Political Earthquake in Israel

Political Earthquake in Israel

by IPF Staff with Guy Ziv

Yesterday, in an historic upset, Amir Peretz defeated Shimon Peres for the leadership of the Labor Party. Peres was expected to win by a comfortable margin, but Amir Peretz’ well organized supporters – coupled with relatively low voter turnout – produced a stunning victory for the former Histadrut chairman.

peretz.jpg

Amir Peretz has pledged to withdraw the Labor party from Prime Minister Sharon’s governing coalition, which almost certainly means that new elections are on the way, probably in March or April. The national unity government that brought Israel through the disengagement process is virtually dead.

Some Israeli commentators have gone so far as to say that Peretz’ dramatic victory heralds the beginning of a “new era” in Israeli politics. Why?

Q: Who is Amir Peretz?

A: Amir Peretz was born in Morocco in 1952, and grew up in Sderot, a persistently poor development town in the Negev. He is the former head of the Histadrut, the powerful Israeli labor federation that represents hundreds of thousands of Israeli workers. He began his national political career in the Labor party, and left in 1999 to form Am Echad, a social democratic party. He rejoined Labor in 2005, ironically at Shimon Peres’ invitation.

Q: What is Peretz’ appeal?

A: In a country where over 20 percent of Israelis live below the poverty line and the gap between the rich and poor is the largest in the developed world, Peretz’ calls for European-style social democracy are naturally attractive. He also appeals to the traditional Likud constituency: blue-collar Sephardic Israelis (Israelis who hail from Arab countries).

Peretz’ election signifies a major shift in priorities for the Labor party where, under Peres, the peace process was the primary concern. Social policy and poverty have now come to the forefront. Peretz is a populist with little resemblance to the more technocratic style of Ehud Barak or even Peres.

Q: Where does Peretz stand on the peace process?

A: Speaking at Yitzhak Rabin’s gravesite following his election, Peretz said: “I came today to make a vow to Rabin that I intend to do everything I can to continue his way, I intend to do everything I can so that [Rabin's] assassin would know he failed to murder peace.” Peretz favors negotiations with the Palestinians and a two-state solution.

Q: How does he differ from Netanyahu or Sharon? Or with other Labor politicians?

A: Peretz has fashioned himself as the anti-Binyamin Netanyahu. In the past few years, the two have butted heads over the former Finance Minister’s cuts to welfare programs and his privatization policies.

Peretz favors compromise with the Palestinians, whereas Netanyahu opposed even the disengagement from Gaza.

Ariel Sharon, like his mentor Menachem Begin, has used populism (albeit of a right-wing variety) to win the hearts and minds of Israel’s Sephardic underprivileged. Peretz, only the second Sephardic Jew to head one of Israel’s major parties, is a more natural populist.

Q: Does he stand a chance in the general elections?

A: No one knows for sure. Peretz did very well in traditional Likud strongholds, but his redistribution policies will alienate some members of the Labor establishment. Ariel Sharon still hasn’t decided whether or not he will stay in the Likud party, with party primaries pitting him against Netanyahu scheduled for the spring.

Sharon still enjoys national popularity and is the favorite to remain Prime Minister after the new elections. Nevertheless, Peretz’ ties to labor, his Sephardic background, and his sweeping economic-political vision could make him a formidable candidate.

Q: What are the implications for US policy?

A: If anything, Peretz is closer to US policy goals in the region than Sharon and certainly than Netanyahu. A strong backer of the two-state solution, he would, as Prime Minister, likely be responsive to US efforts to push the peace process to a successful conclusion. But that is jumping too far ahead. All we know at this point is that Shimon Peres, one of Israel’s greatest leaders, suffered a surprising defeat at the hands of Peretz. But the next critical steps will be Sharon’s. Will he create a new centrist party that will build on Gaza withdrawal and move on toward a rejuvenated peace process?

Prepared .

Posted by Ted Belman at November 10, 2005 04:37 PM

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