Gilad Shalit Deal: Was Israel Crazy like a Fox?
Sun Tzu’s Art of War shows how Shalit deal could place thousands of Hamas at risk
by Bill Levinson
Now that Gilad Shalit is safely at home and Hamas cannot go back on what could have been a deadly mistake, we can discuss a theory to the likelihood that Israel is neither as stupid nor as pusillanimous as it looks. Sun Tzu’s Art of War, which Mao Tse Tung adopted as the guide for his very successful revolution, shows how Hamas might have played squarely into the hands of the Mossad and/or Shin Bet. Israel might have just planted 50, 100, or even more double agents among the Palestinians who will cooperate (for example) in setting up Hamas terrorists to be killed, or locating Palestinian rocket batteries for destruction, whenever Israel considers this necessary.
Sun Tzu wrote,
- The enemy’s spies who have come to spy on us must be sought out, tempted with bribes, led away and comfortably housed. Thus they will become converted spies and available for our service.
The context of the otherwise inexplicable exchange for Gilad Shalit provided an opportunity for Israel to put this into practice, as Israel could not have otherwise released any prisoners whose loyalty it had turned without drawing suspicion to them. If Israel had just let them go, Hamas’ first question would be, “Why did they let you go?” and they would have been watched very carefully. Al Stewart’s Roads to Moscow, which might have been based on the life of Alexander Solzhenitsyn, elaborates further.
- And now they ask me of the time
That I was caught behind their lines and taken prisoner
“They only held me for a day, a lucky break”, I say;
They turn and listen closer
I’ll never know, I’ll never know
Why I was taken from the line and all the others
To board a special train and journey deep into the heart of holy Russia
And it’s cold and damp in the transit camp, and the air is still and sullen
And the pale sun of October whispers the snow will soon be coming
And I wonder when I’ll be home again and the morning answers
“Never”
Joseph Stalin’s paranoid minions wondered how the Russian soldier (possibly based on Solzhenitsyn) escaped from the Germans, speculated that the Germans might have turned him and then released him, and sent him to Siberia without further delay. This is why Israel could not simply release any prisoners it had turned; they would have been similarly noticed.
The Shalit deal, however, provided Israel with the perfect opportunity to release every converted prisoner among the thousand that Hamas demanded. Now Hamas has no cause to watch any specific individual, and it probably lacks the resources to watch all thousand. Even if it did, surveillance might alienate the majority of the released terrorists who really support Hamas’ cause. The Mariel boatlift of Cuban refugees offers a parallel explanation:
- Cubans were immediately granted refugee status and all the rights that went with it. Additionally, public opinion towards Cuban refugees was initially favorable.
This situation changed because of the perception that the refugees included “undesirables”, such as criminals and mental patients. It is alleged that Castro arranged for the inclusion of criminals and the mentally ill among the political and economic refugees in order to damage the image of Cuban exiles.
Palestinian opinion toward the freed prisoners is similarly favorable, and they are being welcomed home with open arms and no questions asked. “No questions asked” is very good when some of them might now be ticking time bombs for Hamas, waiting only for a clandestine order to carry out an intelligence or espionage mission.
How could Israel have turned some of the imprisoned terrorists? Freedom is one incentive, noting that a terrorist who refused to change sides could have been left in prison while somebody else–either somebody who would cooperate or a relatively low risk offender who didn’t matter–was freed in his place. Money could have been added, including money up front and money as an incentive to do what Israeli intelligence agencies wanted done. E.g. “We may someday want you to attach a GPS transponder to the car of a senior Hamas official so we can arrange a rendezvous with a drone-fired missile, and here is how we will contact you to give you the transponder and a suitcase full of small unmarked bills when the job is done.” We are not in the intelligence business, though, and it is quite likely that the kind of people who run the Mossad, or the CIA and FSB for that matter, know how to do it properly. Somebody like Vladimir Putin would surely know how to do it.
The fate of Adolf Eichmann should remind Hamas that Israel has a very long reach indeed. Eichmann was captured and hanged because his own son talked to somebody to whom he should not have talked, but had no reason to believe was not to be trusted.
