A short time later, Sharon executed a complete turnabout, in effect adopting the political platform of the Labor Party, which had been defeated in the elections. When asked why he had suddenly changed his mind, he explained that there are a million and a half Palestinian Arabs living in the Gaza Strip, and only 8,000 Jews, and we cannot rule another people against its will.
The “Demographic Demon”
Demographic considerations – or the demographic threat to the character of the State of Israel – have been decisive considerations ever since the establishment of Israel in 1948. It is because of these considerations that Israel will never agree to take in the hundreds of thousands of Palestinian Arab refugees who fled Israel during the 1948 War of Liberation – and their offspring who, together with the original refugees, number today, so the Palestinians claim, some 4 million people. These same considerations prompted Israel to refrain from annexing Judea and Samaria (the “West Bank”) and the Gaza Strip – parts of the historic Jewish homeland that were liberated in the wake of the 1967 Six-Day War.
Israeli demographers, basing themselves on the calculations of the Palestinian Authority’s Central Bureau of Statistics, maintain that some five million Arabs and 5.2 million Jews, as well as about half a million foreign workers and others, reside today in the Land of Israel, between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea. The Jews, in other words, according to these demographers, represent only 49 percent of the population of the Land of Israel. The demography within the State of Israel (without the West Bank and Gaza) shows the Jews constituting 76 percent of its population.
The annual rate of natural increase of the Arab population – again, according to the Palestinian sources that have been adopted by the Israeli demographers – is 4.5 percent, or double the rate among the Jews. By the year 2020, envision these demographers, the Jews will constitute only 40 percent of the population in the Land of Israel, and 70 percent of the population in the State of Israel. They recommend, therefore, Israel’s urgent disengagement from the territories of Judea, Samaria and Gaza, and the construction of a fence around those areas, in order to preserve the long-term Jewish character of the State of Israel.
It is in reliance on these figures and calculations that Prime Minister Ariel Sharon explained why he had turned from an out-and-out opponent of the separation fence into one who now is building that fence with all due dispatch. It was these figures that he used in order to convince the Israeli public to support his unilateral disengagement plan, while trying to instill in people the fear that, if they fail to adopt this plan of his, the Jews would soon be transformed into a minority in their own land.
The fact is, however, that these figures and calculations, of which Ariel Sharon made use, are incorrect. They have been deliberately falsified by the Palestinian statistical bureau, and were then erroneously adopted by the Israeli demographers and made cynical use of by Israeli politicians.
Juggling the Figures
A group of American researchers of the American Enterprise Institute, Heritage Foundation, headed by Bennett Zimmerman, Dr. Roberta Seid and Michael Wise, examined the Palestinian Authority’s data; the figures published by the Palestinian Ministry of Health , which reports on births and deaths; the Palestinian Voters’ Register, recently updated for the local elections and the elections for the chairmanship of the Palestinian Authority; Israel’s migration figures (via the border crossings at the Jordan River, into Egypt and via Ben-Gurion Airport) – and compared these with the Palestinian Authority’s official figures (the 1997 forecast, not the census).
The late chairman of the Palestinian Authority, Yasser Arafat, declared on more than one occasion that “it is the womb of the Palestinian woman that will decide the struggle for Palestine.” Well, the figures of the Palestinian Authority’s Health Ministry show that it has not been the Palestinian woman’s wish, in recent years, that her womb serve as a weapon. While the Authority’s Central Bureau of Statistics reported a 4.5 percent annual rate of natural increase, one of the highest in the world, the Ministry of Health of the same Palestinian Authority, which is concerned with reporting on births and deaths, and not with propaganda, in 1997 reported a rate of 3.8 percent and in 2003 a rate of 2.4 percent annual natural increase. Compare this to the Jewish rate of natural increase, which stands at 2.5 percent!
An examination of the data at the border crossings revealed the opposite situation: a negative migration balance of some 10,000 persons per year. Another 350,000 people living in eastern Jerusalem and in other parts of Israel were, it transpires, counted twice: once by the Palestinian Authority as its citizens, and another time by the Israeli demographers as Arabs living in Israel.
