Want peace? Democratize Jordan
By Ted Belman
I have not been a fan of the “Jordan is Palestine” option, however it was defined, because it required the consent of King Abdullah. I preferred a unilateral, made in Israel, solution.
But that was then and this is now.
Mudar Zahran, a Jordanian Palestinian exiled in London, has been communicating with me about his desire and ability to form a secular democratic government in Jordan, should fair elections take place. He is seeking my help in getting the US government to influence King Abdullah to democratize and in getting Israel to embrace the change.
Why me and how I plan to go about achieving this will be the subject of another article. But first I would like to say why I am so excited about this possibility.
Zahran advises that the Palestinians represent a large majority of all residents of Jordan and they are trending secular, and are anti the Muslim Brotherhood, King Abdullah and Mahmud Abbas. They are tired of waiting for a peace deal to emerge from the process, isn’t 60 years enough, and want to take their destiny in their own hands.
They envisage a demilitarized state which is a protectorate of Israel and the US. They want full normalization and full economic relations with Israel.
They have agreed to invite all Palestinians to move to Jordan and receive full citizenship. In effect, Jordan would become Palestine, which it was once part of, according to the San Remo Resolution and the Palestine Mandate. It would mean that UNWRA would be wound up and that the West could transfer its economic assistance from the Palestinians in Judea and Samaria to the Palestinians in Jordan. The money would no longer be going down the drain in Judea and Samaria or into the pockets of the corrupt few, but instead would be used to build a stable Palestinian state in Jordan. Financial incentives would be provided to all Palestinians to move to Jordan.
It would mean the end of the Oslo Accords and the PA. Israel would exercise sovereignty of Judea and Samaria. It would truly usher in the New Middle East.
For the “peace Process”, ’tis “a consummation devoutly to be wished”.
What this proposal amounts to, is exchanging King Abdullah as an absolute soverign, for a democratic (to the extent that this is possible in the Arab world) regime with ties to Israel, in a country that already exists with defined boundaries. The only way I can see this working, is if Abdullah is convinced that the US and Muslim Brotherhood (who, under Obama and the US State Department are essentially one and the same) want to slaughter his family and drag his disfigured carcass through the streets. If he were allowed titular sovereignty and offical Israeli protection in Jordan, that would offer him a palatable alternative.
Whatever is agreed concerning the Arabs in Israel, Green Line and otherwise, is actually a secondary issue. Even with a very cooperative Abdullah and pro-peace Levantine Arab faction, terrorist groups such as Hamas and the PLO will continue with their murderous platform. The main differences between this proposal and what will most likely happen without it are:
(1) Abdullah and his family stand a better chance of suvival teamed up with Israel than with the US, and
(2) Israel will have a partner with at least some legitimacy among both Bedouin and non-Bedouin Arabs across the Yarden. The alternative is that Abdullah entrusts himself to the tender mercies of the Brotherhood, and Israel is faced with a completely hostile neighbor.
It makes sense to me. I acknowledge Israel’s right to territory up to Yarden and Yarmuk, but not beyond. The boundaries are clearly defined in Torah and in Ezekiel. The agreement in the book of Joshua between the Jews and the 2-1/2 tribes east of Yarden no longer applies, since those tribes have disbanded.
This has always made the most sense. Jordan has always been the de facto Palestinian state.
By the way, I see a MAJOR obstacle, in Israel’s treachery against the Southern Lebanese Army. Abdullah needs some ironclad, not paper, guarantee that this will not happen to him. That betrayal, by the way, happened because of the complicity between the Barak government and the double-dealing Americans. A key to success with Abdullah would be a disconnect between both Jordan and Israel with Washington.
Ted, please note that my corollary comment is in moderation.
Question for BlandOatmeal – You and Mr Belman are making good points. How much would these 2 factors play into your senirio. 1. Any attemp to democritize or mordernize in a “muslem” country means alot of people there are going to see your ideas of democracy as “anti-muslem” and 2. Abdullah and the Jordanian monarchy is actually a Saudi family imposed on Jordan by the Saudis. The Suadis while putting on a moderate face for the west essentially still support the Palestinian cause.
