Why did Israel Agree?
Why did Israel Agree?
By Ted Belman
What we know for sure is that Israel caved in or gave in or simply agreed depending on your point of view. We don't know the full extent of the deal but are told it includes, an airport, sea port, buses and trucks to go overland between Gaza and the West Bank. We don't know what rights Israel has retained to terminate the agreement if any.
Let's take a worst case scenario. Terrorists, arms and ammunition will be significantly brought into Gaza. Some of them will find their way into the West Bank. Israel is buiding the fence which offers some protectgion on the west side and no protection on the east side. Gaza too has been fenced off. This week Israel has been using artillery to reply to rockets.
However the magnitude of the violence which will follow this agreement and it will be significant, Israel can deal with it but at what cost. I don't mean to minimize the new threat or to dismiss each and every casualty as acceptable but to put it in perspective in relation to the power of the IDF. Having said that this agreement rends usunder all Israel's anti-terrorism planning. Israel is greatly weakened by it.
And what about al Qaeda? Al Qaeda is growing in Sinai, Jordan and Gaza. How much of a threat are they? If you believe that they will win the war against the West then they are a huge threat. On the other hand if you believe that ultimately they will be defeated and destroyed, then it is only a threat in the short run; and they are a threat to everyone. The list includes Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, Europe and the US. No doubt this agreement makes it easier for them to hit Israel.
Israel knows that massive transfer is out of the question as is continued occupation. It had to find a way to live with the Palestinians. The Roadmap is the process to get there. It was a very bitter pill to swallow. Israel has agreed at worst to the Saudi Peace Plan. They did so either because the benefits of normalization with the Arab world and Europe was worth the cost or because it felt there was no other choice.
Similarly signing the border agreement looks like total capitulation but it may be that the hoped for benefits were worth the risk. If not Israel was given an offer it couldn't refuse. Normalization is so coveted by Israel that the majority are prepared to forgo territory and lots of it and to assume risk and casualties to achieve it.
What is clear is that it was easier for Rice to push Israel rather then the PA. Furthermore, I don't believe she wanted to crush the PA. Instead she wanted to give them a victory which would help Abbas in the upcoming election. The idea here is to continually build the institutions of democracy and the economy as the best way to work out of this hundred year war. Israel does not have any alternative plan. Israel is taking a risk that this process can be successful even if it means that Israel will end up with the pre '67 borders with exchanges of land and the sharing of Jerusalem.
Since the disengagement, the UN has been more hospitable to Israel, at least superficially, the Red Cross has invited Israel to join although on lousy terms, various Muslim countries including Pakistan have made overtures to Israel, Saudi Arabia has agreed to lift the trade embargo and other Arab countries will follow. Israel has improved relations with Egypt, Greece and Turkey. The list goes on. All this in three months.
Some will argue that they would rather Israel fight to get a better deal then to accept the Saudi deal. The price is just too exorbitant. Others argue that fighting to keep a few more kilometers is not worth the price in world wide ostracism.
Underlying this difference of opinion is the question of whether the Arab world will ever accept Israel. Of course Israelis differ on this too.
If Israel rejects the Saudi Peace Plan it should get off the Roadmap immediately and tell the world to go screw themselves. On the other hand if it believes that it is prepared to pay this price for full normalization, then it has to continue along this path.
I would have preferred that Israel hang tough on security and it certainly tried to. Condi couldn't deliver on Israel's terms and she wasn't going to go away empty handed. The lack of a deal would have ended the Roadmap. Israel on the other hand was not prepared to be the spoiler. They want the Palestinians to take the rap. So they agreed to a deal that would in effect give the PA more rope, hopefully to hang themselves, and not Israel, with. It reminds me of when Golda Meir decided not to preempt in '73 to disasterous consequences. She too didn't want to take the rap.
Both the suppression of the violence and the achievement of normalization are works in process. We'll have to see how it goes.
