What to Expect in Iraq After the December 15 Elections
What to Expect in Iraq After the December 15 Elections
The Power and Interest News Report (PINR)
THIS IS A GREAT ARTICLE
As Iraq prepares to elect its first permanent, post-Saddam Hussein government on December 15, 2005, the political class is preparing for the regionalization, and potential fracturing, of the state. Sectarian violence, a constitution that favors federalism over the functioning of the state, and pressures on the U.S. to begin withdrawing military forces are colluding together to ensure Iraq's fragmented future will not come without violent dispute.
The semi-autonomous Kurdish region moved one step closer toward removing the prefix on its autonomy when it began an oil-drilling project with a Norwegian energy company without federal approval. Shi'a political leaders have formed a power-sharing agreement among themselves while also giving at least tacit support to the escalating violence committed against the Sunni Arab population, as well as against secular-minded Shi'a, by Shi'a militias and government ministries aligned with the militias. The Sunni Arab population is likely to vote in much greater numbers, and see their representation increase, but they are unlikely to achieve success in preventing the Kurdish and Shi'a regions from undermining the role of the central government.
[...]At the surface level, Iraq's elections on December 15 will usher in a new era for the Middle East. Beneath the surface, the seeds for Iraq's fragmentation into regional blocs have already been laid. It appears unlikely that a newly elected government, chained to a constitution that only vaguely discusses how the government should function, will be able to hold Iraq together in the long term. MORE
Posted by Ted Belman at December 19, 2005 06:29 AM
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mal
said:
While American support for the war has been eroding since the start of the insurgency in mid to late 2003, the recent statements made by U.S. Congressman John Murtha have hastened public criticism of the intervention. Murtha, a U.S. Marine veteran who is considered to have respectable military credentials, released a statement on November 17, 2005 in which he called the U.S. intervention in Iraq a "flawed policy wrapped in illusion." Murtha argued, "Our military has done everything that has been asked of them, the U.S. can not accomplish anything further in Iraq militarily. It is time to bring them home." Murtha's blunt statements opened the floodgates for more congressional criticism of the U.S. intervention, ensuring that it is only a matter of time before the Bush administration initiates a phased withdrawal policy.
He is quoting Murtha. "respectable" Yes for the left wing he is.
Posted by: mal on December 19, 2005 08:43 AM
What to Expect in Iraq After the December 15 Elections
The Power and Interest News Report (PINR)
THIS IS A GREAT ARTICLE
As Iraq prepares to elect its first permanent, post-Saddam Hussein government on December 15, 2005, the political class is preparing for the regionalization, and potential fracturing, of the state. Sectarian violence, a constitution that favors federalism over the functioning of the state, and pressures on the U.S. to begin withdrawing military forces are colluding together to ensure Iraq's fragmented future will not come without violent dispute.
The semi-autonomous Kurdish region moved one step closer toward removing the prefix on its autonomy when it began an oil-drilling project with a Norwegian energy company without federal approval. Shi'a political leaders have formed a power-sharing agreement among themselves while also giving at least tacit support to the escalating violence committed against the Sunni Arab population, as well as against secular-minded Shi'a, by Shi'a militias and government ministries aligned with the militias. The Sunni Arab population is likely to vote in much greater numbers, and see their representation increase, but they are unlikely to achieve success in preventing the Kurdish and Shi'a regions from undermining the role of the central government.
[...]At the surface level, Iraq's elections on December 15 will usher in a new era for the Middle East. Beneath the surface, the seeds for Iraq's fragmentation into regional blocs have already been laid. It appears unlikely that a newly elected government, chained to a constitution that only vaguely discusses how the government should function, will be able to hold Iraq together in the long term. MORE
Posted by Ted Belman at December 19, 2005 06:29 AM