The same way YoursTruly envisages a kosher pork chop.
There’s only one known instance of a “demilitarised state” in modern history.
It didn’t turn out well, Boys & Girls
— because the proposition was unnatural & myopic. . . .
and because such an arrangement, by its nature, could be only as enduring as the will of its proponents to enforce it.
When push came to shove — and can you say R-H-I-N-E-L-A-N-D ? — the enduring will of its proponents. . . . wasn’t.
What’s more, and I’m sorry to be a wet blanket, Ted: I can’t help wondering what’s in it for Abdullah.
My dollar to your donut says that a figurehead (or otherwise de-fanged) Hashemite monarch would be dead in a matter of months after “democratisation.” And his family wouldn’t be safe either, from that point onward. Abdullah may have been educated at Sandhurst, but Jordan isn’t Britain.
Don’t get me wrong — I like the idea of Jordan becoming The Pali State; it’s the logical place for it (if they’re to have a state), though demilitarisation strikes me, with all due respect, as fatuous & absurd — a silly pipedream.
I just think the Hashemites have unfinished business to attend to on the Arabian Peninsula, and that’s ONE of the reasons (among many) that I favor a Jordanian move on the Hejaz (and other points south) FIRST.
Dennis, that does not compute. Run that by me again, referring to some specific Middle East democracy movement. Egypt? Tunisia? Which of these movements is considered “anti-muslem”? That said, if Israel was concerned about what “alot of people” think, they would have committed mass suicide long ago..
This is incorrect. The Saudis are from an insignificant clan from the Najd region of central Saudi Arabia. The Jordanian monarchy is of the Hashemite dynasty, descendants of the prophet Muhammed. Until around 1920, the Hashemites ruled the populous western part of what is now Saudi Arabia which includes Mecca and Medina, the two Muslim holy cities. The Saudis allied themselves with Wahabbi Muslim extremists, and overthrew the Hashemites. The British mandate authorities then granted the exiled Hashemite King Abdullah the eastern part of Palestine (The western part, most of which is contained in the modern State of Israel, was reserved as a Jewish homeland).
I have no problem with “Jordan is Palestine”. Let the Jordastinians do what they want there. What follows afterward is up to them. Any attempt at outside intervention will negate any potential value in such a change, assuming such a potential would ever actualize.
Israel’s only interest in democratizing Jordan is to have Jordan become Palestine and invite all Palestinians to come. Its not about democratizing Jordan but about pulling the rug out from under the Palestine liberation movement and the so called right of return and of UNWRA.
Our concerns are 1) will they form the government, 2) will they invite all Palestinians, except those tainted with terror, as they have agreed.
If we believe that the answers to both of these questions are “maybe”, Then we must work toward getting the US to force Abdullah to resign and to manage the transition to the elections. Thereafter the needed money will come with strings to ensure the Palestinians keep their word. With US backing, the Plan will succeed. All money tthat goes to UNWRA and the PA will gradually be redirected to Jordan. And so on.
Actually, the decision to give Transjordanian Palestine to the Hashemites was made well BEFORE ibn Sa’ud overthrew Abdullah on the Peninsula.
From the Versailles Conference of 1919 until the Cairo Conference of two years later, Transjordanian Palestine was to have been part of the Jewish patrimony.
The amputation of Transjordanian Palestine from the Jewish National Home was first documented in the Churchill White Paper of 1922, and was given to Abdullah to mollify him after he proposed to try taking on the French army that had recently deposed his kid bother Feisal from the Syrian “throne” (family “honor,” & all that) at the time of the April 1920 San Remo Conference, when Greater Syria was broken into two mandates: a French one in the north [later to become the Republics of Lebanon & Syria respectively], and a British one in the South [comprised of Western & Eastern Palestine on BOTH banks of the Jordan, and orginally projected -- in their entirety --- for the Jewish National Home].