We must point out that we are privy to no country’s secrets, and that this article is pure albeit educated speculation. There is no other conceivable reason why Israel would have released 1000 prisoners, including convicted terrorists who were serving life sentences, in exchange for one person whose release could probably have been extorted through straightforward military superiority. If various Hamas leaders begin to die inexplicably because the IDF somehow knew where to find them, or if concealed military assets like rockets get blown up because somebody told the IDF where to look, this explanation is probably the best.
Note also that our speculation does the enemy absolutely no good even if he reads it and our theory is accurate. As we said, 1000 freed prisoners is a pretty big haystack in which to look for a few needles (or scorpions).
This is a forced article , Levinson had the answer he was looking for the question.
How did that work out for the Shin Bet (and for Israel) in all the prior lopsided swaps?
Stupid Jews.
This is what I said in a comment regarding the so-called lopsidedness and “consequences” of the deal in the article about the so-called “Short term gratification versus long-term pain. I totally agree with Bill’s assessment and I think the doubters should have more Emunah in the Shin Bet and the Mossad’s ability to not only CONTAIN but to take ADVANTAGE of the deal. I really do believe the released prisoners are going to have it worse off out of prison than they had in. And I bet if the understandably enraged parents of the terrorist’s victims find out some day that they are no longer around they will have a chance at REAL closure or justice.
Maybe they had significantly more time now to pull this off. Lastly, why do you keep referring to them as the Stupid Jews and not the Stupid Israelis if you feel like commenting at all. Again, maybe stupid like a fox.
Anyone who thinks a fox is stupid; is! A fox is a minor predator and quite the coward. Do you identify with foxes?
Because: Poll: Most Israelis see themselves as Jewish first, Israeli second!!!
Israel Democracy Institute releases special survey probing Israelis’ perception of identify, says 94% of Jewish population in Israel believe they are part of worldwide Jewish community.
Based on WHAT?
Based on WHAT?
Have you ever been in an Israeli prison? Any prison?
What do you want to bet?
Where do you hibernate when you are not spouting inanities?
Seems so but that’s Levinson, He is a fan of Marvel comics Characters and plots.
Don’t need much to get info from Arabs they hate each other and turn ea other into the Israel intel agents, Some for money others for revenge and some are blackmailed. Israel has thousands of what we call “Shtinkers” and it’s illogical we would turn loose hundreds of killers for the added value a another or a few more Shtinkers. Palis security and political Palis VIP’s are already on our payroll.
Liked your comment, you zeroed into who levinson is in 15 words.
Quote why do you keep referring to them as the Stupid Jews and not the Stupid Israelis if you feel like commenting at all. Again, maybe stupid like a fox.
Reply: Anyone who thinks a fox is stupid; is! A fox is a minor predator and quite the coward. Do you identify with foxes?
Because:Poll: Most Israelis see themselves as Jewish first, Israeli second!!!
Israel Democracy Institute releases special survey probing Israelis’ perception of identify, says 94% of Jewish population in Israel believe they are part of worldwide Jewish community.
An ongoing study preformed by the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI), published for the first time on Ynet, reveals that 47% of the public sees itself as Jewish first and Israeli second, as opposed to 39% who consider themselves first and foremost Israeli.”
I thought I was talking to Shy Guy. The comment about stupid as a fox was sarcastic Reread the quote instead with “clever as a fox” with only that unambiguous meaning and you will get my intent. Everybody knows the expression so even if an anthropologist would say that the fox is really a coward the expression, like the title of the article, is clear and unambiguous. I used the word “stupid” in the quote to accentuate the irony of calling the fox just that when, in reality, vis-a-vis the issue of the deal, it may be very clever indeed. Further, I identify with Jews since I am Jewish and also as Israeli since I am Israeli. If you, and I guess I am referring to Shy Guy now, want to blast the leaders of the “Israeli” people I think a comment like “stupid Jews” cuts to the religion and not just the people of Israel. And when a war breaks out or a soldier is in captivity like Gilad Shalit, everybody is an Israeli no matter HOW Jewish they may or may not be or how they primarily identify. We know that’s true and that’s the subtle difference of how you should aim your comments. I think there is a difference.
3.