Posted by Ted Belman at November 16, 2005 11:01 AM
Trackback Pings
TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.israpundit.com/mt-tb.cgi/11276
1
.
zak
said:
these events are leading to the prophecys in ezikel ,daniel and in revelations read it for youself as litteral and look at the current events, but dont be afraid, our salvation is near!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: zak on November 16, 2005 12:25 PM
2
.
Charles Martel
said:
Ted
I admire your goodfaith effort to take a step back and consider all of the possible ramifications -- positive and negative -- associated with Israel's agreement on Gaza. When the Roadmap was first introduced, I was optimistic that Israel would not enter into such an arrangement unless she had an ironclad guarantee from the Bush WH that the terrorists and their infrastructure would be eliminated before Israel was pushed to make further concessions. Yet here we are, three years, several hundred Jewish deaths, and several thousand maimings later; Gaza has been made Judenrein, Israel is being bisected with sovereign Palestinian land links, and NOT ONE gun has been taken away from the terrorists. Abbas has stated time and again that HE WILL NOT DO SO and Hamas is about to become the elected majority in the Palestinian government.
A military genius, Sharon certainly understands the stakes here so the only possible explanation is that the Bush Administration has threatened Israel with sanctions if she doesn't go along. This is where we stand so don't be surprised if it gets worse.
Posted by: Charles Martel on November 16, 2005 02:56 PM
3
.
Laura
said:
Ted it looks as though as usual that you are providing cover for the Bush administration and its betrayal of Israel.
Posted by: Laura on November 16, 2005 02:57 PM
4
.
Ted Belman
said:
Charles I agree with your remarks in total.
Laura it was not my intention to provide cover for Bush. I am simply acknowledging the split in Israeli society that results in an acceptance of the Roadmap and Disengagement by its Cabinet. This can't be ignored. I simply described it.
I am totally against the border agreement as are I am sure, a majority of Israelis and certainly the entire defense and security and intelligence communities. I believe that Israel was forced to accept it though many Israelis on the left are celebrating it. Not being a fly on the wall I can only speculate what the US threats were or for that matter whether any carrots were offered such as building in Ma'aleh Adumin or the quick passage of the additional aid package of $1.2 billion. What is for certain the deal is a bad deal for Israel and has little chance of ending in good.
I was not providing cover for Bush. I was explaining the forces at play that led Israel down the garden path and pushed them over the edge.
Posted by: Ted Belman on November 16, 2005 04:04 PM
5
.
Sick of Israel
said:
Betrayal of Israel? Are you kidding me? Isn't it bad enough Americans are dying every single day in Iraq for the defense of Israel? How about the billions upon billions of dollars Americans have given to you?
It appears that Israel will not be happy until they have ethnically cleansed the Palestinians from the West Bank and Gaza. You know it, I know it, and the entire world knows it. You're not fooling anyone! With all the atrocities that Israel has committed, you're lucky you get ANYTHING from the USA.
Posted by: Sick of Israel on November 16, 2005 05:33 PM
6
.
Joseph Alexander Norland
said:
In the midst of the tragedy forced upon Israel by Powell-in-a-Skirt (PIS), the comedy by "sick of Israel" (above) is a welcome comic relief. But having laughed at SoI's comedy, we have to get back to the tragic facts.
Israel is beset by defeatists within, including Abu Omri. And Israel is beset by appeasers from without, including, especially, the contemptible EU and the EU chapter known as Foggy Bottom. There is only one answer to the concerted hyena attack: steadfastness. Millions of Christian Zionists in the US are willing to help, but they need encouragement, information, and, above all, they need the GOI to set an example. Until these requirements are answered, Israel's status will continue to erode.
Ted has listed some of the worst-case-scenario elements but he omitted two major components: dispiriting Israel's supporters and encouraging terrorists. For the former, Israel will pay heavily; for the latter, we will all pay heavily.
Posted by: Joseph Alexander Norland on November 16, 2005 10:08 PM
Why did Israel Agree?
