US, Israel in open rift over Iran: Big joint military drill cancelled
DEBKAfileExclusive Analysis January 15, 2012, 3:31 PM (GMT+02:00)
US-Israeli discord over action against Iran went into overdrive Sunday, Jan. 15 when the White House called off Austere Challenge 12, the biggest joint war game the US and Israel have every staged, ready to go in spring, in reprisal for a comment by Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Moshe Yaalon in an early morning radio interview. He said the United States was hesitant over sanctions against Iran’s central bank and oil for fear of a spike in oil prices.
The row between Washington and Jerusalem is now in the open, undoubtedly causing celebration in Tehran.
Nothing was said about the 9,000 US troops who landed in Israeli earlier this month for a lengthy stay. Neither was the forthcoming visit by Gen. Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint US Chiefs of Staff, Thursday mentioned.
The exercise was officially postponed from spring 2012 to the last quarter of the year over “budgetary constraints” – an obvous diplomatic locution for cancellation. It was issued urgently at an unusually early hour Washington time, say debkafile’s sources, to underscore the Obama administration’s total disassociation from any preparations to strike Iran and to stress its position that if an attack took place, Israel alone would be accountable.
Israel’s Deputy Prime minister further inflamed one of the most acute disagreements in the history of US-Israeli relations over the Obama administration’s objections to an Israel military action against Iran’s nuclear sites in any shape or form. Yaalon ventured into tricky terrain when he pointed out that US Congress had shown resolve by enacting legislation for sanctions with real bite. But the White House “hesitated.” He went on to say: “A military operation is the last resort, but Israel must be ready to defend itself.”
The friction was already fueled last week by the deep resentment aroused in Israel by Washington’s harsh condemnation of the assassination last Wednesday, Jan. 11, of the nuclear scientist Prof. Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan, and absolute denial of any US involvement.
Although Tehran has since accused the United States of the attack, the White House treated it as the defiant sign of an approaching unilateral Israeli military operation against Iran to which the administration is adamantly opposed.
Friday, Jan. 13, the Pentagon announced the substantial buildup of combat power around Iran, stationing nearly 15,000 troops in Kuwait – two Army infantry brigades and a helicopter unit – and keeping two aircraft carriers the region: The USS Carl Vinson, the USS John Stennis and their strike groups.
Debkafile’s military sources report that a third aircraft carrier and strike group, the USS Abraham Lincoln, is also on its way to the Persian Gulf.
This massive military buildup indicates that either President Obama rates the odds of an Israel attack as high and is bolstering the defenses of US military assets against Iranian reprisals – or, alternatively, that the United States intends to beat Israel to the draw and attack Iran itself.
The official purpose of Gen. Dempsey’s visit next Thursday was supposed to be coordination between the US armed forces and the IDF. But his main object was another try to dissuade Israel’s government and military leaders from plans to strike Iran without Washington’s prior consent.
The “budgetary constraints” pretext for cancelling Austere Challenge 12 is hard to credit since most of the money has already been spent in flying 9,000 US troops into Israel this month. Although the exercise in which they were to have participated was billed as testing multiple Israeli and US air and missile defense systems, the exercise’s commander, US Third Air Force Lt. Gen. Frank Gorenc, announced that the event was more a “deployment” than an “exercise.”
Its cancellation leaves Washington and Jerusalem at loggerheads in four main areas:
1. President Obama believes he is rushing through the sanctions against Iran’s central bank CBI and oil restrictions with all possible speed. He needs time to persuade more governments to support him. Israel sees little real progress in the crawling diplomatic bid for backers and is impatient for action. At the rate the sanctions are going through, they will not be in place before the end of 2012 and by then, Iran will have already acquired a nuclear weapon.
Israeli leaders also suspect that the Obama administration may be foot-dragging deliberately in the hope of encouraging Iran to enter into negotiations and so avoid a military showdown. They point out that all previous rounds of talks were exploited for Iran’s forward leaps in their nuclear weapon drive, free of international hassle.
2. President Obama insists on the US acting alone in attacking Iran with no Israeli military involvement. This would leave him free to decide exclusively when and how to stage an operation. He is counting on the tightened military and intelligence cooperation he has instituted between the two armed forces and agencies to safeguard Washington against the surprise of a lone Israeli action.
But Israel has declined to make this commitment – even in the face of US officials’ efforts at persuasion.
3. US military strategists are counting on an Iranian reprisal for an attack on its nuclear sites to be restrained and limited to certain US military assets in the region, Israeli targets and oil installations in the Persian Gulf, including a temporary and partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which one fifth of the world’s oil passes.
They expect Israel to refrain from striking back for Iranian attacks and to leave the payback option entirely in American hands. US officials have said they fear an Israeli overkill would tip the entire American military operation into imbalance and generate unforeseen consequences.
The incoming US troops were therefore armed with the sophisticated missile interceptorTHAAD systems (easily transportable Terminal High Altitude Area Defense hit-to-kill weapons) to show the Israeli government that the US would stay on top of all the military moves against Iran – offensive and defensive alike.
