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  • November 15, 2011

    The End of the ‘Peace Process’ Era

    The PA announced today that it is abandoning swaps and negotiations. That means it has formally abandon Oslo and the Roadmap both of which require negotiations. We are back to Res 242.

      Khalid also admitted the PA has no interest in reaching a bilateral agreement with Israel – that is, peace – and plans to continue on its current unilateral track.

    If this doesn’t mean the end of Oslo, nothing will.

    By rejecting negotiations, the PA is also rejecting R242, which implied negotiations to arrive at “secure and recognized” borders and was a sine qua nom of the Oslo Accords. Accepting R242 was a condition precedent to entering Oslo.

    When is Netanyahu finally going to pull the plug. Its time to also undo the PA which was created by Oslo, by disavowing all agreements with them.

    By Ted Belman

    The Palestinian/Israeli conflict has entered a new era. Since the UNSC passed Res 242, it had been focused on the “peace process,” which included the Madrid Conference, the Oslo Accords, The Roadmap, Annapolis and finally Obama’s heavy handed attempts to impose a solution.

    One of the reasons that Obama couldn’t get the PA to negotiate after three years of trying is that it was laying the ground work to go another path, a path that would circumvent the peace process and rely on the intervention of the UN.  The PA realized that it had gotten all it could through negotiations, which is virtually nothing, and that to continue on that path meant that at the end of the line it would have to sign an end-of-conflict-agreement with Israel. This, it was unwilling to do.


    So instead, the PA has decided to get what it wanted from the international community and the UN.  It has spent the last three years lobbying the member states of the UN to support its bid for recognition as a state whose borders aligned with the ’49 Armistice Lines.  Its goal was to reach this stage without having to concede anything to Israel, much less sign an end-of-conflict-agreement.  From this stage it would go on to fight for the lines in the Partition Plan recommended by the UNGA in Res 181.

    Even though Obama tried his damndest to get Israel to agree to negotiate based on the ’67 lines and swaps, Netanyahu held firm.  Obama ended up asserting that he would veto the PA bid in the Security Council and called for a negotiated settlement.  Because he is now in the countdown to elections, he turned the “peace process over to the EU who made a proposal in September for the parties to have preliminary talks for a month and then to present comprehensive proposals for borders and security and then to finish a peace agreement before the end of 2012.

    The EU failed to get the talks to begin but did get Netanyahu to agree to present comprehensive proposals in three months.  Apparently the PA had presented such a proposal at Annapolis.

    JPOST reported when Blair on October 27/11:

      Blair explained in his interview that the Quartet was trying to get detailed proposals from Israel and the Palestinians on borders and security, to gauge how wide the gaps were, and whether there was a basis for negotiation.

    From those remarks it appeared that the Quartet had all but given up.

    On Oct 31/11,  the PA had a pyrrhic victory in getting UNESCO to admit Palestine as a member state. The fallout from that “victory” was that the US and Canada, inter alia, are now withholding funds from UNESCO. Furthermore Israel has signaled her displeasure in word and in deed. Netanyahu announced the construction, without delay, of another 2300 units east of the ’67 lines and that Israel would withhold the payment of taxes collected by her on behalf of the PA.

    The significance of this announcement was that Netanyahu was boldly saying, not only to the PA, but to the world, that Israel is keeping Maaleh Adumin, Gilo and Efrat, three major suburbs of Jerusalem lying east of the ’67 greenline, and is undeterred by demands that Israel not prejudice the outcome of negotiations or do provocative steps.

    Condoleeza Rice was interviewed by Foreign Policy

    FP: This is the biggest foreign-policy issue of this week: The U.N. crisis caused by the Palestinian membership in UNESCO. And it’s a crisis that’s only getting larger and larger. There could be up to 16 U.N. organizations, including the IAEA and the World Health Organization, where the U.S. will have to withdraw based on the law if the Palestinians are admitted. What are we to think of this, and what should be done to get us out of this crisis?