Did you read the article? Like the author said “Israel might have just planted 50, 100, or even more double agents among the Palestinians who will cooperate (for example) in setting up Hamas terrorists to be killed, or locating Palestinian rocket batteries for destruction, whenever Israel considers this necessary” Is that really stupidity in your judgement? If you’re Jewish you need to have more emunah. If you were to say to the parents of the terrorist victims that possibly within 6 months to a year the perpetrator may be dead and that by making the deal many other terrorists will also by killed and, consequently Hamas will be weakened and Israel will actually be safer, do you think they might go along with it. I believe they might. I think the article speaks for itself. I am sure you must be familiar with the capabilities of the Mossad and the Shin Bet. In the meanwhile, Gilad Shalit has been saved.
One more point I couldn’t make before getting cut off is that so long as the prisoners were in jail they couldn’t be touched. Now they are back on the battlefield things can happen. Maybe not right away but they can happen. Again, certainly you must know the capabilities of the Mossad and Shin Bet. I’m willing to trust that enough to go through with the deal and bring Shalit home. And I’m glad they did.
As nice as it would to think what Bill wrote above is true, what he writes could be wishful thinking and not based in fact. Look at the history. If we look at the treatment of the Jews who were kicked out of Gaza and their subsequent treatment (i.e. abuse) by the government of Israel, has anything changed since then? The same leftist globalists in power just as in all other countries of the world who support Israel’s enemies and persecute conservative Jews. This is shocking and a shame. Unfortunately nice people want to think nice things about their government leaders, when in fact they should embrace Realism and recognize evil when they see it. It is wonderful that Gilad was released. It is an abomination that a 1,000 terrorists were released to prey upon Jews. Sharon was held accountable by G-d for Gaza. What will happen to Netanyahu?
One thing it means is Galid is worth 1,000 as much as a murdering terrorist.
As I said, I am not privy to any information one way or the other. What is important is that it COULD be true and that Hamas could now be royally screwed.
I hear you, Bill, and agree and hope so. I sincerely believe in the principle that everyone will reap what they sow. The Muslims have done a lot of sowing and a fury of whirlwinds of G-d’s judgment will be ultimately be the result. That is a Bible Promise. Indeed a whirlwind (Hurricane Katrina) was the result of Bush pushing Israel to give Gaza to the “Palies.” It is unfortunate that Israel chooses to practice a halfway war against real combatants sworn to kill them. As such, Israel is being nicer than G-d. It should not be.
Mate, I hope you are right. Poetic really, if like the midianites, they destroy themselves.
There could be giants.
The historical record is this:
1. SOME released terrorists went on to commit murders
2. The net effect on Israel was probably less than the effect of drug overdoses in that country — not much, in the big scheme of thingsl
All that said, these lopsided exchanges look stupid to outsiders. As for the Israelis themselves, over 80% supported the current exchange, and over 80% thought it would lead to more trouble. That doesn’t look like stupidity; it looks like insanity; but on the other hand,
3. They’re Jewish, so what do you expect? And God takes care of drunks and Jews.
I got blogged again. Go figure.
Just because one can speculate doesn’t mean one should. Some speculations can be damaging.
OK, A fox might not be stupid but my comment stands as to my intent. Kapish?
This is an open forum where anyone can comment to any of the others. You want private send him an email.
Most Israelis unlike yourself see being Israeli and Jewish synonymously. I think that’s obvious from Shy’s comment and the poll I posted. You seem to have a minority opinion held by mostly disaffected Jews here in Israel which includes our vile extreme left.
There is a difference in expressing empathy and agreeing to stupid, unjust and dangerous political acts by our politicians.
Since Israel is still or claims to be a democracy we feel it our civic, Jewish and Israeli duty to criticize our leaders. From your comment claiming to be Israeli it seems, if you really are Israeli, you no longer live here, Just a feeling I have; of course I can’t prove it.
You trust in the wisdom of our political leaders and security services both to do what’s right and to protect the civilian Jews in Israel. The 182 Jews murdered by released Terrorists in swaps and other stupid acts of our esteemed leaders SINCE 2000, says you don’t know what you are talking about. How many of our civilians were wounded by same? How many security personnel were killed or wounded in the apprehension of said released terrorists? Since a future victims of those released terrorists might be me or mine I think I have a right if not duty to disagree and criticize the deal. The two soldiers who were with Shalit were not so lucky and you show no remorse for the dead only a single nerd soldier who allowed himself to be captured. The leftist media are largely responsible for the public circus and emotional discharge of Israelis and the millions raised and donated by the extreme left here and abroad fueled the media campaign. When Pollard is released I will rejoice. When Jews sitting in prison for terrorist acts against Arabs are released I will rejoice.