On these three points, the US and Israel disagree. Neither Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, nor Defense Minister Ehud Barak or Deputy Prime Minster Yaalon, who are responsible for all decisions on Iran, are willing to put all their trust for defending Israel in American hands or relinquish unilateral military options against Iran. They believe US officials when they assert that the administration is prepared to prevent Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon, but they want to see proof of the pudding and actions to back up the rhetoric. In the light of credible intelligence that Iran is very close to achieving its nuclear goal, Israel is holding on to its military option over American objections.
Our al-lie.
Our al-lie:
USAID forking over $750 million in jizya to aid “Palestinian” infrastructure
Obama is protecting Iran here. How far will he go?
After 9/11 fakestinians danced and clapped in the streets and handed out lollies (yanks say candy). Arafat threatened to shoot reporters showing those pictures. But the states still dolls out the cash to those that hate them.
Imperial America has never countenanced non compliance of their diktat by their Vassals. Matter of fact no Empire or superpower historically ever has.
American oil companies and Wall St. want in on Iranian oil, they stand to enrich themselves far more than what they get from the Saudis. American companies are allowed only fixed rate service contracts from ARAMCO, The Iranians reverse the % from that of the Saudis.
As I said on another thread that the 10K American troops sent here are American Babysitters. So is the X-Band radar installations America operates in the Negev. Now that the fiction of Missile Drill is gone what is the continued justification excuse for the continued American deployment (occupation, sarc;)?
Israel should invite the Russians to develop our gas and oil potential, so any attack against their installations would or could put Russia and Israel on the same side both militarily and politically. (Common economic interests). I would say the Chinese but they are too weak militarily.
I remember when I used to think the US of A (USA, USA) was a good guy, at least some of the time. I want my illusions back.
Speaking of the Chinese, you certainly live in interesting times, and an interesting place.
As do we all, wherever we are.
That was a Chinese curse.
Do you think the choice of the Land of Israel was chance. Location Location is everything!!!
The American people are the good guys.
Do they really believe US officials under this administration? I am a US citizen and I don’t trust them with anything, much less the lives of some other country they treat with open contempt. Stay on your toes, Israel. Remember the USS Liberty.
Russia has declared that an Israeli strike against Iran will be considered as an attack on Russia. Business is business, and politics is politics. I don’t expect the Russians to ally with Israel any time soon. Prospects are much brighter with the South Koreans.
Concerning the US troops currently quartered in Isarel, they are presumably technicians and associated staff. Their specialty is manning the missile defense system, with or without Austere Challenge 12; and if the Iranians, Hizzies and Hamasies start lobbing missiles at them, I would be surprized if they did not try to intercept them. Some troops may have been “extras”, sent specifically for the maneuvers. Perhaps they will be redeployed to the Gulf, to protect US assets and citizens there. God knows, the US military ought to do something to secure that theater; because an Israeli strike on Iran will certainly court retalliation against the Americans. The chance of Iranian missiles causing damage in Israel is slight; but one good shot of a cruise missile against a major US vessel would be a great morale booster for the Iranians if Israel blasted them.
The US is mainly concerned about protecting its citizens and assets, and protecting commerce for the multinationals. I think they are completely myopic concerning nuclear proliferation, as are the Russians and Chinese. Of course, election-year politics is also high on the agenda. Israel, on the other hand, is in a struggle for survival against an Iraninan government that has sworn to destroy her. It is therefore a good thing, that Israeli PM Netanyahu is distancing himself from Washington. Israel has a right and duty to strike Iran at whatever time it deigns this necessary; and the US needs to be ready to handle its share of the consequences.
Israel has one more thing to consider: Whenever it has acted in its self-defense, Washington and Moscow have teamed up against her and pressured her (with nuclear-tipped pressure) to prematurely call off hostilities. For this reason, Israel will have to attack Iran all the more quickly and firecely — if need be, with nuclear weapons. It would be in the interest of the Americans to consider this, and accomodate Israel lest things get more out of hand than they need to.
I would not be averse to Israel following the Saudi example and inviting the Yanks to leave. As one of the pundits here has pointed out elsewhere, the missile defense system is largely of Israeli design, and the Israelis should be more than able to control it themselves.
I don’t think Obama plans to beat Israel to the punch. He wants a certain amount of election-year bluster, making small-to-moderate waves on otherwise calm waters. He cannot afford a serious fuel hike, the loss of a Navy ship, a disaster in Iraq involving American casualties, etc. He is willing, I believe, to allow world nuclear proliferation to spin out of control AFTER he gets re-elected, in exchange.
Israel would do well, to thwart Obama and lob a few at the ayyatolahs; and if the Iranians stage a nuclear test, Israel should certainly stage one of their own — in Iran. That ought to send a convincing message to would-be anti-Israeli nuclear powers in the region. Obama isn’t playing with dynamite with his duplicity: He’s playing with something thousands of times more potent.
All that said, I wouldn’t be surprized to see the Stennis rotated out of service in the next couple of days. DEBKA has a habit of treating normal rotations as naval buildups.
Obama refuses to give Israel credible assurances that he will use force, and in time, to stop Iran. People say Obama is hoping to persuade Iran with sanctions and a (cosmetic?) U.S. buildup. We must also allow that Obama may actually be playing a clever and sinister double game to prevent Israeli action while deliberately allowing Iran to get the bomb. We have seen enough of Obama to suspect that he is indeed the Manchurian candidate with an agenda to take down both America and Israel.