When all this is put together, it turns out that this juggling of the figures has produced an additional 1.5 million Arabs in the area between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea! The Jews, in other words, contrary to what we have been told, represent 80 percent of the population of the State of Israel and 60 percent of the population between the Jordan and the Sea. These figures, moreover, have held steady since 1967.
“Lies and Statistics”
We’ve all heard the saying, “There are lies, there are damn lies and there are statistics.” Apparently, there is a still lower category that is reserved for certain demographic studies that are utilized as weapons in the struggle for public opinion in Israel. The true figures prove that there is no urgent necessity whatever to undertake ill-considered unilateral steps of any kind. On the other hand, it is clear already today that Sharon’s disengagement plan will bring about a serious deterioration in Israel’s security situation. The Gaza Strip will be transformed into the biggest terrorist base in the world, and when medium- and long-range rockets are smuggled into Israeli territory from the Egyptian-held Sinai desert, Israel will be left with no choice but to recapture and hold this territory – after having already proclaimed its intention to “disengage” from it.
The thousands of Jewish residents of the villages located there will be forcibly uprooted and transferred from their homes, and the country will be driven to the very brink of civil war – without this serving the interests of the nation or its security, and without any kind of peace agreement with the Palestinians.
It seems that when logic and reason failed to bring about a decision in the legitimate debate being conducted in Israel, a debate in the sphere of beliefs and opinions, a number of cynical politicians enlisted so-called “scientific” statistics in order to tip the scale in this debate in their favor. And this time it was the policymakers of Israel who mobilized “the womb of the Palestinian woman” for their arsenal.
DEMOGRAPHY AS DEMAGOGUERY, by MK Prof. Arieh Eldad
Editor's note: Over the coming days, I will post articles penned by MK Prof. Arieh Eldad; the current post is the first in the series. The articles are reproduced with the author's permission, for which I am most grateful. Also see IsraPundit's post on Prof Eldad's site.
Every thinking person forms an opinion on questions of justice and injustice, good and evil, peace and war, faith or denial. The positions we adopt are based on the education we have received, on our life experience and on the world view we would like to bequeath to our children. We are prepared to listen to “the other side,” just as we are ready to defend our beliefs and our views.
We do not, however, argue with facts. Facts, therefore, constitute a powerful weapon.
In Israel’s last election campaign, Ariel Sharon ran for the premiership against the Chairman of the Labor Party, Amram Mitzna. Mitzna proposed a unilateral withdrawal from one Jewish village in the Gaza Strip. Sharon was vehemently opposed to such a withdrawal, explaining to all and sundry why and how a move of that kind would be a prize for terror, and speaking of the great strategic importance of the Israeli presence in that area. Judging by the outcome of the elections, his explanations convinced the Israeli voters, who gave Sharon’s Likud Party one-third of the seats in the Knesset, enabling him to form the new government after the elections.
A short time later, Sharon executed a complete turnabout, in effect adopting the political platform of the Labor Party, which had been defeated in the elections. When asked why he had suddenly changed his mind, he explained that there are a million and a half Palestinian Arabs living in the Gaza Strip, and only 8,000 Jews, and we cannot rule another people against its will.
The “Demographic Demon”
Demographic considerations – or the demographic threat to the character of the State of Israel – have been decisive considerations ever since the establishment of Israel in 1948. It is because of these considerations that Israel will never agree to take in the hundreds of thousands of Palestinian Arab refugees who fled Israel during the 1948 War of Liberation – and their offspring who, together with the original refugees, number today, so the Palestinians claim, some 4 million people. These same considerations prompted Israel to refrain from annexing Judea and Samaria (the “West Bank”) and the Gaza Strip – parts of the historic Jewish homeland that were liberated in the wake of the 1967 Six-Day War.
Israeli demographers, basing themselves on the calculations of the Palestinian Authority’s Central Bureau of Statistics, maintain that some five million Arabs and 5.2 million Jews, as well as about half a million foreign workers and others, reside today in the Land of Israel, between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea. The Jews, in other words, according to these demographers, represent only 49 percent of the population of the Land of Israel. The demography within the State of Israel (without the West Bank and Gaza) shows the Jews constituting 76 percent of its population.
