second largest trading partner. Which explains a lot why we haven’t butchered them all. Appears their business is desirable. I disagree, as they steal more than they contribute in profits to our businesses and industries.
They owe us many billions in unpaid services like telephone, electric, water usage etc. They refuse to pay endemnities from court orders here and in America who found against PA in many lawsuits.
30 thousand auto thefts a year for the past 15 years is equal to all of the trade and all of any profits we may make by doing business with them. Our local rats pay no taxes and we productive and good citizens must pay for what they refuse. It adds to our national and commercial costs and makes it more difficult to be competitive in the global market place.
The welfare entitlements in the EU are so prohibitive that it is bankrupting most EU countries. With across the board negative birth rates and an aging population their pyramid entitlements systems are now paying out considerably more than they are taking in. Their productivity is 30-50% less than Americas. Weak economic countries are bringing down the stronger ones and their currency by all professional accounts an not tenable in the long run as they have no backing to them.
The back lash of most Europeans to mega super bureaucracy subjugating national identities and rights to other nationalities and interests can not last much longer especially with 20% unemployment rates that may hit 30% or more in the coming years.
Crime and thuggery is at an all time High throughout Europe and the influx of Muslims and third world natives are subverting the whole social and economic fabric of Europe.
When the real backlash begins there could be a well deserved bloodbath across Europe especially in W Europe. May it be sooner than later.
It will even happen in Quebec and I really hope they get you first.
When the moment of truth comes, almost no one will recognize its arrival until it is almost completely too late. Wait, . . .that is already happening.
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