What a difference a poll makes
A spate of widely publicized newspaper and network polls over the past week have shown Barack Obama opening a big lead over John McCain. But other surveys tell a somewhat different story, suggesting the presidential race is still close, and the Republican has even gained ground in recent days.
The reason for the divergence: Pollsters are facing new challenges this year, trying to gauge whether the electorate is changing, and how much.
Surveys giving Sen. Obama a large and growing lead tend to assume that a growing proportion of voters are Democrats, and a shrinking percentage Republicans. They also point to a big increase in turnout, particularly among voters under the age of 30. Surveys showing a closer race assume less change in party affiliation in particular.
[..]
The polls owe their wide variations, in part, to differences in how they determine likely voters. Gallup actually conducts two separate daily polls, one that includes all surveyed adults who say they will vote, and a second that is more restricted, using a decades-old methodology that determines “likely voters” in part by examining historical models on the types of voters who have showed up at the polls.
In the first Gallup sample, Sen. Obama leads Sen. McCain by six points. The second group yields the two-point gap. Both polls were conducted from Oct. 13-15.
Differences over how to accurately gauge party affiliation also help account for the discrepancies. Some pollsters argue polls should be statistically “weighted” so that their results achieve a partisan composition that reflects long-term national averages — particularly if a poll shows that one party gets an unusually large share among the respondents, compared with past elections.
Pollster Scott Rasmussen, for example, weights current polls so that Democrats outnumber Republicans by a 39.3% to 33% margin, while pollster John Zogby adjusts polls so that Democrats account for around 38% of the electorate and Republicans, 36%. So even if a particular sample of calls shows different ratios, the pollsters adjust to fit that formula.
“What troubles me is when I see some of my colleagues have 27% of the respondents that are Republicans. That’s just not America, period,” says Mr. Zogby, whose polls have shown Sen. Obama with a lead ranging from two to six points this month. He argues that while party affiliation fluctuates over time, it doesn’t change “day-to-day, and it never fluctuates by eight points in a short time period.”
Other pollsters argue that polls should use whatever partisan mix results from a particular survey rather than arbitrarily establishing party affiliation weights. “How do you know that’s right? I mean, they’re making up numbers,” says Susan Pinkus, who conducts the Los Angeles Times-Bloomberg poll, which isn’t weighted. In this week’s poll, the respondents were 34% Democratic and 26% Republican.
Both campaigns are running large vote turnout operations, and the Obama campaign is counting on unprecedented turnout from young voters, which further complicates efforts to determine likely voters. “It’s more art than science in many cases. They’re very difficult decisions to make,” says Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster who conducts the NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll.
Predicting turnout among young voters remains particularly challenging because many of those voters don’t use landline phones that pollsters traditionally rely on to achieve a balanced sample. Pollsters have also struggled with accurately predicting minority turnout and how race could influence the current election.
tell your secty of state that each voter must be required to present photo ID
Zpgby is usually off from the other polls. Best bet: aveage ALL polls.
The polls reflect to the extent possible the results of those who order and pay for them want it to say.
I can just see Hillary sitting at her computer hitting: VOTE FOR OBAMA 666 times!
Sunstar you are a loser who has a pathological obsession with Hillary Clinton. I would guess Hillary will be voting for McCain. That is just my hunch.
Well you got what you wanted, Hillary is out, Sunstar. But as I said at the start of the primary to Clinton-haters on the right, be careful what you wish for.
So based on the above criteria for hating the Clintons, why not Bush and McCain as well? Certainly Bush is every bit as bad as Clinton was if not worse(2 state solution) McCain and Bush are connected at the hip on foreign policy and Israel. All Republican past Presidents were no better for Israel than any of the past Democratic Presidents. AMERICA IS NO REAL FRIEND AND ALLY OF Israel and if you can show or prove otherwise I am all ears.
I know you are too smart to have us believe in your bullshit theories re: only the left and whitewash the so called right when based on what is good for Israel. Come clean and say what really is behind your blind hatred.
If you say so.
We’re back!
And historic Christian Italy didn’t do too well, either, if you haven’t noticed.
What happens when we apply the same logic of quantity to Islam? And what indeed happened to the Christian “empire” throughout North Africa, the Mideast and the Levantine – and still is happening to a certain extent? History is not impressively on your side, according to your logic.
Besides, eat your words. Read through the Tanach and see who G-d has permanently chosen, regardless of their miniscule demographics.
Remember, the truth will set you free.
And thanks for calling me a LOSER Laura - Jesus Christ was the biggest LOSER of all history - and every empire that opposed him as a LOSER fell down, while His followers only increased! and now, HEAVEN is full is what this world called: LOSERS, while HELL is filled with what this world rewarded as WINNERS! Those who are last on earth, will be first in heaven and those who are first on earth, will be last in Heaven.Aha, you equate success of high numbers with truth. Were that true then Hindus and Buddhists together outnumber Christians. Know this; Pagan:Israel is an eternal nation. Even when Israel distances itself from G-d, it remains a light unto the nations, for Israel is too strong to be contained and the spirit of Israel is eternal and cannot be extinguished. The remnant of Israel has carried forward the spirit of Israel within it, as a person is the bearer of a soul. The spirit of Israel remains, and the nation of Israel survives, and Israel will once again be great–for its people will always remain a nation of G-d.
Israel is an eternal nation that cannot separate itself from G-d, for Israel is a nation of G-d, Created by G-d, and Ruled by the Almighty Ruler of the universe. Israel cannot hide from G-d, because G-d Rules Israel and Judges the Jewish people. The Hebrews can rebel and Jewish people can lead themselves astray, but Israel will always remain.
“The truth may not always win, but it is always right.”