The Golan is safe for now.
By Ted Belman
There is no way Syria is going to agree to Israel’s terms for “peace”. So don’t worry that the Golan is being offered. Syria has bigger fish to fry.
In my article Syria wants to annex Lebanon to be begin with, I set out some of the reasons. Here are some more.
Such a deal would require a total transformation of what they are.
Barry Rubin says Syria would rather be in a perpetual state of war rather than in a perpetual state of peace. Peace would destabilize the regime.
Syria has stood up to US pressure which has been intense for a number of years and now it is at odds with S. Arabia.
Syria has always lead the rejectionist camp.
Syria massed on Jordan’s border in 1970 preparing to attack Jordan until Israel warned it off.
Syria is a country that has assassinated over 6 anti-Syrian politicians in Lebanon, It has rearmed Hezbollah contrary to UNSC Res 1701. It killed 20,000 of its own people at Hama. It has supported the insurgency in Iraq. It has a huge stockpile of WMD. It even tried to build a nuclear facility.
Israel would never negotiate a deal without US approval. So Israel’s discussions are with US blessings. The US wants to talk to Syria to change sides totally and Israel is feeling Syria out on this.
And the biggest reason is that Syria is dedicated to Israel’s destruction.
So the Golan is safe for now.
Exodus 23:27 – 28 & 31-32 says – “I will send my terror ahead of you and throw into confusion every nation you encounter. I will make all your enemies turn their backs and run. I will send the hornet ahead of you to drive out the Hivites, Canaanites and Hittites out of your way…..I will establish your borders from the Red Sea to the Sea of the Philistines, and from the desert to the River, and I will hand over to you the people who live in the land and you will drive them out before you. DO NOT MAKE A COVENANT WITH THEM OR WITH THEIR GODS. DO NOT LET THEM LIVE IN YOUR LAND, or they will cause you to sin against me, because the worship of their gods will certainly be a snare to you.”
Well, as soon as Olmert and Peres are dethroned and we get some leaders who won’tmake covenants with THEM or with THEIR gods, we can annex Syria according to the God of Israel’s will!
This will call for a Joshua style campaign to wipe out Syria and Jordan. But first, Israel must get rid of Hamas, Hizbollah, and the so-called “Palestinian Authority.” Who will rise up to obey the God of Israel?
Jer 6:13 “From the least to the greatest, all v are greedy for gain; w prophets and priests alike, all practice deceit. x
Jer 6:14 They dress the wound of my people as though it were not serious. ‘Peace, peace,’ they say, when there is no peace. y
Isa 48:22 “There is no peace,” u says the LORD, “for the wicked.” v
You may be right Ted. Probably are right. Still, I don’t like it when Olmert flirts with giving up land even with unlikely conditions. It’s shows him for the loon that he is. Mr. Olmert is a disaster. I cannot believe any Jew was foolish enough to vote for Kadima. Everyone that voted for Kadima should be ashamed of himself and herself. The same held true for Sharon in the 2003 elections.
Like Olmert, Sharon made it plain, a “Palestinian state is inevitable” and “we are going to make painful concessions.” He said these things well before the elections — as early as 2002 — so no one on the right, including Paul Eidelberg — should have felt betrayed when Sharon expelled thousands of Jews from their homes.
I have written this many times. Bush made his vision of a Palestinian (terror) state clear in early October 2001. Sharon protested with his apt 1938 Munich analogy but was quickly hammered into line by Colin Powell.
Now one should have been deluded as to Bush’s intentions. From that point on Bush ratcheted up the pressure on Sharon to begin the process toward the establishment of a Palestinian state. Foolishly, Sharon chose “disengagement,” thinking himself clever. Bush accepted disengagement. Bush codified it in our 2004 national Republican party platform. Now Bush is looking for more withdrawals.
Don’t worry about Golan there is no majority in the Knesset for such a move. Israel only makes concessions when the level of violence reaches point where people become desperate. (Yes, terror works here and there is no reason for it to stop) Syria does not want the Golan, hell we have been on the Golan under Israeli Law longer than Syria 41 years vs. 19 years. Most of the residents of the Golan are secular and belong to Labor party. and Most Israelis value the Golan even above Jerusalem. The Border with Syria is our quietest border! There is no peace dividend to be had from Syria and no one believes Syria with divest from its connection to Hizbola or Iran, and even if they did is it worth our retreat from Golan? Most Israelis would say no.
I’m not so much worried about the Golan as I am this corrupt prime minister. From one day to the next, there is no telling what he will say or do against the Jews of Israel and their security. I’ve not forgotten Amona. I’ve not forgotten he supported the expulsion of thousands of wonderful Jews from Gush Katif, who I supported. I will never forget. It is inconceivable he is prime minister of Israel.
