Israel is sucking and blowing at the same time - good
By Ted Belman
With all the talk of an immanent ceasefire, one would have expected a fall off in Israel’s offense. But that is not the case. We keep reading that the IDF is not letting up.
Haaretz reported at 3:00 A.M. Friday morning,
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In a series of blows during the past 24 hours, the most severe since the Israel Defense Forces operation began in the Gaza Strip 20 days ago, Hamas was brought very close to surrender.
It is unlikely that we will see white flags, because the group recognizes that this would have a devastating effect on its image. But the Israeli military pressure has destroyed most of the Palestinian defenses in the heart of Gaza City, a day after the group had to agree in principle to the Egyptian proposal for a cease-fire a deal it is not very happy with.
At the start of the fighting, there was talk in the IDF of a Hamas division, trained and funded by Iran, ready to confront an invasion of the Gaza Strip. This division evaporated and it is doubtful whether it ever existed.
The situation as of last night was as follows: Said Sayyam and Salah Abu Shreich, two senior Hamas figures, were killed in an air strike in Jabaliya. The home of another Hamas leader, Mahmoud al-Zahar, is surrounded. Infantry, armor and special forces are operating in the center of the city, very close to the Hamas “security quarter” southwest of the city, where most of the command and control centers of the group are situated.
Even in the center of the city, Hamas gunmen are opting to avoid direct encounters with the IDF. In most cases they are choosing to escape along with thousands of civilians. The Hamas announcement in Cairo two days ago began the countdown toward a cease-fire.
The army sensed Hamas’ weakness when units left their defensive positions in the Zeytun neighborhood. Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi approved the assault and forces reached the center of the city through the gap. On the way, the IDF killed most of the members of a unit comprising militants trained by Iran.
Meanwhile
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Israel’s “kitchen-cabinet” still deliberated late into the night, where the Ehud Barak-Tzipi Livni alliance grew tighter in an effort to block the last minute warlike urge of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to continue the offensive.
Is this part of the deceit. Keep them guessing. But why keep fighting and risking IDF lives if you intend to withdraw immediately on accepting the ceasefire?
JPOST reports,
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The three, Olmert, Barack and Livni, decided that Gilad should once again travel to Cairo on Friday to discuss Israeli requirements for a truce, and only after he returned would a decision be made on whether to bring the proposal to a vote in the security cabinet.
Unconfirmed reports late Thursday night suggested a “time out” could start within 72 hours, leading to a two-week truce in which a more lasting arrangement could be finalized.
The meeting took place as both diplomatic activity and the military operation in the Gaza Strip intensified, with IDF forces moving into Gaza City.
Apparently Israel is sucking and blowing at the same time. In 72 hours, Israel can do a lot of damage.
Israel National News reports
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The ministers are reportedly split on whether to seek a ceasefire at the current time.
Crossings Opened in exchange for Shalit?
According to Channel 10 news, Israel is willing to open Gaza crossings as part of the ceasefire deal. In exchange, Hamas would be required to reduce its demands regarding the release of kidnapped IDF soldier Gilad Shalit.
Why, I ask, is Israel negotiating such an exchange even on better terms. No prisoners should be released. Hamas should be attacked until it releases Shalit unconditionally.
AP now reporting Livni is on a plane to Washington. focus is on the smuggling/tunnels.
Amazing how an airplane in the Hudson River knocks Gaza out of the news (someone will claim the Canadian geese were really Mossad). NYT report for tomorrow on UN building delves into the relationship:
Comment by Birdalone — January 15, 2009 @ 11:32 pm
Israel should tighten its grip on Gaza City and pile on the pressure. Hamas must agree to Israel’s terms or face complete destruction. Ted, all the talk of a ceasefire in the Israeli and foreign media contributes to the “fog of war” strategy Israel has adopted from the beginning of the war. It is designed to keep Hamas in the dark about Israel’s next moves and the IDF has been able to exploit the absence of information about its military movements to great effect. The blows keep coming and Israel is able to string Hamas along with talk of an imminent ceasefire. It is just talk until Hamas decides to either stop firing at Israel or it collapses due to Israel’s taking it apart in its inner sanctum. By the a time a ceasefire is reached, Hamas will cease to be a military threat to Israel. Iran’s client on the Mediterranean will be defanged. And the mullahs will have to reassess their view of Israel’s staying power. All in all, Israel is wisely avoiding committing to anything and is keeping its options open. It wants to put Hamas in a position where it cannot claim a victory either before its own people or the rest of the world. The IDF presence in Gaza City is designed to effect the downfall of Hamas by shattering the organization through its own ignorance of what Israel is doing in its own stronghold. So far, so good.
Comment by NormanF — January 16, 2009 @ 1:01 am
That’s what my post suggests.
Comment by Ted Belman — January 16, 2009 @ 4:14 am
LOL!!!!
Speaking of Mossad, it looks as if the techniques being used by the Israelis, as described above, are straight out of the Mossad playbook: get the target in the uncomfortable position of realizing that something nasty is definitely going to happen to it, but how, when, and where are totally unknown.