The annual rate of natural increase of the Arab population – again, according to the Palestinian sources that have been adopted by the Israeli demographers – is 4.5 percent, or double the rate among the Jews. By the year 2020, envision these demographers, the Jews will constitute only 40 percent of the population in the Land of Israel, and 70 percent of the population in the State of Israel. They recommend, therefore, Israel’s urgent disengagement from the territories of Judea, Samaria and Gaza, and the construction of a fence around those areas, in order to preserve the long-term Jewish character of the State of Israel.
It is in reliance on these figures and calculations that Prime Minister Ariel Sharon explained why he had turned from an out-and-out opponent of the separation fence into one who now is building that fence with all due dispatch. It was these figures that he used in order to convince the Israeli public to support his unilateral disengagement plan, while trying to instill in people the fear that, if they fail to adopt this plan of his, the Jews would soon be transformed into a minority in their own land.
The fact is, however, that these figures and calculations, of which Ariel Sharon made use, are incorrect. They have been deliberately falsified by the Palestinian statistical bureau, and were then erroneously adopted by the Israeli demographers and made cynical use of by Israeli politicians.
Juggling the Figures
A group of American researchers of the American Enterprise Institute, Heritage Foundation, headed by Bennett Zimmerman, Dr. Roberta Seid and Michael Wise, examined the Palestinian Authority’s data; the figures published by the Palestinian Ministry of Health , which reports on births and deaths; the Palestinian Voters’ Register, recently updated for the local elections and the elections for the chairmanship of the Palestinian Authority; Israel’s migration figures (via the border crossings at the Jordan River, into Egypt and via Ben-Gurion Airport) – and compared these with the Palestinian Authority’s official figures (the 1997 forecast, not the census).
The late chairman of the Palestinian Authority, Yasser Arafat, declared on more than one occasion that “it is the womb of the Palestinian woman that will decide the struggle for Palestine.” Well, the figures of the Palestinian Authority’s Health Ministry show that it has not been the Palestinian woman’s wish, in recent years, that her womb serve as a weapon. While the Authority’s Central Bureau of Statistics reported a 4.5 percent annual rate of natural increase, one of the highest in the world, the Ministry of Health of the same Palestinian Authority, which is concerned with reporting on births and deaths, and not with propaganda, in 1997 reported a rate of 3.8 percent and in 2003 a rate of 2.4 percent annual natural increase. Compare this to the Jewish rate of natural increase, which stands at 2.5 percent!
An examination of the data at the border crossings revealed the opposite situation: a negative migration balance of some 10,000 persons per year. Another 350,000 people living in eastern Jerusalem and in other parts of Israel were, it transpires, counted twice: once by the Palestinian Authority as its citizens, and another time by the Israeli demographers as Arabs living in Israel.
When all this is put together, it turns out that this juggling of the figures has produced an additional 1.5 million Arabs in the area between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea! The Jews, in other words, contrary to what we have been told, represent 80 percent of the population of the State of Israel and 60 percent of the population between the Jordan and the Sea. These figures, moreover, have held steady since 1967.
“Lies and Statistics”
We’ve all heard the saying, “There are lies, there are damn lies and there are statistics.” Apparently, there is a still lower category that is reserved for certain demographic studies that are utilized as weapons in the struggle for public opinion in Israel. The true figures prove that there is no urgent necessity whatever to undertake ill-considered unilateral steps of any kind. On the other hand, it is clear already today that Sharon’s disengagement plan will bring about a serious deterioration in Israel’s security situation. The Gaza Strip will be transformed into the biggest terrorist base in the world, and when medium- and long-range rockets are smuggled into Israeli territory from the Egyptian-held Sinai desert, Israel will be left with no choice but to recapture and hold this territory – after having already proclaimed its intention to “disengage” from it.
The thousands of Jewish residents of the villages located there will be forcibly uprooted and transferred from their homes, and the country will be driven to the very brink of civil war – without this serving the interests of the nation or its security, and without any kind of peace agreement with the Palestinians.
It seems that when logic and reason failed to bring about a decision in the legitimate debate being conducted in Israel, a debate in the sphere of beliefs and opinions, a number of cynical politicians enlisted so-called “scientific” statistics in order to tip the scale in this debate in their favor. And this time it was the policymakers of Israel who mobilized “the womb of the Palestinian woman” for their arsenal.
Posted by Joseph Alexander Norland at May 25, 2005 08:03 AM