    CR: Well, you know, actually, if the U.N. wants to go down this road, let them see how well they do without U.S. support. I don’t have any sympathy for UNESCO or anybody else that decides they are going to jump over what has long been the way we’re going to get to a Palestinian state, which is negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians.

    The PA for its part is now mooting the idea of disbanding the PA. It is suggested that such a move would punish Israel but Israelis think it would be for the best. For one thing it would be the end of the Oslo Accords and the Roadmap including the Saudi Plan. It may or not be the end of the financial assistance from the US, EU and Saudi Arabia to a lesser extent. Israel would outlaw the PLO, Fatah, Hamas and all other terrorist groups calling for the destruction of Israel. And so on.

    Condoleeza Rice also told AP that the gap has only widened “and they’re running out of time.” She did not sound optimistic for a peace settlement, or even for new talks, anytime soon.

    “When they’re not talking, they’re sliding backward,” Rice said.

    So what has Israel been doing in the meantime?

    At a recent lecture in the last week of October, Boogie Yaalon, Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Strategic Affairs, said,

      “Time is not working against us, as many say. It is working in our favour because we make use of time.  We build, we develop. we grow, we invent, we have babies. Time works for those who make use of it.”

    Vice FM Danny Yaalon, at another lecture said the same thing.  I later asked his key assistant if Israel is just building or does it have a Plan that it is following. He affirmed the later.

    Essentially, Israel is building up Hamas in Gaza and is sending in more goods such as building materials and will probably end the blockade.  At the same time Israel is undermining Abbas and the PA and is making life better for the Palestinians.  It is encouraging commercial and industrial development in Ramallah, vastly improving Arab schools in Jerusalem and lifting checkpoints. She continues to provide healthcare in Israel to both Gazans and Palestinians. They have never had it so good.

    So while Abbas is working on the UN, Israel is working on the ground to create a new reality.

    ADDENDUM:

    Today, Nov 15, the PA executive made it official.
    The PA announced that it is abandoning swaps and negotiations. That means it has formally abandonned Oslo and the Roadmap both of which require negotiations.

      Khalid also admitted the PA has no interest in reaching a bilateral agreement with Israel – that is, peace – and plans to continue on its current unilateral track.

    By rejecting negotiations, the PA is also rejecting R242, which implied negotiations to arrive at “secure and recognized” borders and was a sine qua nom of the Oslo Accords. Because, accepting R242, was a condition precedent to entering Oslo.

    If this doesn’t mean the end of Oslo and R242, nothing will.

    When is Netanyahu finally going to pull the plug. Its time to also undo the PA by disavowing all agreements with them.

  • Posted by Ted Belman @ 1:43 pm | 12 Comments »

    12 Comments to The End of the ‘Peace Process’ Era

    1. Per says:

      We are back to Res 242.

      But Res 242 also required negotiations and swaps. Res 242 is the rock bottom foundation of the peace process. We are not back to Res 242. Rather we are back to Karthoum and Israel is liberated from the straitjacket of the “land for terror” epoch. Congratulations!

    2. Dov Bear says:

      So, nu, the end of an Era of incredible lies and deceit: Should we pop a cork on another bottle of champagne? Hearing this is great cause for having a celebration. L’Chaim. And another L’Chaim for the financial collapse of Edom. What started in Greece has spread to Rome. G-d is taking down two empires that persecuted Jews at the same time, and one of them destroyed our Temple. L’Chaim!! And Sarkozy who let us all know how much he hates Bibi by speaking his mind into an open mike has suddenly made a man out of Netanyahu who has summarily canceled planned destructions of Givat Assaf, Migron, and the Ulpana neighborhood in Beit El. Another L’Chaim!! And this same Sarkozy has a brilliant idea to deny creditors holding Greek bonds of 50% of their principal and has summarily brought about flight from investing in another collapsing European country for fear of losing their principal in another failed investment. That would be Rome, Italy. Another L’Chaim!!!

