People should be scared – very scared. According to the BBC:
Iran has huge reserves of raw uranium and has announced plans to extract more than 40 tons a year.
Iranian officials say the Isfahan plant can convert more than 300 tons of uranium ore a year.
What could be more dangerous than nuclear weapons in the hands of crazed, Islamist extremists? Iran is the "most active state sponsor of terrorism." Human rights abuses in Iran are at the worst level since 1997. The power of nuclear weapons in hands of the criminally insane? Not a pleasant thought.
As it stands now, Iran’s mullahs will eventually fulfill their atomic weapons ambitions. The Europeans are more worried about making money from trade with Iran than they are about the country’s nuclear program. That leaves the U.S. again in the position of lone world policeman. Its options are few now.
Militarily, the U.S. is stretched to the limit, with its presence in Afghanistan and Iraq, as well as its many other commitments. And there is North Korea, who already has atomic weapons, to worry about. The Iranian people seem to be largely pro-American. One can only wonder as to the effects a U.S. military strike would have on Iranian public opinion. Would it help topple the Iranian regime, or would people there rally around their “leaders?” Israel has considered a preemptive strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, but those facilities are spread across the country and are most likely well-hidden and well-protected – issues that U.S. military commanders would also have to consider.
So we now seem to be left only with diplomacy. The U.S. will likely continue to try to refer Iran’s nuclear activities to the UN Security Council. If the Council ever does consider the issue, will it be willing to impose sanctions? The U.S.’s European allies have also been reluctant to play rough with Iran.
The U.S. should be working closely with and supporting Iranian expatriates. It should also be engaging in covert operations to support dissidents in Iran – perhaps even providing military assistance for a coup there. But will this happen?
Right now, we are left standing between a rock and a hard place.
Cross-posted at IsraPundit and netwmd.com
Iran Beating the Nuclear Buzzer
By Andrew L. Jaffee; netwmd.com
Just what is the Western world to do about Iran’s sophisticated nuclear program? Of course, Tehran’s Islamist dictators deny they have nuclear weapons ambitions, but few informed observers believe this.
The Iranian mullahs made a deal with the European Union (EU) last Sunday to suspend uranium enrichment. Tehran claims it will begin the suspension this Monday, but U.S. and other officials believe Iran is now rushing production of uranium hexafluoride gas to beat the Monday deadline. This gas can be converted into weapons-grade uranium.
The “deal” struck Sunday is just a tactical move by the Islamists. They hope to prevent the U.S. from referring Iran to the UN Security Council where economic and diplomatic sanctions could be imposed.
People should be scared – very scared. According to the BBC:
What could be more dangerous than nuclear weapons in the hands of crazed, Islamist extremists? Iran is the "most active state sponsor of terrorism." Human rights abuses in Iran are at the worst level since 1997. The power of nuclear weapons in hands of the criminally insane? Not a pleasant thought.
As it stands now, Iran’s mullahs will eventually fulfill their atomic weapons ambitions. The Europeans are more worried about making money from trade with Iran than they are about the country’s nuclear program. That leaves the U.S. again in the position of lone world policeman. Its options are few now.
Militarily, the U.S. is stretched to the limit, with its presence in Afghanistan and Iraq, as well as its many other commitments. And there is North Korea, who already has atomic weapons, to worry about. The Iranian people seem to be largely pro-American. One can only wonder as to the effects a U.S. military strike would have on Iranian public opinion. Would it help topple the Iranian regime, or would people there rally around their “leaders?” Israel has considered a preemptive strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, but those facilities are spread across the country and are most likely well-hidden and well-protected – issues that U.S. military commanders would also have to consider.
So we now seem to be left only with diplomacy. The U.S. will likely continue to try to refer Iran’s nuclear activities to the UN Security Council. If the Council ever does consider the issue, will it be willing to impose sanctions? The U.S.’s European allies have also been reluctant to play rough with Iran.
The U.S. should be working closely with and supporting Iranian expatriates. It should also be engaging in covert operations to support dissidents in Iran – perhaps even providing military assistance for a coup there. But will this happen?
Right now, we are left standing between a rock and a hard place.
Cross-posted at IsraPundit and netwmd.com
Posted by Andrew Jaffee at November 24, 2004 12:37 AM