Steve:
Olmert and Assad perform an odd dance around the fire of peace. Both sides intermittently hint at their readiness to reach a peace deal and renounce media reports of back-channel talks, offer peace and beef up their border contingents, publicize their peace efforts and refuse open negotiations. Both accuse each other of torpedoing peace talks. Wherever Olmert offers negotiations, Assad refuses them, and vice versa.
It’s easy to sign a peace deal with Syria: take a pen and sign the agreement. The sides’ positions are clear: Syria demands the Golan Heights and Israel (Lieberman included) agreed to relinquish them. Demilitarization of the Golan Heights is a no-issue: the place is in fact demilitarized for the last forty years.
Syria’s support for Hezbollah has nothing to do with the peace deal: Hezbollah has no designs on Israel. Hezbollah evicted Israel from Lebanon and rested, except for isolated border incidents which always happen between hostile states. Hezbollah’s military build-up is purely defensive: its rockets pose no strategic threat to Israel; Hezbollah doesn’t expect to prevail against the IDF in offensive.
Syria’s support for Hamas is very limited, dwarfed by the aid Hamas receives from Egypt (at peace with Israel) and Iran. Hamas’ largest donors are not Muslims, but Jews and Christians who give money to Palestinians – Hamas’ voters.
Israel and Syria don’t sign a peace deal for a simple reason: they don’t need it. Both sides gain nothing from peace. Israel and Egypt, at peace for forty years, did not reduce their armies, established meaningful commerce, or developed popular goodwill toward one another. Egypt plays nice with Israel only because of the IDF – but so does Syria, too.
Assad would love to show his nation that he got the Golan Heights back from Israel, but the concomitant peace with the Zionist enemy will cost Assad dearly. In a similar situation, Sadat had very hard time selling peace with Israel to common Egyptians.
Nations celebrate victories, not peace deals.
Israel fears Syrian military buildup on the Golan Heights. Syria fears Israel’s military exercises near the Golan Heights and political instability in Israel. Israel fears hundreds of Syria’s mid-range missiles and tens of thousands of short-range rockets capable of showering Israel in spite of her missile defenses. Syria fears Israeli attack against its missile sites and other military installations. That cycle of mutual fear cannot be discharged by diplomatic efforts. It should be escalated beyond the other party’s tolerance. Israel should declare the immediate nuclear annihilation of Syria in response to its rocket shower on Israel.
Assad believes he can get the Golan Heights back without winning the war, just like Egypt got the Sinai though lost the war in 1973. Threat of regional destabilization will put the US pressure on Israel to cede the Golan Heights to Syria. Assad, therefore, can start a war to lose it. Olmert needs a major victorious war for his career. Iran wants a war in the Middle East to defuse attention to its nuclear program. IDF needs a war with conventional enemy to recover its reputation losses in fighting guerrillas. The stage is set for a senseless war that everyone needs.
The concept of crushing fear fully applies to the Palestinians. The British quashed Palestinian insurrection in 1930s by overwhelming retaliation which included razing of towns, mass killings, and other orthodox military measures. Instead of provoking Arab insurgents with tales of Palestinian statehood, Israel should crush the hopes of Palestinians: kill every high bureaucrat and member of the PA parliament, ban political associations, shoot suspected guerrillas, and transfer the population. Palestine with a hope is better for Israel than a hopeless Palestinian state.
“Take from my hand this cup filled with the wine of my wrath and make all the nations I send you drink it….. ‘So I took the cup from the Lord’s hand and made all the nations to whom he sent me drink it: JERUSALEM AND THE TOWNS OF JUDAH…..Pharoah king of Egypt…..all the kings of the Philistines [The West Bank]….Edom, Moab and Ammon [What is now Jordan]; all the kings of Tyre and Sidon; the kings of the coastlands across the sea; Dedan….and all who are in distant places; ALL THE KINGS OF ARABIA AND ALL THE KINGS OF THE FOREIGN PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN THE DESERT; all the kings of the north far and near, one after the other – ALL THE KINGDOMS ON THE FACE OF THE EARTH. And after all of them, the king of Sheshach will drink it too.” (Jer. 25:15-25)
Where did I here this line of reasoning last time? Ah, yes, when Ariel Sharon was steaming ahead with deportation of Jews from Gaza. Some said, he is just bluffing, nothing will happen, America will not let it happen, Jews do not deport Jews… So, when someone says, don’t worry about the Golan, it is safe, I am very worried, because it can happen. America has it’s problems to worry about and Israeli government is too spineless to stand its own ground.
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I wonder if it is a coincidence that a few days after the news that Olmert was willing to give up the Golan Heights the headlines started to bring out articles about a jewish “spy” (true or not makes no difference) and then the business about the attack on Syria’s nuclear plant was brought before congress.
I am almost certain that the ceding of the Golan heights back to Syria will fall on its face as it means revoking the Golan law in the Israeli Knesset. But my question to all our pundits is “what is the Bush administration doing” ….If, by giving up the Golan means “peace” between Israel and Syria why is the administration trying to put a spanner in the works? Smells fishy to me.
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