      Is it Purim yet? Boy am I feeling woozy.

    3. Vinnie says:

      Per:

      No, UNSCR 242 did not require land swaps at all. It required a negotiated settlement that involved the return of uspecified “territories” captured in the ’67 war, and defensible borders for Israel.

      The ‘land swap’ bit did not appear until the Camp David talks of 2000, though it might have surfaced earlier during Bush #41.

      UNSCR 242 did not recognize the PLO or it’s successor, the PA (a product of Oslo), as the legitimate representatives of Palestinian national aspirations. At that time – 1967 – the PLO was only three years old, and was still roundly considered in the West what it should be considered today: a terrorist organization. They didn’t even have their “observer’s seat” in the UN at that time.

      Even if the PLO/PA disbands, we can still be back to UNSCR 242. The one has nothing to do with the other, really. But I’d just as soon scrap even UNSCR 242, and even the UN altogether. It is just a corrupt petrodollar-driven cesspool anymore.

    4. Dov Bear says:

      So, nu, the end of an Era of incredible lies and deceit: Should we pop a cork on another bottle of champagne? Hearing this is great cause for having a celebration. L’Chaim. And another L’Chaim for the financial collapse of Edom. What started in Greece has spread to Rome. G-d is taking down two empires that persecuted Jews at the same time, and one of them destroyed our Temple. L’Chaim!! And Sarkozy who let us all know how much he hates Bibi by speaking his mind into an open mike has suddenly made a man out of Netanyahu who has summarily canceled planned destructions of Givat Assaf, Migron, and the Ulpana neighborhood in Beit El. Another L’Chaim!! And this same Sarkozy has a brilliant idea to deny creditors holding Greek bonds of 50% of their principal and has summarily brought about flight from investing in another collapsing European country for fear of losing their principal in another failed investment. That would be Rome, Italy. Another L’Chaim!!!

      Is it Purim yet? Boy am I feeling woozy.

    5. Ted Belman says:

      Perr, you’re right and Vinnie, you’re right.

      Swaps did come later but this rejection is also a rejection of R242 which was the basis of Oslo. T%he Arabs had always rejected it, Khartoum Conference, and Rabin demanded that Arafat recognize R242 before Oslo began.

      R242 required negotiations to arrive at “secure and recognized borders” and so by rejecting negotiations, the PA is also rejecting R242.

    6. Isaac says:

      If Oslo is dead, then Israel has every right to see the PA as a terrorist org and take over Judea and Samaria. Res 242 has no siginifance now as it does require negotiation and as the PA has stated that it is not negotiating, Obama was also set a trap by the PA. Already Bibi had two earlier check-mates against him.

      All Obama is going to do now is to try and con the US voters again and he still has sufficient “white” people who will vote for him but many have decided not to vote for him.

      My US contcats say that he will NOT get in. Unemployment and economy are two of the factors that will go against him.

      Any comments on this, would appreciate it.

    7. Emanuel Gentilcore says:

      Seems to me Obamba will not be reelected and Israel will not have any successfull agreements so we are looking at war soon unless Hashem has other plans.

    8. abie says:

      “mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness, the other to total extinction. Let us pray that we have the wisdom to choose correctly.”

      Rabbi Kook.

    9. Ted

      We return all the time to the fundamental problem of Jewish and Israeli “elitist” psyche, itself something which is connected to the historical battering which Jews have endured due to anti-Semitism.

      Netanyahu is working underneath that history, and that psyche.

      Netanyahu thinks that he must work in stages. I think this is false. He thinks that first of all he must clear the decks by getting rid of the Iran nuclear Bomb threat. Thus he reasons he must have and need the alliance with the US, and even with Qatar, the latter involved highly in the Muslim Brotherhood Arab Spring, and in the murder of ally against the Muslim Brotherhood Muammar Gadhafi. (In other words what is posed is necessary alliance with the worst reactionaries on earth)

      Then with that great weight off his back he will be free to think and to act on other matters.

