Rice Admits U.S. Underestimated Hamas Strength

Rice Admits U.S. Underestimated Hamas Strength

By STEVEN R. WEISMAN, NYT

LONDON, Jan. 29 — Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice acknowledged
Sunday that the United States had failed to understand the depth of hostility among Palestinians toward their longtime leaders. The hostility led to an election victory by the militant group Hamas that has reduced to tatters crucial assumptions underlying American policies and hopes in the Middle East.

"I've asked why nobody saw it coming," Ms. Rice said, speaking of her
own staff. "It does say something about us not having a good enough pulse."

Immediately after the election, Bush administration officials said the results reflected a Palestinian desire for change and not necessarily an embrace of Hamas, which the United States, Israel and the European Union consider a terrorist organization sworn to Israel's destruction. But Ms. Rice's comments seemed to reflect a certain second-guessing over how the administration had failed to foresee, or factor into its thinking, the possibility of a Hamas victory.

Indeed, Hamas's victory has set off a debate whether the administration was so wedded to its belief in democracy that it could not see the dangers of holding elections in regions where Islamist groups were strong and democratic institutions weak.

"There is a lot of blame to go around," said Martin Indyk, a top Middle East negotiator in the Clinton administration, referring to Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president, and his Fatah party. "But on the American side, the conceptual failure that contributed to disaster was the president's belief that democracy and elections solve everything."

Ms. Rice pointed out that the election results surprised just about
everyone. "I don't know anyone who wasn't caught off guard by Hamas's
strong showing," she said on her way to London for meetings on the Middle East, Iran and other matters. "Some say that Hamas itself was caught off guard by its strong showing."

With increasing vehemence in the last few days, administration
officials have defended their decision to back Mr. Abbas with American aid and to rebuff Israel when it warned that the election should not be held as long as Hamas participated while refusing to lay down its arms. Those officials continue to lay most of the blame on Mr. Abbas for not offering a positive alternative to Hamas.

American officials say they were never comfortable with Mr. Abbas's
decision that the elections be held without the disarmament of Hamas, but they went along with it because there was no alternative. One official recounted how President Bush had personally but usuccessfully appealed to Mr. Abbas at the White House last October to disarm Hamas before the elections.

"The fact is, Abu Mazen wouldn't do it," said the official, referring
to Mr. Abbas. "He said he wouldn't do it, because he said he couldn't do it."

What Mr. Abbas instead offered at the White House was a plan to avoid a civil war among Palestinians by winning the election and only then
disarming Hamas and folding it into the mainstream. The aministration resolved, in turn, to support Mr. Abbas's political party with whatever diplomacy or resources it could.

Even while acknowledging the failure to foresee a Hamas victory, Ms.
Rice said the American decisions were basically correct. Contrary to some reports that even Mr. Abbas wanted the elections delayed, she said a postponement was neither possible nor desirable.

"Our constant discussions with Abu Mazen suggested that he wanted to go ahead with the elections and go ahead with them on time," Ms. Rice
said. "We had to support that. I just don't understand the argument that some how it would have gotten better the longer it went on."

At another point, she said: "You ask yourself, Are you going to support a policy of denying the Palestinians elections that had been promised to them at a certain point in time because people were fearful of the outcome?"

Others noted that the Palestinian elections had been postponed once
already, from last summer to January, to give Mr. Abbas and Fatah time to capitalize on the pullout of Israeli settlers from Gaza in August.

To help Mr. Abbas, the United States and its European partners
mobilized hundreds of millions of dollars in aid for the Palestinians to meet their payrolls, field their security forces, make welfare payments and build infrastructure.

The total outside assistance to the Palestinians runs to more than $1
billion a year. Now Ms. Rice will meet in London on Monday with top
officials of Europe, the United Nations and Russia to call on Hamas to abandon its vow to destroy Israel and to disarm and negotiate a
two-state solution in the Middle East, or risk having this aid cut off.

"You've got to hedge against the risk that elections are going to lead to precisely this result," said Mr. Indyk, the former Middle East negotiator. "The hedge is to build civil society and democratic institutions first. But this administration doesn't listen to that."

Many experts blame the Palestinians for most of their problems,
particularly the corruption and mismanagement in Mr. Abbas's Fatah organization. Hamas, by contrast, capitalized on its image of integrity and its record of delivering services.

