Stop Blaming Sharon, Con'd

Stop Blaming Sharon, Con'd

Soccer Dad, who maintains a great blog and is one of our co-posters at IsraPundit, has written a response to my stop blaming Sharon post. In that post, I argued that disengagement from Gaza is justified as a preemptive strike against inevitable, worse international pressure on Israel. Either in the short term or the long term, Israel would have been pressured to hand Gaza over to the Palestinians - and the negotiations leading up to that handover would have resulted in far broader concessions on things like border control, water cooperating, even potential reparations. Withdrawing now avoids all of those concessions, and even leaves the (very slim) possibility that Sharon will get some diplomatic capital - capital that he can spend on annexing parts of the West Bank.

Soccer Dad goes through a series of arguments and concludes:

Central to Mere Rhetoric's case is that he argues that even Sharon wasn't forced by the Bush administration, he sensed that he would be forced... I just don't see signs of the pressure that he sees.
I'll go through his arguments, and then make some general conclusions. But ultimately, it wasn't pressure from this administration that ever worried us or worried Sharon - quite the opposite:
The case for disengagement becomes simple: the current administration has provided the most advantageous diplomatic situation that Israel has seen for the last 25 years. But it won't stay that way forever - there are already signs that Israel's diplomatic standing is slipping even in the United States... the only way to secure up to 50% of the West Bank is to give up Gaza while the Bush administration needs his support and will grant him the quid pro quo.
My point is not that the Bush administration is pressuring Israel - it's that for a time, they were the only ones not doing it. So action in the near-term under favorable diplomatic conditions is better than action later under what would undoubtedly be less favorable conditions. That this administration - with a generation of pro-Israel anti-Islamists in the West Wing and a President whose base considers support for Israel to be non-negotiable - that this administration is now joining the rest of the international community in pressuring Israel - is a sign of precisely how fast the world can turn on the Jewish state. So ultimately, whether or not Bush was or even was going to pressure Israel is beside the point.
But nonetheless, Soccer Dad's post is nuanced and well-reasoned. I'll go through his examples:
1) Norman Podhoretz's support of disengagement - For one thing Podhoretz's son-in-law, Elliott Abrams, had been one of the top administration officials in charge of the Middle East... if there was any pressure from the US to Israel Podhoretz would have known about it and registered his discomfort with disengagement... nothing in his essay suggests that he's gotten wind of pressure from the United States from the Israeli side either. I find the Podhoretz essay fascinating in that most of the views he recounts tend to be critical or pessimistic about disengagement and yet he still endorses the plan.
The assumption here is that Podhoretz would reject any Israeli concessions that were the result of American pressure. I'm not sure if this assumption is justified. And even if it was, Podhoretz's support is, among other things, predicated on the idea that...
[Sharon] promised that Israel would "strengthen its control over those same areas in the land of Israel that will constitute an inseparable part of the state of Israel in any future agreement."
... which is of course precisely the trade-up reasoning that I believe justifies the disengagement. Furthermore, even Podhoretz concedes the fickleness of Bush's support:
To be sure, [Bush] did "challenge Israel to . . . support the emergence of a viable, credible Palestinian state" by freezing "settlement activity in the occupied territories," by "permitting innocent Palestinians to resume work and normal life," and by pulling its military forces out of areas heavily populated by Palestinians. But these demands were themselves made contingent upon Palestinian action against terrorism, and in any case they played a decidedly subordinate role to the imperative of Palestinian reforms "based on democracy, market economics, and action against terrorism."
Which is all good and fine, until the Palestinians actually pretended to undertake reforms - at which point Bush was more than willing to treat Israel like a Bannana Republic and demanded Israeli concessions:
Bush told Sharon that Abbas is the elected president of the Palestinian Authority and must be helped. He asked Israel to do what it can to strengthen Abbas. According to sources in Sharon's entourage, the American message was, "Show that Israel is doing everything it can and more to help him. Israel cannot be seen as being the reason for his collapse, if it happens."
So I'm not so sure that Podhoretz's faith in President Bush's support for Israel is justified. Perhaps Bush wasn't openly pressuring Israel, but Sharon guessed that US support for Israel was fickle at best - a guess that has been overwhelmingly borne out in recent months by State Department anti-Israel pressure. Soccer Dad's next point is:
2) Recently Israel refused a request from Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice to transfer arms to the PA. Israel's refusal was, of course, sensible; the request was absurd. But if there was such pressure on a minor issue why risk the fallout of defying the administration (and the President's seemingly closest advisor) on a lesser demand if you give in on a major demand?
The fact that Rice was pressuring Israel to give arms to the Palestinians is an argument in my favor - so much so that I blogged it as such when it occurred. It proves that US pressure on Israel was and is inevitable. That Sharon drew a line in the sand and said that he would not give the Palestinians arms to kill Israelis with while he was also giving them land does not prove that he wasn't giving them land based on a perception of US pressure.
3) Mere Rhetoric noted himself recently a disturbing comment by Ehud Olmert. As Mere Rhetoric notes, he supports disengagement because it's a way to ensure Israeli control over certain parts of Judea and Samaria... If Olmert, who's been the government's bellwether, is talking about going back to the Road Map what does that say? Is it American pressure again? Or is it unilateral surrender?
Again, it could be that the international community forces Israel into even broader concessions than just disengagement. But that just means that Sharon's gamble to relieve some international pressure failed - not that he wasn't forced to make that gamble by the presence of international pressure in the first place.
4) Going back to Aluf Benn. Benn is a diplomatic correspondent for Ha'aretz. His article doesn't mention American pressure. Again (as with Podhoretz) if it was there wouldn't he have noted it? I know that a lot of reporters wrote of tension between Pres Bush and PM Sharon during the latter's recent visit to Crawford, but they seemed relying more on tea leaves, entrails and body language than on actual sources. (Herb Keinon of the Jerusalem Post actually reported that they got along great, IIRC.) In the past when an administration is unhappy with Israel there are usually lots of sources to back it up. Maybe it's the Bush administration's discipline. Or maybe the pressure isn't there.
The pressure is quite plainly there - Soccer Dad's #2 point about Secretary Rice is a straight-forward description of such pressure. And Benn has in fact written about the Gaza for West Bank trade-up - a de-facto admission that withering US and international pressure on Israel was inevitable without a withdrawal from Gaza.
The question is not whether there was ever specific pressure to disengage from Gaza. The question is whether Sharon was justified in believing that eventually there would be - under this administration or the next one. Despite outward appearances, Bush's support for Israel has at times been less than reliable - at one point, Sharon had to fly to the US after the Saudis had finished whispering their anti-Israel propaganda in Bush's ear for a week. If Bush could not be trusted as an ironclad supporter of Israel, then Sharon was and is right to be terrified of what a future administration could be like.
Anybody who wants to oppose disengagement has to provide a credible explanation for how Israel could have indefinitely sustained international pressure to leave the Gaza Strip - a burden that I think is almost impossible to overcome.
All this said, of course I'm not totally comfortable with my conclusions, let alone with my reserved support for disengagement. Soccer Dad's appraisal of my position is both fair and accurate: but taking into account the reality of abiding international hostility towards Israel, disengagement now is the best option Sharon had available.