In return for his loss to the French, Feisal got Iraq from the Brits — essentially a booby prize (He’d wanted Syria so bad he could taste it) — and Abdullah got “Transjordan”
— and the process of jewing-down the Jews was well under way.
The Sa’udi’s completed the usurpation of the Hijaz a few years LATER — ibn Sa’ud declared himself King of the Hijaz in January 1926 — & merged it with their holdings in the Najd, thus consolidating their control of the Arabian Peninsula.
Thank you, Dweller, for the expansion and correction.
US backing produced the debacles in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia. If the US were involved with the deal, I would wash my hands of it.
We need the US to go along. The King and his army are totally dependent on US financial support. We must lobby in the US for the US to tell Abdullah to enable a constitutional democracy or even better, a republic. If the US says its time, Abdullah will go along. Better that he remove himself entirely.
The process should be managed by the US.They will have to set up a democratically elected constitutional assembly to write the constitutions. All residents would have a vote for this assembly.
I am looking for someone to write a study on the economics of unwinding UNWRA and the PA and redirecting the funding to Jordan to support the Palestinians there. Remember that the Palestinians in Jordan out number the Palestinians in J&S 2:1
Ted, if Jordan doesn’t somehow do this themselves, expecting the US to do it for them is simply a pipe dream.
Ah but there are so many Jews incapable of taking that on board.
Hell with all that went before I find Jews today repeating their mistakes in Syria
ASSAD MUST BE DEFENDED UNCONDITIONALLY!
The Jordanian monarchy won’t last long. The Palestinian majority will sooner or later take over that make believe state, and unable to create a viable economy there, they will turn to nationalism and militancy and probably terror against Israel. Jordan will become a huge Gaza, with many terrorist training camps, supported by the daudis, Iran and even the Americans.
Jordanians will extend their influence to those Arabs whom Israel failed to expel in violation of the commandment, and they will become “a trap for you,” “a sore in your eye,” and “masters over you.” In order to establish security, Israel would have no choice but to extend toward the Euphrates, relocating the hostile Arabs to Iraq. As if prompting Israel to fulfill the commandment, the strong and militant state of Iraq under Saddam was invaded for no reason and destroyed; now the way for relocating Palestinians and Jordanians is cleared.
The best thing for Israel is a belligerent Jordan either run as a Pali state or a State of Palis keeping the little King as a Fig-leaf symbolic but controllable head of state like the Queen of England.
Israel needs a lot of external prodding for her to utilize her military and economic might for territorial expansion, therefore we need a belligerent Jordan.
Beware of Taqiyya, Mr. Belman.
Although it is advantageous for “Jordan is Palestine” I do not see it happening willingly on the part of any players except Israel unless there is a deal between Israel, the PLO and Hamas for Israel to support their claim to jordan as part of the original mandate in exchange for transfer of arabs to Jordan. a giving up of the west bank and gaza in exchange for Jordan, although i cant see this happening either. The problem is that that the status quo maintains security for all the players power positions. If adbullah falls, as likely, the arabs may be able to be forcibly transferred from Israel under a war scenario with Jordan and the “palestinians” taking over jordan. Gaza would remain a problem. However this leaves a larger and more hostile state on the eastern border. Perhaps this is ok. The best scenario though very unlikely is that all players cooperate, jordan becomes palestine with abdullah as symbolic head, Israel guarantees jordan’s security, as has already been done against syria,Jordan re-welcomes Palestinians home under a massive economic global and Israeli investment umbrella.
The Palestinians are as much an anathema to King Abdullah’s Jordan, as to Israel. King Hussein was thrilled to see them leave. This chess game will not work, even after King Abdullah is gone. Palestinian leaders will not let their people rest.If the Palestinian people accept democracy – anywhere – it will make their leaders redundant. In short, it won’t help to deport Palestinian hostility to Jordan. Hostility is harmful to us and to others wherever they are.