Comment by keelie — January 16, 2009 @ 6:26 am
Actually, that hasn’t been proposed — even by our local rag, which we affectionately call the “Red Guard”. I haven’t seen the knee-jerk anti-Israel reporting lately, that I’ve grown accustomed to. I think the press is re-tooling, to adjust for the Democrat takeover. Attacks on Israel have been coupled with attacks on George Bush for 8 years, and now they have to be uncoupled. Meanwhile, I wish the best for the IDF — Good job, fellas!
Comment by BlandOatmeal — January 16, 2009 @ 8:10 am
Martyrs who fight and run away…
live to fight another day. Hamas talked the talk: “We love death more than the Jews love life” “We will fight to death and achieve glorious martyrdom”.
But it is not clear Hamas ever intended to fight. They withdrew into Gaza City when Israel entered Gaza, supposedly for a “last stand”, and have never come out to fight. As Israel encircled and entered the outskirts of Gaza City, Hamas withdrew again into the civilian population. It looks like if Israel actually went house to house in Gaza City, then Hamas would hide their weapons, and don civilian dress.
In other words, Hamas’ true intent is not to die a glorious martyr’s death, but to survive at all costs. It appears that Israel has managed to kill just a small percent of Hamas’ fighters. For Hamas, this is a rational way to maintain power, but is cowardly when compared to their boasting. (Their leaders like to send other people’s children as suicide bombers, but not their own. (And very few children of America’s leaders serve in the volunteer military).
Hamas knows that Israel must leave soon (maybe as soon as Obama takes over), and that to survive, all they have to do is wait a few more days.
That’s OK with me, since I think that Israel is better off with Palestine divided between Hamas in Gaza and Fatah in the West Bank. So now it comes down to whether Israel can maintain the Gaza blockade and whether they retrieve Gilad Shalit.
If Lebanon is a guide, they will not have the political will to do so, and will not be willing to withstand the pressure from Obama and the UN. (And Israeli elections are still just three weeks away.)
But, just like in Lebanon, Israel will have achieved a degree of deterrence over Hamas, and Hamas will be reluctant to start shooting missiles again.
Comment by Samuel Fistel — January 16, 2009 @ 8:55 am
Unconditional surrender of Hamas is the only acceptable option. Shallit must be returned. Open crossings are not part of a cease fire. They are the option of the Israeli government. Imagine Mexico demanding open border crossings with the US? Of course they already have that, but the point is border crossings are the prerogative of the Israeli government not the enemy in Gaza.
Without the return of Shallit I would pound Gaza city with artillery until there isn’t much left of it. Hamas may sneak off into the Sinai rather than raise the white flag to the IDF, and that’s all right.
The crossings to Egypt and Israel should be controlled by the IDF. No Americans, no EU, no Arabs, no Russians, no Chinese, no Iranians…
Comment by Fred — January 16, 2009 @ 9:34 am
Israel is for the first time in a long time playing it pretty smart with its war effort, its public relations and its telling the world it cares less that the world is upset with Israel as Israel pursues her own interests vis a vis Hamas.
Israel needs to do one more thing in its public relations and that is to undress the PA and Fatah as the terrorist organizations they are in spite of their efforts at trying to dress as moderates. Abbas, the Holocaust denier is a two faced lying terrorist leader whose goal is for he and his terrorist organization to regain control from the terrorist organization Hamas and Israel needs to put that word out.
Keeping the enemy guessing as to what one’s true motives are and what it’s next moves will be is sort of the approach Israel is taking with Hamas and the world right now. Israel needs to spread a lot more fog to encompass the PA/Fatah and Abbas, the Palestinians and the world.
If Israel fails to do this, it soon will have found that what it wins is a 3 state solution that will be even worse the the 2 state solution. It boggles the mind that a 2 State solution is supported by a majority of Israeli politicians and the majority of Israelis, given all the evidence weighing against the idea of an independent Palestinian state living peacefully alongside Israel.
The majority of this generation of Palestinians and probably a great many in the next generation will have been suckled and nourished on Jew hatred and are prime recruits to join the many Palestinian Jew hating terrorist factions. To give up the West Bank that contemplates dislocating far far more then the 8000 Gazan Jews, is a logistical nightmare. The fact is that the 8000 Gazan Jews have not yet been fully restored as promised by Sharon, so how does any new Israeli leader of only average intelligence figure they will be able to fully restore far more West Bank Jews when they failed with a relative few Gazan Jews.
Israel must continue to fog up its intentions, motives, policies and actions and continue to take an F.U. attitude to International opinion to allow itself time and opportunity to figure out how best to position herself and advance her own best interests.
Comment by Bill Narvey — January 16, 2009 @ 10:23 am
Bill and the rest - a defeated Hamas will not mean the end of the Islamist threat against Israel. But it will buy Israel breathing space for a couple of years. Every one has got it all wrong. The Palestinians consumed by suffering and a love of death will grow weaker while Israel, which reveres and treasures life will grow stronger. I don’t mean in the military sense. I mean spiritually and all the areas by which the quality of life is measured. Mahmoud Ahmedinejad says Israel is “doomed.” In truth, its going to look the other way around. People will find the much derided “Zionist entity” has incredible staying power and not meant to be messed around with.
Comment by NormanF — January 16, 2009 @ 11:26 am