Mr. Abbas is widely described as bitter that he failed to strengthen
his hand by getting American help in persuading Israel to curb settlement growth, release prisoners and lift the checkpoints and roadblocks choking off livelihoods in the West Bank. By all accounts, Mr. Abbas's frustration with the administration on this score was met with frustration on the American side that he was not doing enough to crack down on violence and root out corruption.

The administration was also under pressure from Europeans to try to
coax Hamas into the mainstream, and it did not want to rebuff their advice at a time when it was trying to work closely with the Europeans on isolating Iran.

Administration officials said that even in the analysis of Israelis,
Hamas's behavior in accepting a period of "calm" in the last year — ceasing its attacks on Israeli civilians — meant that it was willing to break with other groups like Hezbollah and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Israeli and American officials felt that such a trend was to be encouraged.

As for Mr. Abbas's position on disarming Hamas after the elections, an administration official said: "Our sense was that there was a certain logic to his presentation, and we did not see that we could force an alternative on him. But we were also skeptical."

The administration then immediately began working with European and
other allies to set up "normative standards" for any group participating in the political process. Those standards are to be the focus of the talks in London, with the financing cutoff an implicit threat to Hamas. But a cctoff could force Hamas to turn to other sources, like Iran, for help.

Ms. Rice told reporters that she was convinced of the wisdom of
instilling democracy in the Middle East. Elections have brought into office anti-American Islamic radicals in Egypt, Lebanon and Iran, but Ms. Rice said the alternative was trying to bottle up seething anger in the region that could lead to more terrorist attacks in the West.

"There is a huge transition going on in the Middle East, as a whole and in its parts," she said. "The outcomes that we're seeing in any number of places, I will be the first to say, have a sense of unpredictability about them. That's the nature of big historic change. It's simply the way it is."

Posted by Ted Belman at January 30, 2006 06:06 AM

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Comments

1. Michael A. Shoemaker said:

Hamas' Victory was NOT a Failure of Democracy!

In fact, the 26 January 2006 PA election was probably the freest, most democratic Arab election ever! Hamas did not control the polling booths, and did not twist any arms. What Rice and her underlings and overlings didn't see, was something that should have been patently obvious for years: The Palestinians hate peace with Israel, and support waging continual terror until every Jew is cast into the sea -- just as polls of the Palestinians have shown for years. Rice didn't read the polls, nor did she see those people dancing in the street and handing out candy when 3000 Americans died on 9/11. nor did she see how Israeli and American flags are commonly burned side-by side, to the jubilation of the masses. She preferred to believe Reuters and the BBC and all the other Saudi-controlled media, which reassured her that all is well.

George W. Bush and Condolezza Rice (along with the majority of Israelis, apparently) simply live in a world that is disconnected from reality. But if they are reading this now, let me assure them:

Condolezza and George, we are at war. People hate us. They are Arab Moslems. They are shooting at us, blowing up the Pentagon and turning parts of New York City into dust. They are Arab Moslems. They are the MAJORITY of Arab Moslems. They hate us, they hate you, and in fact, they hate just about everyone, and if they are given the right to freely vote, they will vote for Jihad to take over the world. When you suffer, they rejoice openly; and when you succeed, they cringe in horror.

Condolezza and George, terrorism does not come from outer space: It comes from Arab Moslems. They are the people who preach it, who fund it, and who send their children to be part of it. The planes that destroyed the World Trade Center were not flown by squirrels: They were flown by Arab Moslems; and when the news got out that they had killed innocent people, the Arab masses rejoiced. When there are really free elections, those same masses vote for terrorist leaders. Can you understand this? Or have I made this too complicated?

Perhaps that will do it.

Posted by: Michael A. Shoemaker on January 30, 2006 07:32 AM

2. Mary Hogan said:

This underestimation cop out doesn't wash anymore. Just on this Blog there has been sufficient notation on "sounds good to me" menatality of Sharon, Bush, Condosleeza, and others. We live in a world where the common man seems to have more insight than the so-called 'brainiac leaders' that are making critical decisions about the Holiest People on earth. I am a Republican, and Bush should have stayed out of people pleasing, and Carterisms, and 'gimme a break you self-interested Clintonian no-logicians.

Bush messed up with the Road map, it was ludicrous and most of us knew it. Road map to peace my foot. Let the Torah Jews live in their country, and let their prayers rescue the world, instead of making them homeless refugees.

