 |
 |
 |
The Looming Demographic Catastrophe
Trackback Pings
TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.israpundit.com/mt-tb.cgi/11368
Comments
1
.
Jesse Jacksoff
said:
I don't believe this at all. The newly-created "state of palestine" will have almost no chances to survive. There is no room there for the millions of arabs, no natural resources, no water, no economy and, most importantly, no know-how or even political will to build a viable state and have normal relations with its neighbors. What is that "state" going to do with the armed gangs of murderous masked fanatics roaming the streets, short of starting a civil war to defeat them?
No country can survive for long by depending only on handouts as its fiscal policy, lawlessness in place of the justice system, hatred as its "national" motto, and jihadist aggression as its foreign policy. In addition, most arabs that are successful elsewhere will not move to that pitiful "state of palestine" that is doomed for failure from the very beginning. The whole thing is a non-starter, no matter how you look at it. I'd venture to say, it'll be just the opposite. With the Israeli wall on one side and Jordanian wall on the other (Jordan will make sure to protect itself from such a neighbor), there will be mass exodus of the arabs instead of the influx.
Posted by: Jesse Jacksoff on November 23, 2005 02:40 AM
2
.
BobW
said:
I agree completely with Michael L. Wise's material. However, he does not go far enough.
There have been discussions of an Anschluss between Jordan and the pending "Palestine". The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan exists partly because of US assistance. About 70% of Jordan's population call themselves "Palestinians". This large group does not support the Kingdom.
Much is too late now. The initial issue was not demographics but dissolving Israel's socialist government for a modern variety. Between Ben Gurion's Latvia 1930 on the eastern Med and Golda Meir's benefits package for the Arabs, more Arabs emigrated to areas governed by GOI. The rest is just plotting out a geometric progression next to a numeric progression.
Recently, I've posed the somewhat rhetorical question here as to why Cyprus, with it's split, has not evolved into an Arab area. I've asked why Malta and Gibraltar are not Arab areas. Also asked was why Singapore, surrounded by millions of Muslims with an inherent hatred of the overseas Chinese, did not become a Muslim area.
The historical "problem" and the current "problem" relates to inadequate social, economic and political institutions within what's called Israel.
Many tell me I'm wrong to say Zahal is a weak vestage of an earlier era. Their PR department is nearly as bad as the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs. It really doesn't matter if I'm wrong. What matters is:
Our heritage has passed to aliens,
Our homes to strangers
LAMENTATIONS 5:2
Kol tuv,
BobW
Posted by: BobW on November 23, 2005 04:18 AM
3
.
Ted Belman
said:
Jesse, the "Palestine" issue has one goal in mind namely to destroy Israel rather then to build a prosperous state. The question really is, will Israel be able to seal itself off from all this violence and mayhem. The fence alone won't do it particularly with the world pressuring Israel to integrate its economy with the Pals and allow them to enter to work. The coup de grace is the land link.
Bob (Cassandra) W I know Bob , its a tough job but someone has gotta do it....
Israel is changing, witness the Bibi budget. Keep in mind that in Canada and the US about 75% of Jews vote liberal otherwise known as socialist. Why not in Israel also. It is tough to wean Jews away from this mindset which itself is part of being Jewish.
I think that just as Old Europe is waking up to the need to legislate against Muslems to protect herselvef and her culture, so too, is Israel. Europe has botched it more them Israel has.
I believe that Michael is right to point out that all is not sweetness and light with the Sharon intentions and that just as Disengagement resulted in the Rafah Agreement which was never going to happen so too will the Sharon Plan bring other unintended consequences.
Posted by: Ted Belman on November 23, 2005 06:10 AM
4
.
michael wise
said:
Jesse you are correct. The newly-created "state of palestine" will have almost no chances to survive.
however, if sensible people sit back and israeli politicians offer no constructive alternatives, a palestinian state will be created on the west bank. in my article, i point out some of the possible ironic consequences. to view a sensible alternative go to
www.onestateplan.com and encourage as many people as possible to think constructively.
michael wise
Posted by: michael wise on November 23, 2005 10:06 AM
5
.
Jesse Jacksoff
said:
I am optimistic (if you could call it that) for only one reason. Given their beastly nature, the terrorist organization that calls itself "palestinian people" will eventually destroy all of its existing PR leverage, especially given the fact that islamo-fascism is getting less and less popular around the world. The "infidel" is waking up to this very tangible threat, very slowly but as surely. In light of that, I believe that the pressure on Israel to deal with the murderous jihadi savages as "peace partners" will diminish. There can be two outcomes to creating a "state of palestine". One: that state will die on its own because of the reasons I stated above and - Two: it will, as a sovereign "state", conduct a war against the State of Israel, and will be destroyed.
Posted by: Jesse Jacksoff on November 23, 2005 10:35 AM
6
.
Leonard
said:
Records show that around 600,000 arab refugees left pre-1967 Israel with the vast majority of them settling within the former British Mandate of Palestine - that is Gaza,Jordan and the West Bank. Its like a Londoner moving to Manchester, or a New Yorker moving to Washington ie they were never truly refugees in the true sense of the word. Around the same period around 900,000 Jews fled their homes in Arab countries - with the majority of them settling in Israel. So there was a population exchange -like what happened between India and Pakistan, or the Germans and Poland and Czechoslovakia after the War. It is quite extraodrdinary to work out how three generations later some 9 million Arabs claiming to be Palestinians wish to flood into the area claiming some fictitious entitlement of Right of Return. The region is already overcrowded as it is with possibly ten million inhabitants existing between the Mediteranean and the Jordan river. Water resources are scarce. Its simply inconceivable even to contemplate millions of arabs flooding in from outside, and those who are proposing it are playing a dangerous demographic game with the real objective to uproot the Jewish presence in Israel regardless of the devastating consequences. Any such proposal must be rejected outright as dangerous fantasy and not given any credibility. Any party that puts it forward as a serious consideration cannot be considered to have true intentions for peace but rather it putting it forward as the first stage towards the dismantlement of Israel. This remains one of the reasons why it would be suicide for Israel to relinquish control of the West Bank.
