Disengaging from Oslo
Disengaging from Oslo
Dr Gabriel Dekel
Looking at the upcoming Disengagement – I see the image of a traffic accident victim lying on the ground. His chest is squashed by a damaged vehicle, but he is still breathing. A rescue team arrives and lifts the vehicle. Then the victim’s chest is bursting and he dies. This victim is Israel’s present status quo, that is since the Oslo process has started. The lifting of the vehicle by the rescuers is Disengagement , and the death is the end of this present status quo.
Disengagement is a catalyst leading to the emergence of a new and acute reality. The level of violence emanating from Gaza will be unsustainable, as the impact will reach heights unseen since the War of Independence. Israel will have to deal with a problem of Jewish refugees. No government will be able to withstand the public outcry, wave of emigration, international disinvestment, high unemployment and the social havoc consequent to massive attacks from the Gaza. If the government of Israel will halt massive and prolonged waves of retaliation – it will collapse. In the absence of efforts to put down the attacks, or until a stable government is formed - law and order will break down. One can see the emergence of Israeli guerrilla forces supported by breakaway army units.
International pressures at that stage will be considered by many Israelis no more then background noise. There are two options from hereon: The government of Israel will pursue, at all cost, a course of relentless and heavy retaliation which will result in the total destruction of the Palestinian society, or – the government of Israel will succumb to international pressures and accepts a “balanced” quid-pro-quo style of retaliation. In the latter case the government will collapse or lose control over its citizens. The social chaos will lead to the creation of a more decisive government or to a military coup. Any new regime will have to consider a war-to-the-end option.
It is hard to predict the international status of Israel when all this ends with a mass flight of Palestinians. One can guess that by then civil norms will change everywhere following global terrorists attacks and a war against Iranian nuclear development. Israel may need to go through a phase of international isolation until the world takes a more pro-active effort against Jihad. The new Palestinian refugee problem by then, will be blended in a new world order - that is if the West is able to defeat the Jihadists. If Jihad goes on for another generation – well, in that case Israel will be in a good company of the global miserable.
Posted by Ted Belman at August 3, 2005 08:03 AM
Trackback Pings
TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.israpundit.com/mt-tb.cgi/9799
Disengaging from Oslo
Dr Gabriel Dekel
Looking at the upcoming Disengagement – I see the image of a traffic accident victim lying on the ground. His chest is squashed by a damaged vehicle, but he is still breathing. A rescue team arrives and lifts the vehicle. Then the victim’s chest is bursting and he dies. This victim is Israel’s present status quo, that is since the Oslo process has started. The lifting of the vehicle by the rescuers is Disengagement , and the death is the end of this present status quo.
Disengagement is a catalyst leading to the emergence of a new and acute reality. The level of violence emanating from Gaza will be unsustainable, as the impact will reach heights unseen since the War of Independence. Israel will have to deal with a problem of Jewish refugees. No government will be able to withstand the public outcry, wave of emigration, international disinvestment, high unemployment and the social havoc consequent to massive attacks from the Gaza. If the government of Israel will halt massive and prolonged waves of retaliation – it will collapse. In the absence of efforts to put down the attacks, or until a stable government is formed - law and order will break down. One can see the emergence of Israeli guerrilla forces supported by breakaway army units.
International pressures at that stage will be considered by many Israelis no more then background noise. There are two options from hereon: The government of Israel will pursue, at all cost, a course of relentless and heavy retaliation which will result in the total destruction of the Palestinian society, or – the government of Israel will succumb to international pressures and accepts a “balanced” quid-pro-quo style of retaliation. In the latter case the government will collapse or lose control over its citizens. The social chaos will lead to the creation of a more decisive government or to a military coup. Any new regime will have to consider a war-to-the-end option.
It is hard to predict the international status of Israel when all this ends with a mass flight of Palestinians. One can guess that by then civil norms will change everywhere following global terrorists attacks and a war against Iranian nuclear development. Israel may need to go through a phase of international isolation until the world takes a more pro-active effort against Jihad. The new Palestinian refugee problem by then, will be blended in a new world order - that is if the West is able to defeat the Jihadists. If Jihad goes on for another generation – well, in that case Israel will be in a good company of the global miserable.
Posted by Ted Belman at August 3, 2005 08:03 AM