[Cross-posted to Mere Rhetoric]

Posted by Omri Ceren at August 19, 2005 01:54 PM

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Comments

1. Uzi Kattan said:

What an idiot!
Sharon is to blame as are the Labor and Likud sicknesses who plotted this atrocity. Yimach shemam vezichram.

Posted by: Uzi Kattan on August 19, 2005 02:34 PM

2. Omri Ceren said:

Oh come now Uzi - maybe you disagree with the conclusions, but surely you can't think that it's idiotic to believe that the world is highly unsympathetic to Israel.

Posted by: Omri Ceren on August 19, 2005 03:02 PM

3. Peretz Rickett said:

I'd like somebody to explain to me why we should care about international pressure. The UN is nothing but a collection of bloviating windbags - what are they going to do? Invade? That would require direct US involvement. Whether any given administration is friendly to Israel is irrelevant - no administration could even contemplate such measures against Israel without burning its own political house down. So I just don't get it. Why would any policy be based on international pressure? Sure, you can consider it, but it shouldn't be a controlling factor.

Posted by: Peretz Rickett on August 19, 2005 03:30 PM

4. t said:

This article reminds me of the slogan "WE are German first". That one didn t work to well and it took six years to be liberated from the death camps! Why would we cave under US pressure for our own destruction? THe US govt has their head so far up the Saudi's ass it shows it would do anything to appease the creators of 911. Why doesn t the US appropriate Iraqi oil?

