Peace Prospects and Possibilities

Peace Prospects and Possibilities

By Ted Belman

When contemplating what a final settlement might look like certain realities must be grappled with.

1. A “peace agreement” with the Palestinians even with ’67 borders will not guarantee peace. The Palestinian Arabs and the Arabs in general will still want to destroy Israel. The less we give, the more they will want to destroy us and the more we give the less we will be able to defend ourselves. That is the conundrum.

2. The land from the Mediterranean to the Jordan cannot sustain a population of 12 million people. (9 million now plus the refugees who will come back.) And certainly cannot sustain future growth.

3. Israeli Arabs see themselves as Palestinian and therefore are disloyal to Israel. This disloyalty will increase when Palestine is created.

4. It is too risky for Israel to contemplate further withdrawal with or without a peace agreement so long as Iraq, Syria, Jordan and Iran are unstable.

5. It is too risky for Israel to withdraw from the West Bank in whole or in part so long as the PA continues with incitement and doesn’t dismantle the terror organizations as required by the Roadmap.

6. The Palestinians have been nurtured on a diet of hate and that does not auger well for peaceful coexistence.

7. The Palestinian Arabs have never honoured any agreement with Israel.

Peace Plans

Dore Gold of JCPA emphasizes defensible borders. They include retaining the Jordan rift and the high ground around the Airport. It also includes thickening the Tel Aviv Jerusalem corridor.

Israel Beitenu leader Avigdor Lieberman emphasizes demographics. He wants to keep the settlement blocs and all of Jerusalem. He wants to cede the Galilee "triangle," its Wadi Ara valley and its cities that include Umm el-Fahm, Taiba and Baka al-Gharbiyeh which is almost exclusively Israeli Arab.

Benny Elon Plan demands the Jordan as Israel’s eastern border. He proposes that the Palestinian Arabs be citizens of Jordan but residents of Israel.

Mike Wise’s Jewish One State Plan, fixes Israel’s eastern border as the Jordan River. He advocates the absorption of the Palestinian Arabs living there over a 15 year period with loyalty oaths a precondition to citizenship, the expulsion of terrorists and the encouragement of emigration by the Arabs. He envisages Israel containing a Jewish majority of two thirds.

The PAIR initiative wants Israel to keep all the territories and to move the Arabs to a new state to be created out of Saudi Arabian territory.

The Saudi Peace Plan which is envisaged by the Roadmap contemplates the ’67 borders with an exchange of territory, the sharing of Jerusalem and normalization with all the Arab countries.

The Geneva Accords vary little from the Saudi Peace Plan.

There are many fundamental problems which each plan deals with in a different way. All plans are utopian either because what has been agreed upon can’t work or because what can work can’t be agreed upon.

For any Plan to succeed, it must have the backing of at least the US. The US won’t go it alone and will want to have the EU and probably Saudi Arabia on board. Right now the moribund Roadmap has the backing of the Quartet. It is not getting traction because of the Palestinian Arabs, Iranians, Syria and Saudi Arabia don’t want it to go anywhere.

In any event the contemplated solution is a political one divorced from reality on the ground. The outcome envisaged by the Quartet is not likely to be stable and therefore is unrealistic.

When it was first proposed, it was envisaged that Iraq would be stable and western oriented. Also it was envisaged that the Arab countries would be helpful rather then harmful. Just the opposite has happened.

America’s priority is to stabilize Iraq at a minimum. Israel’s priority to defend itself. Both also have to devise a way to prevent Iran from getting the bomb.

The priority of the UN is to survive.

The priority of Old Europe is to deal with its Muslim fifth column.

And of course, the Palestinians have a plan of their own.

Posted by Ted Belman at January 3, 2006 06:48 AM

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Comments

1. Ken said:

Ted, I know you understand what I am about to say and probably agree with it also.
Please promote the immediate transfer of all arabs from Israel now! The Jews will never know peace because the arabs do very much want to destroy them and Jewish leaders, who also must understand that, have no spine to execute that survival technique. In fact, I am surprised that they are even able to walk upright.

Posted by: Ken on January 1, 2006 03:30 PM

2. Per said:

Ken said: "Jewish leaders ... have no spine ... In fact, I am surprised that they are even able to walk upright."

