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Tehran Rising
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BobW
said:
There's a reason the "US protective umbrella in the Persian Gulf is receding". The US is shifting to north tier Caspian oil because of the volatility of the Persian Gulf region.
The Russians need not wake up to the dangers of proliferation. They are wide awake. About the northern third of Iran was the Czar's territory combined with a sphere of influence. The post-Commissar Czars are conversant with the area. The real control is with PR China. Only until the Persian Gulf oil drops in cost, will Iran not derive benefits from it's de facto protecting power, PR China.
The intro mentioned Ilan Berman had articles appear in the International Herald Tribune. Thus, I wasn't shocked to read "Washington should..deploy defenses..from Iranian ballistic missiles.". Does Silver Spring, Maryland have this ballistic shield? Does California? The money is not present to protect the Persian Gulf countries - especially when compared to the return on investment when going after north tier Caspian oil.
Intelligence sharing only has value if organizations can evaluate and act on the material. The US restructuring is not ready to handle this. It takes time.
How can USG "empower" journalists? The USG did not empower the Wall Street Journal's Daniel Pearl.
Kol tuv,
BobW
Posted by: BobW on October 16, 2005 05:45 AM
Tehran Rising
A briefing by Ilan Berman
The Danger
The Iranian government is moving aggressively towards acquiring nuclear capability that it could easily transform into an offensive nuclear arsenal. The nuclear endeavor is clear: the authorities have hidden sites, are involved in plutonium conversion and uranium enrichment, and they have prevented the IAEA inspectors from entering certain sites. Further, sites that were inspected have been sanitized by removal of certain equipment.
Iran's nuclear endeavor started under the shah and inherited by the leaders of the Khomeini government whose mentality is cause for acute concern. The Iranians see themselves having a choice, to become like North Korea, which possesses nuclear weapons and thus stands out of the reach of the US, or to end up like Iraq, invaded and with a new government. Not surprisingly, they see nuclear weapons as a tool to deter Washington rather than cause an attack.
But Iran's nuclear capability is not Americans' only concern. The regime has long ranked high as a sponsor of terrorism. Its expanding Hezbollah's reach has led, for example, to the sending of 12,000 artillery pieces and short-range rockets that the Shiite militia in Lebanon now possesses for use against Israel. Tehran is also helping Hezbollah expand in Africa. American officials say Hezbollah's capabilities equal or exceed those of Al-Qaeda.
It once was thought that Shiites and Sunnis would not cooperate because of theological differences but it is now clear that the Iranians and Al-Qaeda have found common cause. At least 10 percent of Al-Qaeda's communications go through Iran, as at least some authorities there are aware. Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a Jordanian-born terrorist, won safe haven in Iran and his insurgency operations are now taking place in its Kurdish regions.
Tehran has also meddled in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Israeli officials sources state that Hezbollah has directed over 50 separate Palestinian terrorist cells in 2004, a sevenfold increase from 2002. Hezbollah (and Iran) are filling a political vacuum in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
The Iranian leadership perceives U.S. actions such as the operations in Afghanistan and Iraq as a threat and has been interfering in Iraq to avoid the democratization in that country as a way to stave off the same prospect in Iran itself. It has been increasing its activity in the post-Soviet states to co-opt countries that could be useful to the U.S. Tehran signed a bilateral security agreement with the Syrian government that said neither country would host troops that would be hostile to the other. In addition, Iran has increased its naval presence in the Caspian Sea, which is a substantial energy hub. Co-opting the countries in the region would have negative consequences on the energy market. (MORE)
Posted by Ted Belman at October 16, 2005 08:20 AM