Given that Rafsanjani, currently the head of Iran's Expediency Council, is the candidate most likely to win the June 17 presidential election, the statement is significant on several levels. First, it signals Washington that Tehran is ready to elevate backchannel dealings to proper bilateral relations. Second, Rafsanjani is striking a note that should resound with a significant portion of Iranians who want political reform at home and better relations with the West. In this way, Rafsanjani -- who is one of the top leaders of the conservative clerical establishment -- is seeking support from the reformists that will help him to tread a difficult line.
Meanwhile, it long has been our view that Iran's major objective in pushing for a nuclear program is to gain U.S. recognition -- and thus, security for the clerical regime. So while other senior officials wage the battle over Tehran's nuclear program, Rafsanjani is trying to project a more moderate image of the regime.
It is ironic to note the parallels emerging between Rafsanjani and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon -- two leaders who both hail from hard-line, conservative political factions in their countries. Today, both are spearheading policy initiatives that have been championed by their political opponents: in Iran's case, repairing relations with the United States; in Israel's, withdrawing forces from Palestinian territories. But more significantly, both men are alone, in their own contexts, in their ability to muster sufficiently broad support to pull off the initiatives.
Rafsanjani is the only politician in Iran who does not have to worry about looking like a sellout to the United States among the hardliners -- and for the reformists, he is the only one who can get the job done. This is why he is referred to as the leader of the pragmatic conservatives -- a middle faction between the two ideological poles.
From Washington's perspective, Rafsanjani's past dealings with the United States and Israel on the Iran-contra affair could be enough to satisfy the Bush administration. Besides, the United States needs an individual who not only can be worked with, but one who can speak for his country and deliver on any deals that might be struck.
In the middle of all this, another development has occurred that is sure to pique U.S. interest: Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi traveled to Iraq and pledged that Tehran will not use its influence there as a tool in its confrontation with the United States. Kharrazi also said Tehran would ensure that militants would not infiltrate Iraq from Iran -- an intriguing statement, since the United States currently is putting intense pressure on an Iranian ally, Syria, to crack down on jihadist infiltrations into Iraq from its own territory.
It is quite possible that Rafsanjani has decided that in his next administration, he will not allow Iranian-Syrian relations to sour the prospects of better relations with the United States. But he still holds the nuclear wild card up his sleeve.
US and Iran
Stratfor
IRAN
Former Iranian President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who is now seeking another term as president, said in a May 19 interview with Reuters that he wants to mend relations with the United States, but that Washington must take the first steps to end the quarter-century of hostility with Iran.
Given that Rafsanjani, currently the head of Iran's Expediency Council, is the candidate most likely to win the June 17 presidential election, the statement is significant on several levels. First, it signals Washington that Tehran is ready to elevate backchannel dealings to proper bilateral relations. Second, Rafsanjani is striking a note that should resound with a significant portion of Iranians who want political reform at home and better relations with the West. In this way, Rafsanjani -- who is one of the top leaders of the conservative clerical establishment -- is seeking support from the reformists that will help him to tread a difficult line.
Meanwhile, it long has been our view that Iran's major objective in pushing for a nuclear program is to gain U.S. recognition -- and thus, security for the clerical regime. So while other senior officials wage the battle over Tehran's nuclear program, Rafsanjani is trying to project a more moderate image of the regime.
It is ironic to note the parallels emerging between Rafsanjani and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon -- two leaders who both hail from hard-line, conservative political factions in their countries. Today, both are spearheading policy initiatives that have been championed by their political opponents: in Iran's case, repairing relations with the United States; in Israel's, withdrawing forces from Palestinian territories. But more significantly, both men are alone, in their own contexts, in their ability to muster sufficiently broad support to pull off the initiatives.
Rafsanjani is the only politician in Iran who does not have to worry about looking like a sellout to the United States among the hardliners -- and for the reformists, he is the only one who can get the job done. This is why he is referred to as the leader of the pragmatic conservatives -- a middle faction between the two ideological poles.
From Washington's perspective, Rafsanjani's past dealings with the United States and Israel on the Iran-contra affair could be enough to satisfy the Bush administration. Besides, the United States needs an individual who not only can be worked with, but one who can speak for his country and deliver on any deals that might be struck.
In the middle of all this, another development has occurred that is sure to pique U.S. interest: Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi traveled to Iraq and pledged that Tehran will not use its influence there as a tool in its confrontation with the United States. Kharrazi also said Tehran would ensure that militants would not infiltrate Iraq from Iran -- an intriguing statement, since the United States currently is putting intense pressure on an Iranian ally, Syria, to crack down on jihadist infiltrations into Iraq from its own territory.
It is quite possible that Rafsanjani has decided that in his next administration, he will not allow Iranian-Syrian relations to sour the prospects of better relations with the United States. But he still holds the nuclear wild card up his sleeve.
Posted by Ted Belman at May 23, 2005 01:58 PM