Posted by: Mary Hogan on January 30, 2006 09:49 AM

3. Mary Hogan said:

I was listening to Rashi, making lunch and enjoying the sunshine, this all after my morning study in Talmud Sanhedrin, when I realize the weakness in my comment, how does a person run a country in a generation of corruption?

Still, Bush messed up with the Road Map plain and simple.

Posted by: Mary Hogan on January 30, 2006 12:21 PM

4. Bill Narvey said:

Mary,

I do think that Bush, like Clinton and Carter before did have a semblance of good intentions. One flaw in their thinking (and which also flawed Israel's thinking) has been that they all proceeded from a Western perspective as to what Palestinians would want, without understanding that the Palestinian mind is the Arab mind which does not work like a Western mind, both as to assessing their own needs and interests and determining what future is in their best interests.

There is a difference in tactics only between Hamas and the PLO and PA. The West has taken only what Palestinians have said over the past 40 years that was specifically intended for Western ears and ignored what Palestinians were saying to themselves about their wants and needs in their media and mosques.

The West is trying to contend with the reality of Palestinian hopes and dreams as made clear by the Hamas victory. The West cannot keep up the pretences of the past. Still they try to do so, as exemplified by Bush's wishful comment that the majority of Palestinians still want peace and voted for Hamas, not because they want what Hamas wants, but rather they did not want to be led by the corrupt and ineffective P.A.

Really?????

The other flaw in America's push for peace for Israel and Palestinians is that Americans have become so singularly focussed on the end goal, they are pushing Israel to a peace that mitigates against Israel's short and definitely long term survival in a sea of implacably hostile Jew hating neighbors.

America must somehow come to understand that the Palestinians are Arabs and like their Arab and Muslim brethren in the region are part of the many faces of radical Islam which does not allow for any place for Jews and Israel within their domain, which the land of Israel once was and which they seek to reclaim in the name of Islam as part of their mission that is holy to them.

Posted by: Bill Narvey on January 30, 2006 12:56 PM

5. Leonard said:

Its wasn't only Rice who miscalculated on the results of the Palestinian elections - there was also a failure on the part of Olmert & Israeli intelligence. But America did Israel a favour by forcing through the elections. Just think about it - had Hamas not won, America would still be talking about the Road Map, about Israel evacuating Communities in the West Bank, & the EU & G7 nations would continue pumping in the billions of dollars into the corrupt PA. My late Israeli mother had an expression "Gum zoo le tova" which translated means " whatever happens - it happens for the best".

Posted by: Leonard on January 30, 2006 01:24 PM

6. Mary Hogan said:

I know Nachum Ish, Gam zu la tova, but too use it too often is dangerous. I think God's hand was in the Hamas victory, but I ask, why didn't world recognize that pastural use of the land by the Torah Jews as opposed to nefesh behamos of the terrorists of Gush Katif?

Because, Bush has got to stand for something other than Political correctness and he needs a secretary of state that has integrity.

Posted by: Mary Hogan on January 30, 2006 01:43 PM

7. RA said:

This is not about Palestinians rejecting their leaders. This is about Palestinians electing terrorists to govern them. The Palestinians don't want peace, so they will get war, and loose their subsidies. I like it.

Posted by: RA on January 30, 2006 02:03 PM

8. Charles Martel said:

Had Hamas not won, America would still be talking about the Road Map, about Israel evacuating Communities in the West Bank, & the EU & G7 nations would continue pumping in the billions of dollars into the corrupt PA.

I would lay odds that within six months, this will all be back on the agenda. The EU and Bush are COMMITTED to the formation of a Palestinian state as part of their misguided effort to appease the Muslim world. The election of Hamas represents a mere temporary setback which will be finessed, reframed, and ultimately circumnavigated. Watch.

Posted by: Charles Martel on January 30, 2006 02:12 PM

9. Leonard said:

Its time for Bush to take stock and to think about where he's going. Whatever one might say about Bush he's certainly an improvement on Clinton & Carter from the Israeli point of view. He has taken the War to the terrorists in Iraq & Afghanistan. The focus now has to be on the new threats to the region - the alliance between Syria & an Iran ruled by an unstable leader that is about to acquire nuclear weapons and who talks about wiping out Israel. With Hamas in control - I can't see him piling on any more pressure on Israel to concede territory etc particularly before the Israeli elections due in March.

