Hamas Victory Was Predictable
Hamas Victory Was Predictable
On the eve of the Palestinian elections, we predicted that Hamas would win enough regional seats to win the election (so we were extra-bitter when we learned this morning that Israeli intelligence didn't even consider that possibility). We can't claim absolute prescience however - we still thought that Fatah would place a strong second by winning on national tickets. Turns out, widespread support for terrorism runs deeper in Palestinian society than even we suspected...
Despite our earlier castigation of people on the right who are gloating because they've been insisting on the popularity of terrorists for years, we do want to point out that a Hamas victory was relatively easy to predict. We were certainly confident enough to predict that victory on the eve of the election, and not because we had access to any kind of cutting-edge polling data. 66 regional seats and 66 national seats - the regional seats were between individuals and the national seats were between parties. In the regional elections, Fatah disorganization meant that multiple Fatah candidates were running against single Hamas candidates. There were plenty of predictions that Hamas could sweep the regionals, but nobody drew the obvious conclusion - if Hamas was running 35% to 45% against Fatah nationally, regional sweeps would be overwhelming. We understand why media outlets are all shocked - shocked - by the Hamas victory. Willful ignorance, after all, is hard to give up. But we don't understand why the scenario was never even considered by Israeli intelligence
Even our pessimism regarding the Palestinian public's willingness to give up on its genocidal intentions, however, wasn't enough to convince us that Fatah would lose in national voting. We thought that the best argument that the Left would have after the election would be that "the Hamas victory doesn't mean that Palestinians love terrorism - it was because of Fatah disarray regarding regional seats." Jonathan at the Head Heeb was already hinting at that argument yesterday, when exit polls showed Hamas winning the regionals but losing the national polls. Turns out, he had to kind of take that back when it turned out that Hamas won on the national level too. Poll after poll after poll has shown that the Palestinian public supports terrorism - why is it so "shocking" that they elected terrorists?
[Cross-posted at Mere Rhetoric]
Posted by Omri Ceren at January 26, 2006 11:45 PM
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1
.
Salomon Benzimra
said:
Good question! Why is it so "shocking" that they elected terrorists?
But this question comes 14 years too late. On the eve of the Madrid Conference and the Oslo Accords, anyone could have read both the PLO Charter and the Fatah Covenant (Fatah being the main party founded by Arafat and under the PLO) and they could realize THEN that these documents differ very little from the Hamas Charter.
And so, the shock should have registered then. And all this charade about the "peace process" going on with the "Palestinian people" about ending the "illegal occupation" should have come to an abrupt end over a decade ago.
Thankfully, no one can cheat truth forever!
Posted by: Salomon Benzimra on January 27, 2006 03:31 AM
2
.
ShyGuy
said:
I predict the sun will come up tomorrow.
I also predict there will be nothing new under tomorrow's sun.
The world might be blind but that doesn't excuse us Jews from being extremly stupid for the last 20+ years.
Posted by: ShyGuy on January 27, 2006 04:08 AM
3
.
Jerusalem Posts
said:
Of course no-one should be surprised at the election results and about the Hamas majority.
After all, didn't the Palestinians in a recent poll, want to continue violence and suicide bombings against Israel?
Anyone who may have thought otherwise is either an idiot, or has their head buried so far up their own backside that they can't differentiate between night and day.
Posted by: Jerusalem Posts on January 27, 2006 08:05 AM
4
.
Leonard
said:
The backers of Israpundit have been vindicated. There has been a serious failure on the part of Israeli intelligence & international pollsters in their failure to anticipate this landslide victory. They were either willfully blind to the reality on the ground or in denial or both. The estimation by many who contribute & visit this sight that the Palestinians are a murderous evil & uncompromising force has been proved to be correct. Wake up Olmert & Kadima !
Posted by: Leonard on January 27, 2006 02:23 PM
Hamas Victory Was Predictable
On the eve of the Palestinian elections, we predicted that Hamas would win enough regional seats to win the election (so we were extra-bitter when we learned this morning that Israeli intelligence didn't even consider that possibility). We can't claim absolute prescience however - we still thought that Fatah would place a strong second by winning on national tickets. Turns out, widespread support for terrorism runs deeper in Palestinian society than even we suspected...
Despite our earlier castigation of people on the right who are gloating because they've been insisting on the popularity of terrorists for years, we do want to point out that a Hamas victory was relatively easy to predict. We were certainly confident enough to predict that victory on the eve of the election, and not because we had access to any kind of cutting-edge polling data. 66 regional seats and 66 national seats - the regional seats were between individuals and the national seats were between parties. In the regional elections, Fatah disorganization meant that multiple Fatah candidates were running against single Hamas candidates. There were plenty of predictions that Hamas could sweep the regionals, but nobody drew the obvious conclusion - if Hamas was running 35% to 45% against Fatah nationally, regional sweeps would be overwhelming. We understand why media outlets are all shocked - shocked - by the Hamas victory. Willful ignorance, after all, is hard to give up. But we don't understand why the scenario was never even considered by Israeli intelligence
Even our pessimism regarding the Palestinian public's willingness to give up on its genocidal intentions, however, wasn't enough to convince us that Fatah would lose in national voting. We thought that the best argument that the Left would have after the election would be that "the Hamas victory doesn't mean that Palestinians love terrorism - it was because of Fatah disarray regarding regional seats." Jonathan at the Head Heeb was already hinting at that argument yesterday, when exit polls showed Hamas winning the regionals but losing the national polls. Turns out, he had to kind of take that back when it turned out that Hamas won on the national level too. Poll after poll after poll has shown that the Palestinian public supports terrorism - why is it so "shocking" that they elected terrorists?
[Cross-posted at Mere Rhetoric]
Posted by Omri Ceren at January 26, 2006 11:45 PM