Posted by: Leonard on November 24, 2005 05:56 PM
The Looming Demographic Catastrophe
Whither Disengagement? Whither the Road Map? Whither Two-State Plans?
Michael L. Wise, One State Plan, March 6, 2005
Supporters of PM Sharon’s Disengagement Plan thought it was a very clever strategy. Evacuate Gaza, complete the Wall to include 5-8% of the West Bank territory and 80% of its Jewish settlement population, and then declare a Palestinian state. Sounds exciting. No more Arabs to worry about and a great opportunity for peace and prosperity. Singapore, Hong Kong, Benelux, NAFTA all Pollyannaish images. However...
A significant risk associated with all two-state plans is being ignored. PA control of any part of the West Bank will result in the arrival of 2-2.5 million Arab ”refugees” over a period of 3-5 years. The right of return of Arab refugees to Palestine is a primary demand. PM Sharon recently said that Palestinian refugees may not return to Israel but may return to the new Palestinian State.
The PA claims that there are over 9 million Palestinians worldwide. Upon declaration of a Palestinian State, many Palestinians living in poverty will migrate to Palestine: 450,000+ from Lebanon, 250,000+ from Syria, 100,000+ from Iraq, 200,000+ from Egypt, 1.5 million+ from Jordan, and 750,000+ from other locations. The opportunity to be resettled in Palestine with enormous global financial and political support will be very attractive and immediately accepted by many of those people. The EU, UN, US, Russia and others will finance the growth and economic development of Palestine. It is estimated that in the first year, 500,000 to one million Arabs will arrive and fill the hundreds of thousands of available empty rooms and homes on the West Bank. Within 3-5 years, between 2 and 2.5 million will arrive.
Recent studies (www.pademographics.com) have confirmed that today the population of the West Bank is at most 1.35 million. When the number of illegal immigrants (the anecdotal evidence is between 100,000 and 300,000 people) from the West Bank to Israel is verified, the number of Arabs currently living on the West Bank will certainly be less than 1.25 million. The ratio of Jews to the total number of Arabs in Israel and the West Bank has remained constant at 2 to 1 since 1967. No demographic threat! No demographic momentum!
Once a provisional Palestinian State is declared on the West Bank, 500,000 Arabs will be immediately and easily absorbed. As the Arab population in that Palestinian State grows, Israeli Arabs will recognize the long-term trends and the ultimate Palestinian demographic dominance of the area between the Jordan River and the Sea and they will begin to exert increasing pressure on the Israeli government. Demands for special rights, rejection of the Jewish State, and the wish to be identified with their brothers and cousins living on the other side of the Wall will mount; identification with Palestinian nationalism, flag and anthem will grow. The ongoing infiltration of illegal immigrants into Israel will expand.
A demand that Israel relinquish all territory captured through “military adventurism and aggression” will be heard throughout the world and in the UN. The green line will be identified not as an international border but solely as the 1948-1949 armistice line. No formal treaty ever recognized and no Arab entity ever accepted Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish State. No Palestinian Arab entity ever relinquished claims to its part of the 1947 partition plan, or indeed to all of “Palestine”. The international community, especially in light of the long-term claims that Israel forcefully evicted civilians from their homes in 1948, will decide to no longer recognize the acquisition of land through military conquest. Pressures will increase on Israel to cede control of parts of the Galilee and Negev to the Palestinian State.
In the face of massive Arab migration to areas west of the Jordan River, Israeli Jews will recognize the Looming Demographic Catastrophe. As they rapidly become a distinct minority, they will begin to leave Israel. Ironically, the first to leave will be the left wing pro-peace supporters who argued so strenuously for physical separation from the Arab population. It will be easy for them to justify abandoning the Zionist enterprise and to seek peaceful and prosperous lives for themselves and their families in other countries. Employment and a wide range of opportunities will be open to this educated and secure elite. As internal Arab restlessness and border violence grows, the remaining Peace-Now members will finally and belatedly demand that the PA charter be changed to accept the existence of a Jewish Zionist State. PA officials will scoff at all such requests. Indeed, no Arab group or government has ever recognized the right of Israel to exist as a Jewish state in the midst of an Arab Moslem sea. The new demographic circumstances will reinforce that position.
Disputes between the PA and the Jewish State relating to water and other resources, arms, access, employment, borders, and foreign treaties will grow and the resolve of the Jewish State to preserve its existence will weaken. Foreign investment and financial and political support for Israel will dry up.
As things go from bad to worse, Israel will be faced with a decision: capitulation or wage a full-scale war to halt and reverse the unleashed process and the demographic momentum. It is not difficult to guess what the decision will be.
Abu Mazen understands that the military option employed over the past 100 years has failed and will continue to fail. He is clever enough to understand that there are other ways to achieve the long-term objective of destroying the State of Israel. Sharon may unwittingly be playing right into his hands.
Posted by Ted Belman at November 23, 2005 08:32 AM