Since you support the debasement of our Laws and Justice and it’s unequal application here in Israel, I’m sure you will agree in light of all those murderers being set free that Yigal Amir also be set free? It’s only fair and Just that he be set free NOW!
You might be right with a more plausible explanation (at least I pray/hope so), it might actually be 100% double agents!! They may all have chips planted on them, like those to identify lost dogs/cats!!!
In any event, I strongly pray/hope your right!!
Frankly, if I were Israel’s leader, I would have went after Gilad Shalit with vengeance from the moment he ws kidnapped/captured, or anyone else in his/her situation. I would have made it a top priority, and a non-negotiable with the so-called palestinians thugs and the US/Europe/UN that he must return home unharmed or there would be $$$^*&*^!! to pay. No I’m not Jewish but I do know plenty of people in the land, some of which were or will be solders. I would not play patty-cake with the worlds tyrants, like Israel is being forced to do.
I would stand for my nations children to be pawns in the worlds chess game!! And I would double dare for obama, bush, clinton, etc. to put their children at risk under evil arab imprisonment and to negotiate their release!!
And I pray/hope all these evil thugs are made double agents being tracked with chips in them. I pray the thought of the possibility drives these evil arab thugs (they are not palestinians) totally insane with the thought!!
The prisoner exchange, in my opinion, had nothing to do with condoning the perversion of Justice and the Law. It wasn’t condoning murder, as you know, and, therefore, wasn’t a referendum on letting murderers free (in all “fairness” as you suggest). It was to free Gilad Shalit and Bill Levinson’s article only emphasized a positive perspective on the apparently inevitable “negative” consequences of the deal that are argued. To call Gilad a “nerd” suggesting he deserved not to be redeemed because of “it” (whatever “it” is) is ridiculous. Since when is a “nerds” life not worth saving.
One other comment, to say that he deserved not to be redeemed because he was too much of a nerd and got caught is to blame the victim. This is typical liberal left wing thinking of blaming the victim. It’s like saying if someone is riding on the bus late at night and they got assaulted or robbed that they had it coming to them because they should know better than to ride the bus late at night and, therefore, don’t deserve (as in this case with Gilad Shalit) REDEMPTION.
We will probably never know if Bill’s article is correct.
It might not matter.
Giving up over a thousand Palestinian terrorists for one Gilad Shalit is just going to invite more kidnapping of Israeli solders. That will surely bring the next war.
If you have been paying attention (Have you?), then you will know that the next war will mean that only one side will be left standing when it is over. Either Israel’s neighbors will obliterate Israel or the other way around. This time it really is different because of chemical weapons that will used by Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas.
I’m guessing that you can’t gas a Jew without a nuclear response.
This one can only harm the enemy, or I wouldn’t have posted it. If it’s accurate, it hasn’t given him information he can use because (as stated above) he can’t keep tabs on all 1000.
That’s some interesting speculation, Bill. It is very tempting to project magical decision making on Israel’s conduct of its war on terrorism. But there really is too much in Israel’s political scene to prevent any comfort from such specualtion. In a way, assigning cleverness to Israel’s decision to free all these terrorists in exchange for one Israeli soldier is a little anti-Semitic. Jews are allowed to be clever, but never really intelligent. Sly, but never wise. Calculating, but never forward thinking.
On the other hand. Israeli intelligence has had a lot of time to pick over every last one of these prisoners and really map them out. Under confinement, it can be really easy to isolate predictable behavior and the depths of motivation, especially for people with souls so rotten as to be the terrorists these people are. It isn’t even really necessary to conspire with many of them or even wind them up a certain way. It is just necessary to send them on their way, knowing who they are, and wait for gravity to work its magic.
There are still a lot of terrorists in Israel’s jails. The terrorists got a big number back, but a big number hides a lot weaknesses in the deal. Yes, there were terrorist superstars in the lot, but really, who are they now? What is the potential for the kind of operations they conducted? Who were their political backers and supporters? Where are they now?