Posted by: t on August 19, 2005 04:46 PM

5. Omri Ceren said:

It's not that Israel _should_ care about US or international pressure - it's that Israel eventually always _does_ end up caring about international pressure. Does anyone really believe that Israelis would tolerate being in a pariah state, with citizens unable to travel to other countries and international companies unwilling to give them jobs. Or that Israel could long survive under US economic pressure?

Posted by: Omri Ceren on August 19, 2005 06:21 PM

6. sk said:

Omri, the ultimate pariah state is, one would think, North Korea. It's been around for a long time & shows no signs of falling part. Why not? Well, in part because it is useful to China, which props it up, and because our policians are too scared to take action against it.

Are you seriously claiming that North Korea can find security in this world and make no concessions at all but that Israel is some delicate flower that needs to cut out pounds of its flesh for fear of US economic pressure? You know what? Israel could have a real foreign policy that provided it alternatives to the US in every avenue. That it has not is an interesting problem having little to do with your visions of US threats. It may surprise to you hear this, but some regimes in the world don't like the US and would be pleased to improve relations with Israel if Israel were not such a US lapdog.

All things being equal, the US should have more power over Mexican foreign policy than Israeli policy. And yet, the US does nothing to halt an official Mexican government policy to evade our immigration laws. What does this tell you about simple conclusions based on the relative power of two states?

Posted by: sk on August 19, 2005 07:20 PM

7. Omri Ceren said:

SK: North Korea is willing to let its citizens starve, and they aren't allowed to travel accross the border anyway. North Korea loses nothing by being an international pariah - Israel loses everything. Seriously, do you believe that Israelis would long tolerate not being allowed to travel to other countries because their visas weren't accepted?

Israel could withdraw from the international community - but Israelis are quite right to be unwilling to do so. Bravado is little comfort when Israel's economy has crashed because US military aid has been cut off and Europe has ceased accepting Israeli goods - and when Israelis can't travel to any country to get away from that bad economy.

Posted by: Omri Ceren on August 19, 2005 08:24 PM

8. JP said:

http://www.townhall.com/columnists/charleskrauthammer/ck20050819.shtml

I hope Krauthammer is right but I doubt it. Regardless of the practical reasons for withdrawing from these territories the status quo has not changed. It has been reinforced. This is clearly exhibited in Arab/Palestinian rhetoric and "coincidentally" in the NYT article that C.K. alludes to.

I posted this because it parrallels Omri's position. I don't for one minute believe that Sharon blindly or selfishly or solely decided on disengagement. On the surface it fits too neatly into the paradigm. ie "Today Gaza, tomorrow Jerusalem." ie Occupation, Historic Palestine. ie Hamas "the political branch."

I think that addressing Arab violence would have been a proper and just response. The Expulsion/Disengagement doesn't address the aggressor. Not only does it bleed Israelis once again but it defines the future course.

I'd rather be told that I'm wrong and proof given.

Posted by: JP on August 19, 2005 10:29 PM

9. sk said:

Omri, you have not addressed the points that I raised, and you have introduced further errors of your own. I brought up North Korea to show that even the nastiest states seem to survive surprisingly well in our international system if they are useful to someone, even if not to most. In other words, there are opportunities even in the most inhospitable international climate. You reply with an irrelevancy--North Korea is full of starving people. Well of course, because it's a totalitarian regime with not a speck of capitalism. However, the domestic situation there does not derive from the US's enmity or from the "international community's" enmity, but from the regime itself. Indeed, the US even sends food over there, as does Europe. I used Mexico as an example of how many disincentives there are for strong powers (e.g. the US) to project their power economically or militarily. What don't you understand about this? This is the way of the world.

You want to say that Israeli is badly hated, and thus subject to "pressure" from its few (one?) friend. But then you fret that Israel doesn't want to become a pariah state. If Israel has so few options, that is because it already IS a pariah state. The thing is, the Israel Left (which has included much of Likud) has presided over the slide in Israel's international reputation. And if Israel continues its dysfunctional self-amputation, its danger will increase and its reputation will decline (if possible).

IN OTHER WORDS, Israel's bad status is an OUTCOME of Oslo-esque behavior. It cannot be otherwise, because no alternative has been tried!

US military aid is not necessary to Israel. What is it? $3 billion? That could be saved by not expelling Jews from Gaza. Europe not accepting Israeli goods? Oh Europe is great at enforcing embargoes. What will a European democracy do when there is demand for something made in Israel? Like, say, Intel chips? In any event, clearly Israel has no trouble selling to China.