Posted by: Leonard on January 30, 2006 02:17 PM

10. Mary Hogan said:

Why, Charles, why...what does Bush gain from this relationship? I think Bush is trying too hard to become noteworthy, and has messed up forgetting that there is a spiritual element at hand. He plays the good guy, instead of being the wise one, the one with clarity. His clarity is definitely transient if present at all.

Posted by: Mary Hogan on January 30, 2006 03:00 PM

11. Mary Hogan said:

Leonard, is that alliance between Syria and Iran new? What is Putin dabbling with? It is like a chess game.

Posted by: Mary Hogan on January 30, 2006 03:02 PM

12. Leonard said:

Mary - you are right. The Russians are Grandmasters of Chess and have always treated Iran & the Middle East as one giant chess board in their game of outwitting the West. Putin is ex-KGB Old School Russian and has pulled his country away from the brink of Democracy. For Israel, such a tiny country the stakes are extremely high. One wrong move and not only have you lost the game - you are wiped off the map.

Posted by: Leonard on January 30, 2006 04:01 PM

13. Charles Martel said:

Well, it didn't take six months for the Europeans to cave as I predicted; it required less than six days:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4663742.stm

Posted by: Charles Martel on January 30, 2006 04:50 PM

14. scott said:

People, especially Israelis, are always thinking 'the powers that be' are uninformed or stupid or foolish. How silly. The powers that be are corrupt and soulless. The West would sell England for oil ... let alone troublesome Israel. I can't believe the Saudis and Iran have waited THIS long to issue an ultimatum. I guess they needed our inefectual and suicidal behaviour in Iraq to clue them in to just how much power they actually have and just how feckless the West really is.

Bend over and kiss your butts goodby Israelis ... or take over your land and stand ready to destroy your enemies decisively! Your choice. You are being cut loose one way or the other in the not too distant future. We can't live without the oil and we don't have the will or the military to take over the oil fields.

Posted by: scott on January 30, 2006 05:37 PM

15. Barrie said:

In October 2001 my US sister-in-law told me she thought Arafat was sincere about peace and just found it hard to control his people. I said I disagreed because it was he who unleashed two Intifadas, and so deliberately educated the next generation in Jihad resistance. 'Throwing stones at the Devil' is dangerous, as we know.
Now Abbas knows that too, since Hamas is now made up of all those immoralised, Hitleryouth-ified children.
Why didn't Condi Rice know that too, with all her education?

Posted by: Barrie on January 31, 2006 12:24 AM

16. Charles Martel said:

Mary

Quick story: Jos Stone (the British blues sensation) related that on a recent visit to the WH where she was invited along with other musicians to lunch with the President, Bush was discussing global politics when he suddenly placed his hand on her shoulder and said, "when I'm finished, there will be peace in the world". Needless to say, she was a bit freaked out by this stark revelation.

If you have ever seen Bush interviewed on the ME, you will notice a steely, determined glint in his eyes when he reminds the interviewer that he is the only American President to formally call for a Palestinian state. In addition to the geopolitical stakes associated with protecting Americans from Islamic terrorism and keeping the oil flowing, there is a definite Messianic element to Bush's grand scheme. I think he really believes he has been "called" to forge peace between Israel and her Arab neighbours.

Posted by: Charles Martel on January 31, 2006 06:12 AM

17. Mary Hogan said:

Charles,

I think we all can see that what Bush thinks and Torah are in direct oppositon. A person who depends on half-baked teachers, ie: these unlearned preachers, is like a blind driver on an obstacle course. His so called 'grand scheme' along with Sharon the secular, is based on dim wittedness. They all are worried more about their legacy than they are about getting it right. Not saying that Kerry wasn't a minion of the Accuser himself. That man was just blatantly playing the crowd. I think Bush has a semblance of right and wrong, he just needs more Torah Jew input than St. How to make a million dollars by conning the people religionic input.

Can you imagine if Rav Dessler or Rashi or the Vilna Ga'on had been at the helm with full confidence? But then world is not about easy, it is about nisoyon. Bush is not passing the test in my eyes.

Posted by: Mary Hogan on January 31, 2006 09:19 AM

18. radiorote said:

She expected the grateful PLO to throw flower petals at her feet.

Posted by: radiorote on February 2, 2006 01:44 AM

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