By Ted Belman
What we know for sure is that Israel caved in or gave in or simply agreed depending on your point of view. We don't know the full extent of the deal but are told it includes, an airport, sea port, buses and trucks to go overland between Gaza and the West Bank. We don't know what rights Israel has retained to terminate the agreement if any.
Let's take a worst case scenario. Terrorists, arms and ammunition will be significantly brought into Gaza. Some of them will find their way into the West Bank. Israel is buiding the fence which offers some protectgion on the west side and no protection on the east side. Gaza too has been fenced off. This week Israel has been using artillery to reply to rockets.
However the magnitude of the violence which will follow this agreement and it will be significant, Israel can deal with it but at what cost. I don't mean to minimize the new threat or to dismiss each and every casualty as acceptable but to put it in perspective in relation to the power of the IDF. Having said that this agreement rends usunder all Israel's anti-terrorism planning. Israel is greatly weakened by it.
And what about al Qaeda? Al Qaeda is growing in Sinai, Jordan and Gaza. How much of a threat are they? If you believe that they will win the war against the West then they are a huge threat. On the other hand if you believe that ultimately they will be defeated and destroyed, then it is only a threat in the short run; and they are a threat to everyone. The list includes Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, Europe and the US. No doubt this agreement makes it easier for them to hit Israel.
Israel knows that massive transfer is out of the question as is continued occupation. It had to find a way to live with the Palestinians. The Roadmap is the process to get there. It was a very bitter pill to swallow. Israel has agreed at worst to the Saudi Peace Plan. They did so either because the benefits of normalization with the Arab world and Europe was worth the cost or because it felt there was no other choice.
Similarly signing the border agreement looks like total capitulation but it may be that the hoped for benefits were worth the risk. If not Israel was given an offer it couldn't refuse. Normalization is so coveted by Israel that the majority are prepared to forgo territory and lots of it and to assume risk and casualties to achieve it.
What is clear is that it was easier for Rice to push Israel rather then the PA. Furthermore, I don't believe she wanted to crush the PA. Instead she wanted to give them a victory which would help Abbas in the upcoming election. The idea here is to continually build the institutions of democracy and the economy as the best way to work out of this hundred year war. Israel does not have any alternative plan. Israel is taking a risk that this process can be successful even if it means that Israel will end up with the pre '67 borders with exchanges of land and the sharing of Jerusalem.
Since the disengagement, the UN has been more hospitable to Israel, at least superficially, the Red Cross has invited Israel to join although on lousy terms, various Muslim countries including Pakistan have made overtures to Israel, Saudi Arabia has agreed to lift the trade embargo and other Arab countries will follow. Israel has improved relations with Egypt, Greece and Turkey. The list goes on. All this in three months.
Some will argue that they would rather Israel fight to get a better deal then to accept the Saudi deal. The price is just too exorbitant. Others argue that fighting to keep a few more kilometers is not worth the price in world wide ostracism.
Underlying this difference of opinion is the question of whether the Arab world will ever accept Israel. Of course Israelis differ on this too.
If Israel rejects the Saudi Peace Plan it should get off the Roadmap immediately and tell the world to go screw themselves. On the other hand if it believes that it is prepared to pay this price for full normalization, then it has to continue along this path.
I would have preferred that Israel hang tough on security and it certainly tried to. Condi couldn't deliver on Israel's terms and she wasn't going to go away empty handed. The lack of a deal would have ended the Roadmap. Israel on the other hand was not prepared to be the spoiler. They want the Palestinians to take the rap. So they agreed to a deal that would in effect give the PA more rope, hopefully to hang themselves, and not Israel, with. It reminds me of when Golda Meir decided not to preempt in '73 to disasterous consequences. She too didn't want to take the rap.
Both the suppression of the violence and the achievement of normalization are works in process. We'll have to see how it goes.
Posted by Ted Belman at November 16, 2005 11:01 AM