Per definition, a politician is a person thickskinned enough to be able to walk upright without the support of a spine.

Posted by: Per on January 1, 2006 04:43 PM

3. kuhnkat said:

The one thing I haven't seen is what do the Israelis WANT.

Unless the majority of Israelis back a plan we are all p!ssing in the wind.

Are there any detailed polls that give us an idea what the jews who live in Israel are willing to sacrifice for??

Without the people coming together on a plan the US and Canada might as well start flying in large EMPTY aircraft and ships and evacuating the country.

Posted by: kuhnkat on January 1, 2006 07:25 PM

4. Lori Lowenthal Marcus said:

What Kuhnkat writes makes me think I finally understand why Israel was so happy to embrace the Red Crystal - it's an empty symbol. Please, G-d, let's not have that empty space stand for what was once Israel.

I'm also not sure I'd trust polls of Israelis at this moment - I just saw one last week that said 50% of Israelis would be willing to talk to Hamas if it would lead to peace. How can that sentence even be constructed? We must assume nearly everyone in Israel, or at least the ones who make themselves available to pollsters, is experiencing Cumulative Traumatic Stress Syndrome.

Having said that, I vote for either, or any combination of, the Benny Elon plan, Mike Wise's One State plan, or the PAIR initiative.

Posted by: Lori Lowenthal Marcus on January 2, 2006 10:23 PM

5. Leonard said:

As sad as it may sound - the reality is there is absolutely no prospect of peace with the palestinians in the immediate or distant future . This has been clearly demonstrated by the consequnces of the Gaza withdrawal. The rockets continue to be fired into Israeli cities and there is no effective palestinian leadership that is willing or capable of tackling the terrorists who fire at will. The reality is that Israel has no partner for peace that has become simply a pipe-dream or illusion, and that the Palestinians will treat any further withdrawals as simply providing them with a staging post to further assail the Jewish Stae which they don't believe should exist. Israel is not Russia and does not have any strategic depth, hence she cannot take any further chances with her survival and withdraw from any part of the West Bank. The lesson of Gaza must be learnt, as Churchill once said "you cannot appease a boa-constrictor".

Posted by: Leonard on January 3, 2006 06:31 AM

6. Ted Belman said:

Leonard

You will see from my next post that we are once again in agreement.

Posted by: Ted Belman on January 3, 2006 07:35 AM

7. mal said:

http://www.jr.co.il/articles/politics/theres-an-elephant-in-the-room.txt

Posted by: mal on January 3, 2006 08:07 AM

8. Jerusalem Posts said:

I agree with Ken. The only way for Israel to survive is to expel the hostil Arabs within it's borders. After all, if Israel can expel Jews, they can show that Arabs have equal rights, and expel them too.

As for Jewish leadership - I have to say the UK Jewish leadership is a spineless, toothless institution, because they're more interested in their jobs for life than they are in the survival of the Jewish people or Israel. Their idea of action is to not rock the boat or cause a stir and no-one will notice us. Because of their attitude, I blame the increase in antisemitic attacks on them for their non-action.

It's a shame the UK Jewry has landed itself with nothing but weak, appeasing leadership who take the politically correct line.

Will Jews survive the next 100 years? I can't personally see it, unless we're prepared to fight for our existence. In Europe, there's the same antisemitic rhetoric as there was in 1930's Germany and Jews didn't go out on the streets protesting, they took virtually no action until it was too late - because of weak, appeasing Jewish leadership. It's only logical that another European Holocaust will occur within the next 10-30 years.

That's why we ALL have to fight for Israel, for it's existence... because when the next Holocaust does happen, if there's no Israel, where will we go to?

Posted by: Jerusalem Posts on January 3, 2006 01:57 PM

9. Ed D said:

Jerusalem Posts, I agree with you and Ken. I'm going to make this statement as straight forward as I can. If war is the answer for for the salvation of Israel, LET'S GET TO IT!All of the scholars, bloggers, commentors have said enough, some with different ideas; the reality is (liberals take notice) Israel has no other choice but to cede it's land and we have another dispora.

Posted by: Ed D on January 3, 2006 07:01 PM

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