Batya Casper
http://www.israelathebook.com
This initiative bypasses Hamas, PA and Fatah and also pulls the rug out from under them. The Jordanian Palestinians want to take hold of their destiny. They want to cooperate with Israel, not confront Israel
You are missing it too. According to polls on Palestinian attitudes in J&S, 40% of Palestinians want to leave. That will increase when cash incentives are provided. by Jordan or Israel. Jordan has twice as many Palestinians as are in J&S.
I am all for this, Ted, as you know.
The main obstacles to be overcome, in my view, are these:
1) The U.S. under Obama is just not going to do this. Obama simply loves The Kinglet of Jordan. Obama reportedly told him after meeting him, “I wish we could clone you.” The Kinglet declared after Obama took office that Jordan now had a closer alliance with Washington than was the case for Israel. I’m sure that is true.
Groundwork can be laid in the meantime by finding sympathetic ears to the plan among people with influence in the U.S., but it ain’t happenin’, in terms of execution, while Obama is in office.
…Which could well be for five more years, unless he is impeached in his second term, also a good possibility if the Senate turns over. But that is another topic.
2) The PA is not just going to throw up their hands and say, “Oh, drat! Jordan is Palestine now. We’re all out of jobs. Guess we might as well fold up our tents and quietly fade away.”
Implicit in the implementation of this plan is that the PA is going to have to be destroyed at some point. They aren’t going down as the anointed representatives of Palestinian nationalism without a fight. It will mean a “super Intifada”, that ends with the IDF finishing them off once and for all. No letting anybody escape to Tunisia. At the other end of this, every important civil and military leader in the PA – Hamas or Fatah or whatever – must either be dead or in jail.
Not that I, or presumably, anyone else on this forum has a problem with that. But we have to be realistic about what we’re talking about here. And this second reason is why – besides Obama’s great affection for the Kinglet that seems to border on a gay crush – you can absolutely FORGET about Obama and his sorry crew playing ball with this.
It’s all b.s. to get Israel to go along with it. Every Arab Muslim country that went democratic has elected the worst Jew haters in the world since Hitler. The Jordanians will be no different. Don’t believe Zahran. His words are not worth sh*t. A sovereign country that wants to become a protectorate of the US and Israel – give me a break. No one, no one, no one is going to do Israel’s work for it, not the Americans, not the Jordanians. Israel’s work is to kill the Jew haters. End of story.
Like Ted, I’ve communicated with Zahran directly and I believe he’s sincere. But he’s just one guy.
He’s idealistic, Linda. When the revolution began in Egypt, he assured me that the Islamists would be kept out of power and the right sort of “modern” Moslems, like himself, would get in. I was skeptical then…I knew and it was subsequently proven that he was engaging in wishful thinking.
If Zahran were to achieve his dream and get into power in Jordan – a long shot, but perhaps a plausible long shot – even then, he’d have to contend with a lot of competing segments in Jordanian society. What’s he going to do? Deport all of the Islamists? Good luck with that. He’ll have to make compromises or he’s probably going to get killed, no matter how far he gets.
None of the above means that this is not a program worth pursuing, Linda.
Jordan as Palestine, even if hostile, takes the whole raison d’etre out of the PA. This means Israel can destroy the PA, seize J&S…and not have to say she’s sorry, especially if she’s faced with a hostile Jordan on her frontier. Because at this point, the biggest club in the PR/Media War used by the Palis to beat Israel over the head with: “They are denying our right to a homeland!”…will be no more. They’ve got their “homeland”, Jordan.
Jordan, Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, even Iran sans nukes do not have the ability to defeat Israel in a war between uniformed armies. They tried that for years and failed every time. The military gap is the widest it has ever been. Israel’s immediate neighbors are all pretty much broke and starving.
The only weapon they’ve got – besides the threat of WMDs – is a S. Africa/Rhodesia sort of delegitmization campaign. That is a very serious threat. That has worked before. The centerpiece of this strategy is the PLO/PA, and Jordan convincing the world of their Big Lie, that they are not “Palestinian”, and that the only “solution” to the Israeli Palestinian “problem” must come solely at Israel’s expense.
This needs to be stopped. Jordan as Palestine, in whatever form, is key to stopping it.