Or, Israeli elites can continue to subvert their democracy and enrich themselves, lop off more land to serve as bases for their enemies, throw around more cliches about "the international community" and "occupied territories," and destoy the host on which they (the elites) are parasitic.

Omri, I'm not responding to you again unless I feel you have addressed my arguments seriously. Otherwise, it's a waste of my time.

Posted by: sk on August 19, 2005 11:15 PM

10. BobW said:

I read the post and the 9 comments. My comment is that the most important aspect re Gaza was not discussed. I've got a position re withdrawal and I've presented it here. Still, the critical point is being missed.

Israel lacks a representative form of government. The Gaza withdrawal was decreed as if the divine rights of kings was exercised. Now, turn the glass of water for a different view of the miniscus. The other side also cannot claim legitimacy. Thus, if the PM refused to withdraw from Gaza, the citizenry would still be divided WITH CHARGES OF ILLEGITIMACY.

There is a second segment to my comment. Israel lacks the schools to teach Jewish statesmanship. A western audience accomodates representative political concepts much differently than those Jews from the former Soviet Union. Arab Megreb Jews also hold to different views.

Omri, how would Norman Podhoretz or Elliott Abrams know about all US pressure on Israel? If I read the names Richard Luger (Senate Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman) or John Warner (Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman), I wouldn't be typing this. How would Podhoretz or Abrams know if IRS gave a favorable tax ruling to, let us say, an oil company? Could this not place pressure on Israel? A change in the armaments trade regulations of a third country could pressure Israel. I doubt if Podhoretz or Abrams knows when all countries take actions affecting international commerce and thus Israel.

Without a representative form of government based on geographic areas fielding political representative to the Knesset, even the new enclave of Israel will not survive. A Jewish government is urgently needed.

Kol tuv,
BobW

Posted by: BobW on August 20, 2005 04:03 AM

11. Ted Belman said:

SK

You are wrong to draw comparisons to N. Korea. Israel is the pariah state par excellance. According to European polls it is the greatest danger to world peace. North Korea amd Iran barely worth a mention. Also, Israel and Jews are an emotive issue. They are hated. Neither N. Korea nor Iran are hated.

No one likes top swim up stream all the time. The answer you suggest is to find another stream. Would China use its veto in the SC to protect Israel? They are a huge importer of oil. Would tghey alienate tghe Arab world. They also have a Muslim problem. What different stream are you talking about.

As for the $3 billion, Israel is trying to wean itself away from it. Israel has many options in doing so like selling military hardware where it wants and producing military planes etc. So I agree with you on that.

I don't see disengagement as a reward for terror. I see it as in Israel's best interest. Gaza was a burden and not a benefit. Israel is stronger for having gotten out. Stronger to deal with terror and stronger to resist pressure. The hated Roadmap will now be used as a shield. The Pals must fulfill their obligations before before the second stage comes up. All attemps by the Quartet to bypass their Roadmap should be resisted.

Posted by: Ted Belman on August 20, 2005 08:34 AM

12. Omri Ceren said:

SK: as I understand your position - and please correct me if I'm wrong, I'm not trying to caricature you for the sake of argument - it's that Israel is already as much of a pariah state as it possibly could be (or: that the international community has no pressure left with which to leverage Israeli concessions). Only such an assumption could possibly justify your apparent view that Israel need not heed international pressure. I don't think that, if properly examined, that assumption could be defended. At a minimum, international pressure could cut off the following:
(1) Israeli's ability to travel overseas,
(2) export markets for Israeli goods which are necessary for their economy - your claim that European democracies would bow to popular pressure for Israeli goods is counter-intuitive: pressure for embargoes against Israeli goods are popular and bottom-up in Europe, not top-down),
(3) military assistance in the form of hardware and intelligence necessary for Israeli defense (I can't imagine you were serious in your glib claim that "US military aid is not necessary to Israel... [and] could be saved by not expelling Jews from Gaza").
For you to be right, SK, the world would need to lack either the motivation or the means to harm Israel. It seems to me undeniable that they lack neither.


BobW: the point about Podhoretz and Abrams was Soccer Dad's point, not mine. I conclude that there's US pressure on Israel the same way everyone else does: by reading about it in the newspaper.

Posted by: Omri Ceren on August 20, 2005 10:54 PM

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