      I believe that is what is driving him. But in this he comes very close to Livni and to Peres.

      What Netanyahu leaves out is that the Iranian Nuclear Bomb is also a grave threat to every country in Europe, and to America itself.

      Over Libya the US and EU did create a working alliance with Islam and Sharia. That is the essence of the breaking of the working alliance they had with Muammar Gadhafi.

      But Iran is something else again. Here the strange figure of the Twelfth Iman rears his ugly head into the situation. Just how suicidal is American Imperialism in the world of today and is it prepared to have Iran with a Nuclear Bomb?

      I think myself not and that the Iranian Nuclear Bomb is a threat to them also, and not solely to Israel. (Others do not agree. But whatever, it is academic…Israel must act alone if necessary but act in alliance if possible, that is the only tactic open)

      Thus the Israeli leadership should not bargain over this issue.

      Yes they will and should create an alliance where they can over the Iranian Nuclear Bomb threat (to all) but Israeli leaders must act to take every measure to protect Jews from the anti-Semitism of the Arabs (on the home front as well as on the Iranian Nuclear Bomb front).

      That means immediately to destroy Hamas, to destroy Fatah, to offer Arabs every right to live in the land of Israel, but on the proviso that they are loyal to Israel.

      Loyalty to Israel is the key concept here. Note that this applies very much also to Jews who are disloyal to Israel.

      But Netanyahu will not do this. So we are back to how to get a new leadership which will act like this?

      But in the meantime, because that new leadership is not there, remember a United Front against the fascist enemy of Iran is necessary, as I have always said.

    10. Davida Geller Rosenberg says:

      ALL TOGETHER NOW, SING THESE WORDS:

      On a clear day, rise and look around you,
      and you’ll see WHO you are.

      On a clear day, nothing will astound you,
      but the glow of your BEING (Israel!)
      outshines every star.

      You’ll feel part of,
      every mountain, sea and shore,
      You will hear from far and near
      a Word you’ve never heard before

      On a clear day, On a clear
      You can see FOREVER, AND EVER MORE!

    11. Dr Yeruham (Frank) Leavitt says:

      Ted,

      I basically agree with you, but I take issue with your statement:

      >The PA realized that it had gotten all it could through negotiations, which is >virtually nothing,

      We gave them a hell of a lot: most of Hevron, all of Gaza, Ramala, Jenin, most of the Shomron, Yatta, Samoa, etc etc. And we lost a lot of lives as a result of this. Just one example is Shalhevet Pas HY”D. When Netanyahu was Prime Minister for the first time, he honoured agreements made by his predecessors and gave those creatures the Abu Snena area of Hevron. This area was perfect for snipers. One of them shot Shalhevet in the head.

      Very best,

      Yeruham

    12. Vinnie says:

      Felix Quigley,

      I think perhaps you over-analyze Bibi. I would say the problem is more straightforward.

      If Denmark were surrounded by enemies, and say, the Ukraine was deveoping nuclear arms and openly stated their intention to “wipe Denmark off the map”, no matter how technically advanced Denmark may be or how powerful their military – as could be realistically attained with their resource and population base – they’d need allies to help them deal with these threats. Allies who would sell them arms. Allies who could be counted on to supply munitions and spare parts in time of war. Allies who’d watch their back and stick up for them in international forums. Etc.

      Israel cannot simply “go it alone”. Some here say she can, but if she did in the face of all that threatens her, and she prevailed, that would be an astounding and stupendous historic first. Maybe she might do that…but I’m not counting on it (no, I’m not an atheist, everybody…I just don’t count on divine intervention…it wasn’t there in 1942, and I don’t expect it today…sorry of that sounds blasphemous to some of you…)_

      If Bibi really did take the bull by the horns right now and pound the living crap out of Hamas, Fatah, Hezbollah, etc., as they so richly deserve, given the state of the rest of the so-called “West” – particularly with that Saudi stooge, Obama in charge of it’s most powerful member – he’d lose all support vis-a-vis Iran.

