Nothing can stop the Plan

Nothing can stop the Plan

Now that Rice has articulated again the US position on the direction of the peace process, it seems my contention as set out in my article "A solution devoutly to be wished" is right on the money;

Sharon and Bush have cooked up such a solution.

Due to 9/11/01 Bush undertook to defeat the terrorists and those that support them. This required a reappraisal of how the US should deal with the Arabs generally and the Palestinians specifically. Then in January of 2002, Palestinians were caught red handed with the discovery of the Karine “A” ship loaded with armaments and Arafat lied to Bush about his involvement. Bush decided not to deal with him again and stuck to his word. A few months later the Palestinians perpetrated a number of horrendous suicide bombings in Israel. Israel had to develop a plan, not just to protect itself but also to find a solution.

During the rest of the year, the Israelis travelled often to the US to work out a mutual plan. The details of that plan have been emerging ever since.

The plan was designed to not only win the war on terror with all that implied for the regimes that support terror but to also find a permanent solution to the Arab Israeli conflict.

Pursuant to this plan, the US invaded Iraq in the spring of 2003 and then released the Roadmap. Without hesitation Sharon agreed to the Roadmap suggesting he was one of the architects of it. Sharon had agreed therefore to a settlement freeze, the removal of “illegal” outposts and the creation of a Palestinian state. In return, Bush had to deliver on two promises namely getting all Arab countries to make real peace with Israel and forcing the Palestinians to give up on terror and incitement. All this was reflected in the Roadmap.

When Bush was planning his bold moves on the ME, he needed to protect his flank. He needed to get Israel’s agreement on the broad outlines of a settlement so that his end game would be clearer. For Sharon, he needed to know his concessions would bring peace.

It is because of this mutual plan that Sharon is riding roughshod over democracy and all opposition. What matters to him is that he deliver on his commitments to Bush. It was probably part of that plan that Labour be brought into the government to make it easier to accomplish.

I am sure that Bush has read the Riot Act to the Palestinians as well. In no uncertain terms he has demanded that they deliver on their obligations under the Roadmap. They have no choice.

Posted by Ted Belman at February 1, 2005 06:27 PM

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Comments

1. Tiburon said:

Ted?
"I am sure that Bush has read the Riot Act to the Palestinians as well. In no uncertain terms he has demanded that they deliver on their obligations under the Roadmap. They have no choice."
This is Hamas and the Al Aqsa Brigades you're talking of? The same death-worshipping homocide bombers we see daily in the news? While I'm hopeful that and grateful if Bush has "read the Riot Act' to the Palestinians", I can't take much solace in the chance that the former are even listening, or if they are - not simply rolling on the floor in paroxysms of laughter.

Ted, I accept the first premise of your article: - I agree that Israel must seek a permanent solution. But where's the 'fall back' in this grand scheme? See, it's not just Lebanon, Iraq and Yesha where the baddies dwell - it's that annoying little figure Pipes calls attention too - a mere 100 million souls throughout Dar el Islam fully committed to support Jihad, in one way or another. Gonna take a little time to 'root out the terrorists', methinks.

Meanwhile, what? Israel again concedes the Land it has no right to concede, for more empty 'assurances'?

I too agree that the Occupation is untenable, in short, middle and long terms. I happen to see it as one of the critical dysfunctions of the situation, but however, not one overtly challenging.

Occupation a problem? Cease occupying. Pretty simple and it's worked over 20 years in the Golan last time I looked. And for all intents and purposes, despite gross failure of nerve on many occasions (such as not policing illegal construction), in "east" Jerusalem as well.

Gee. Go Figure.


Posted by: Tiburon on February 1, 2005 10:30 PM

2. BobW said:

"Permanent solution to the Arab Israeli conflict" and "getting all Arab countries to make real peace with Israel" are expressions needing amplification. The governments of the Arab nations-with only a couple of exceptions-do not represent the populations within their territorial jurisdiction as the concepts are understood in the Atlantic Alliance.

Egypt, with half the Arab world's population, has diplomatic relations with Israel. The situation does not yield Atlantic Alliance relations external to government to government contact and limited business. The area is volatile.

A "permanent solution" was tried in Lebannon. The "religious" component system of government collapsed. It is dangerous for Christians in Lebannon.

The overall situation appears that Israel will evolve into an enclave around an internationalized Jerusalem. The new "Palestine" will remain in existence as a function of continued donor funding. When the US oil industry relocates to Caspian fields, I anticipate both Israel and Egypt to have their foreign and military aid appropriations from the US up for review. We could witness a Shi'ite crescent from Iran to Iraq to South Lebannon to Gaza.

Both US and Israeli political plans and efforts will be eclipsed by social and economic forces. Eisenhower learned about this in Lebannon in 1959 and Reagan in Lebannon in 1983.

Kol tuv,
BobW

Posted by: BobW on February 2, 2005 02:52 AM

3. Per said:

"I am sure that Bush has read the Riot Act to the Palestinians as well. In no uncertain terms he has demanded that they deliver on their obligations under the Roadmap. They have no choice."

For sure they have a choice. The only thing they need to do is to pretend living up to their obligations (facilitated by an internal "hudna" among the Arabs) long enough for Israel to pull back to the green line, admit a few hundred thousand returnees, have their "Palestinian state" firmly established and funded by the US and the EU, membership in the UN, and associate membership in the EU (trade agreement). If the PLO and their terrorist offsprings just manage to hold their breath for 3-4 years (till the retired Bush, Abbas and Sharon have received their peace prices), and then revive intensified international pressure to have the 1947 UN partition plan implemented (already agreed to by Jewish organizations, they will say), the stage will be set for the final kill of Israel with overwhelming international (including US) support. There will be no country in the world ready to stand up for Israel, regardless what American grandstanders induce themselves to believe at present. Israel's most lethal enemy today is neither Palestinian, Arab or Islamist. The real enemy is President Bush who, like Clinton before him, is ready to sell his own grandmother for a legacy. Do not underestimate what his zealous and lunatic State Secretary may do to serve her master in this respect.

Posted by: Per on February 2, 2005 08:06 AM

4. Ted Belman said:

All your comments are duly noted and deserve a response. The democracy train has left the station in Iraq notwithstanding the insurgency. As a result Iraq is better able to fight it. Similarly, the Palestine train has left the station and to avoid a train wrech Abbas must deal with the terrorists. He knows this to be true. The US is not naive. It is counting on establishing a peace agreement even if there is terror. Once all issues are agreed upon and "peace" is established, the terrorists will lose their legitamacy, i.e. fighting the occupation or the existence of Israel. Terror will linger in Iraq and in Israel but the deal would be done. Next comes Syria and Iran.

Posted by: Ted Belman on February 2, 2005 10:24 AM

5. MrRiver said:

Hmmm, author Belman's own opinion is that his earlier article is correct, and he reprints large sections of the article in the same webspace. Is this a self-serving ego or what?
Why don't you just serve yourself to some more?

MrRiver

Posted by: MrRiver on February 2, 2005 05:12 PM

6. BobW said:

Shalom Mr River,

It helps to specifically address the subject matter with examples. Otherwise, readers will think an attack on the person is intended.

Kol tuv,
BobW

Posted by: BobW on February 3, 2005 08:28 AM

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