Obama’s actions now may help to expose his real intentions and prevent Israel from placing their survival in Obama’s hands. I wish that Israel would go public with demands that Obama prove that he will act in time by issuing an ultimatum to Iran with a date certain. Failing that, Israel could publicly declare that they no longer have any trust in Obama and therefore reserve full freedom of action without consulting anyone.
Israel is being set up to take the fall over Iran.
We can counter it by waging an attack if time allows on the wed. after the elections using tactical nukes on every vital nuclear and military installation installation of Iran. Israel should publicize targets of retaliation should Iran think they can retaliate against Israel. Like Tehran and all the oil fields.
When the UN and the security council demand Israel give up our nukes we should be in a position to say sorry, we don’t have any, we used them all.
I agree. This is my concern as well. There is absolutely no evidence that this administration is able to appreciate what Israel is up against. It is hard to see it as anything but hostility.
Yamit,
I can usually count on you for a line drive into left field. We aren’t that far apart on this issue. I am not advocating that Israel use nuclear weapons against Iran; but I cannot rule out that possibility, because US, Russian and Chinese policy seems to be driving them in that direction. The longer Iran is allowed to develop its nuclear program, and the more the big powers agree with one another to try to hamstring Israel, the more Israel needs to seriously consider the nuclear option.
I believe the Obama administration is reconciled to a nuclear-weapon Iran, just as Reagan was reconciled to a nuclear Iraq, Clinton and Bush I were reconciled to nuclear-weapon Pakistan, etc., and Bush II was reconciled to nuclear-weapon North Korea, Libya, Egypt, etc. The tolerance level seems to be well above 100 weapons — a level which Iran probably will not reach for years. When it does reach that level, I think the “Big Boys” (Oceania, Eurasia and East Asia) will issue Iran an ultimatum: Give us the nukes and submit to One World Government, or we will obliterate you. Needless to say, Israel will be given the same ultimatum. If a million here, and ten million there perish in the bargain, c’est la vit — all the more reason to depend on Big Sam to protect us.
For Israel to partner with the US concerning Iran, is like a baby lamb seeking protection by a hungry lion. It’s ludicrous, and I’m glad to see that Israel’s leaders are beginning to wise up to the matter. Up until now, Israeli cooperation with the US has been relatively non-lethal. In the case of the Iranian threat, it is life-threatening to the whole Israeli people.
When Israel comes online with a public nuclear testing program, I imagine it would be to test some of their fancier, forward-edge gadgets. The other stuff is so well-worked, they can pretty much rely on sims. I just keep thinking what a shame it would be, to waste a good warhead on a test when they could be dropping it on Iran.
I don’t agree with your statement in the box, that implies Israel should dump its whole arsenal on the Tehran regime. Israel has over 200 enemies, some 20 of which, at least, require nuclear strikes to properly neutralize on Doomsday. They need to keep quite a few in reserve.
Laura:
BALONEY- I WILL CHOSE ISRAEL OVER AMERICA ANY DAY OF THE WEEK.
This Obama character wants a second Shoah.
Israel made a terrible mistake when they began receiving the $2 billion yearly in credits mainly. They have acted like the US’ b-tch . Israel doesn’t need the US . Israel is the 3rd or 4th leading exporter of weapons in the world. It shows the incredible quality of their products when you consider they are generally treated as a pariah by most nations. The Chinese people , although most have little or no knowledge of Jews have the most favorable opinion of Jews of any large nation. They also would be a purchaser of Israeli weapons and other exports. Israel would more than make up for forgoing the US aid which comes with being treated like a piece of sh-t including having an totally unqualified antisemitic b*tch like Hiliary or Rice actually scream at Israeli officials or have the political whore Leon Schnozzetta tell them they can’t defend themselves, not to mention Obama who isn’t fit to shine Netanyahu’s shoes but treats him like the leader of an enemy nation. I again recommend John Loftus’ book which has convinced me Israel and Jews in general have been “played” by the rulings cliques of the US and due to oil and international profits will never treat Israel like an ally.
Its par for the Obama course to lie about the reason for cancellation–budgetary concerns had absolutely nothing to do with it!
If Iran gets the nuclear bomb or enough of them, I’m not so sure Israel will be the target but I know the U.S. will be one. Why do I say this? The Obama administration has been kissing Iran’s derriere so much that it invites the contempt of the Mullahs. Hitting the U.S. with a nuclear bomb after Obama has done so much to appease Iran would utterly humiliate the great Satan and — in Ahmadinejad’s eyes — bring about the hidden iman to boot.
Keep in mind that picture behind Ahmadinijad: HERE, and you will note that while the Israel egg is falling, the American egg (depicted as an egg) is smashed on the ground.
So just which country will be on the receiving end of an Iranian nuclear bomb? And when an Iranian bomb does strike America, world antisemitism will blame the Jews for not using planes to delay the centrifuges.
There will be a whipping up of hysteria against the Jews that will overtake rationality.