Pipes calls it as he sees it
Pipes calls it as he sees it
Israeli Politics Will Revert to Its Past by Daniel Pipes, National Post
I agree with Pipes. What made disengagement possible was that Israelis were more worried about the negative aspects of the occupation rather then the security threats from disengaging. So they were thinking short term.
I expect this to change because the reality is that the security threat is growing.
[...]I (Pipes)was skeptical of Kadima from the very start, dismissing it just one week after it came into existence as an escapist venture that "will (1) fall about as abruptly as it has arisen and (2) leave behind a meager legacy." If Sharon's career is now over, so is Kadima's. He created it, he ran it, he decided its policies, and none else can now control its fissiparous elements. Without Sharon, Kadima's constituent elements will drift back to their old homes in Labour, Likud, and elsewhere. With a thud, Israeli politics return to normal.
Likud, expected to slip into a dismal third place in the March voting, stands the most to gain from Sharon's exit. Kadima's members came disproportionately from its ranks and now Likud conceivably could, under the forceful leadership of Benjamin Netanyahu, do well enough to remain in power. Likud's prospects look all the brighter given that Labour has just elected a radical and untried new leader, Amir Peretz.
More broadly, the sudden leftward turn of Israeli politics in the wake of Sharon's personal turn to the left will stop and perhaps even be reversed.
Turning to Israeli relations with the Palestinians, Sharon made monumental mistakes in recent months. In particular, the withdrawal of all Israelis from Gaza confirmed for Palestinians that violence works, prompting a barrage of rockets on Israeli territory and an inflammation of the political temperature.
As Israel settles back to a more normal state, with no politician enjoying Sharon's outsized popularity, governmental actions will again come under closer scrutiny. The result is likely to be a less escapist and more realist set of policies toward the Palestinians and perhaps even some forward movement toward a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian war. MORE
Posted by Ted Belman at January 5, 2006 09:04 AM
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Pipes calls it as he sees it
Israeli Politics Will Revert to Its Past by Daniel Pipes, National Post
I agree with Pipes. What made disengagement possible was that Israelis were more worried about the negative aspects of the occupation rather then the security threats from disengaging. So they were thinking short term.
I expect this to change because the reality is that the security threat is growing.
Posted by Ted Belman at January 5, 2006 09:04 AM