Prison serves two purposes in a democratic society. It serves to punish and it serves to contain the dangerous. Odd, but nobody complaining about this exchange is arguing that the released terrorists need to be punished more. It is the threat they pose on being released that gets people excited. The terrorist got a big number back, but there are still more sitting in Israel’s jails. Decisions were made about who got to be released and who didn’t. Knowing how this decision was made could go a long way to figuring out what we can expect in the future from those released.
Or we could just wait. In either case, whatever happens, nobody is likely to forget this any time soon. Meanwhile, outrage is the best response and certainly those making these decisions didn’t expect anything less. If you aren’t outraged yet, just look at the open glee on the faces of people like Sects. Clinton and Ban Ki-moon.
You don’t believe the current and past release of terrorists for any reason is not a perversion of our Justice system? Can you think of any other civilized country who would do the same? Shalit is no hero, he was a soldier who got lucky and was not killed as were is comrades in arms.
His unit was supposed to be on alert as Israli mil. Intel had given prior warnings, Despite those warnings they were surprised and Shalit was taken without a fight. True he had just completed basic training and was in this camp I think only two days before the attack but he was a soldier and was expected to perform as one. He didn’t. He is no Hero. He is a political pawn first by Hamas, secondly by all Israel post Zionists who helped to elevate him to pop idol status and foreign NGO’s supported by foreign governments who have always sought to weaken Israel and in this case trying to force Israel into accepting and negotiating with Hamas. The elevation of Shalit to pop idol prominence are the same groups who forced Israel withdrawals from Lebanon and Gaza, have maligned the settlements and settlers in Y & S. The millions and the Free Shalitcampaing did not all come from the pockets of well wishing Joe Israelis but from foreign governments using so called NGO’s.
Yes Shalit was complicit in his own kidnapping by not acting as a good soldier should. If he hadn’t been kidnapped he should have been court- martialed. I fully agree with Ted Belman when he wrote this today. That’s how a normal country should behave but we are not normal and based on your illogical comments neither are you.
I can understand most Israelis empathy with Shalit and his family but i would expect that empathy to be balanced with equal empathy to the victims of these released and soon to be released human garbage. I would expect a normal citizenry to wish to strenghten the rule of law and justice above the interests of a single individual and understandably his family supporters. If Israel had followed Belman’s advice Shalit would be either home long ago or dead but our national honor, our justice system, our deterrence would remain intact. Most of all the lives of other jews already made forfeit by this scurrilous act would be alive. In Jewish law the collective always takes precedence over an individual when Jews lives are at stake. You never trade blood for blood and that’s what has been done whether you agree or not.
What units did you serve in the IDF, Mr. Chase?
That’s obvious.
Only in your comics oriented imagination , not in this the real world.
You are disrespectful of an enemy who has shown more acumen in attaining their goals the we. So far they seem to be winning and proving that terror pays and is the only thing that will force Israel into conceding it’s own destruction.
letting terrorists out of prison is stupid, I am all in favor of Israel getting back there soldier, but not the way Israel did it, all I can say most of the terrorists that have been released and will resort back to terrorism, mark my words this release of terrorists will come back and bite Israel in the ass
execute the terrorists
This deal reminds me of the joke about a guy who jumps from a high building , he passes the 24th floor someone asks how is it going his answer so far so good.
yamit82 says:
October 19, 2011 at 6:53 pm (Edit)
If I were privy to secret information (very unlikely as I don’t live in Israel), do you think I would even talk about it openly?
Quote “When Pollard is released I will rejoice”: So will I. That is next.
I can’t help but wonder whether you are blaming Gilad Shalit for the whole mess and, therefore, he didn’t deem to be redeemed. Who said he needs to be a Hero or that if he is a nerd (whatever that means?) he doesn’t deserve to be saved. To those that say would you put five people on the border and shoot them to get him back I would say no but, in reality, that wasn’t done. If I said to you would you be willing to put a bullet in Gilad Shalit’s head to prevent any deal and the terrorists from being released and MAYBE go back to their ways would you say yes. Because that is essentially what you would be saying if you say NO deal ever.
durinf WW2 rabbi menachem Zemba called on those left in the Warsaw Ghetto to revolt –he stated in posters the the jews foolishly believed in their own wisdom and the germans stupidity–etc– stop trying to make the Israelis smart they are not
-what you see is the continued demoralization of the army and the population which is one and the same
wake up and call a spade a spade and a fool a darn fool