      Now, who has the means to physically destroy Israel? Hamas? No. Fatah? No. Saudi Arabia? No. Maybe they have the money, and can buy lots of planes, and may have even squirreled away a few nukes, but the Saudis much prefer to let others do their fighting for them. Just ask Gen. Schwartzkopf.

      But if Iran gets the bomb, even one bomb, then the pereived risks in terms of nuclear terrorism in reaction to any attempt to stop them from there will be too great for anyone, even Israel. Once they have that one bomb, Iran has a clear path to build more.

      And if the mullahs there stay in power long enough to build an arsenal of say, 30 warheads they can place on IRBMs, they WILL foment a pretext, via their proxies in Lebanon, to fire them at Israel. This is as sure as night follows day. They know they will suffer incredible damage, but just like the loons both here and in the USSR during the Cold War who blathered on about “winnable” nuclear war, the mullahs think Iran will survive and Israel won’t. They’re half right. Nobody survives.

      But the Saudis and other rich Gulf Arab states, who have poured billions into demonizing Israel for the past several decades, have poisoned the well of debate so thoroughly that the idea of taking any sort of risk to “save Israel” is anathema to most Western leaders. We don’t think twice about the possibility of having to fight a far more destructive war on the Korean peninsula to save South Korea from North Korea, but to take any risk in the direct defense of Israel, well, suggest that and you might as well be Jonathon Pollard!!!

      Bibi has to know all of this. He knows that as things have progressed in the media/PR war that has been waged against Israel, that he and the Israeli leadership in general is only just now learning how to fight, his “support” from his “allies” hangs by a very thin thread. So, he has to prioritize, and deal with the very crappy hand he has been dealt.

      He has to pretend to be for “peace” with the Pali thugs so far as this can garner for him the barest minimum of support he needs to deal with the most important physical existential threat of this moment in history, and that is Iran.

      Once that is dealt with, yes, he can then afford to deal with “other things”. With the last major physical existential threat to Israel removed, with the wealth Israel already has and what she has to look forward to from her energy reserves, she will be able to deal from a position of great strength.

      The Sunni bad guys know this, and are between the proverbial rock and a hard place. For their own medieval religious reasons, they have this insane imperative to get rid of Israel, in much the same way that a rabik KKK goon has to get rid of a black family in a white neighborhood. But they have a lot of money and sympathizers in the West with whom they can indulge their little “compulsion”. Now that Israel is getting so strong, the urgency with which they must accomplish their little “pogrom” has increased exponentially. The black dude is about to take their daughter out on a date! He’s gotta be stopped!!!!!

      But they face the real threat of Iran themselves. That isn’t some product of made up psychotic bloody-minded bigotry. That’s a real threat. They can’t deal with it themselves. It’s as if the black family in the white neighborhood is the only one that can chase away the wolf that threatens them all!

      The bad guys have near complete control of the global print and broadcast media. What they were capable of was demonstrated by the Gaza flotilla incident of May 2010. This mechanism is primed to strike when the next war breaks out. Their ideal scenario: Israel does the dirty work for them and takes out Iran’s nukes, then a big war erupts on Israel’s frontiers, Israel is left without U.S. support due to Obama, cornered, Israel comes out swinging with everything she’s got, CNN is there to record it all….and Israel winds up being expelled from the UN, branded a pariah state a al Rhodesia in the 1970s, and is strangled economically and politically.

      That’s the plan. I don’t think it will work out that way. Not here in the U.S., really, or in Canada. Maybe in Europe, but that is not enough. We’re fighting back in the media/PR war here more than I think the bad guys counted on. But it is and will be a tough fight.

      No, what Bibi is doing is not some kind of uniquely Jewish, Ghetto-mentality dynamic. He’s not perfect, but he’s dealing with the situation in a realistic manner by and large. It stinks, but there it is.

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