If Pigs Could Fly Polls
Abraham Center for Middle East Peace Poll
Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA: The Israeli media was filled today with the result of the two “If pigs could fly” polls commissioned by the Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace.
Why “if pigs could fly”?
Well, take a look at what the pollsters are asking.
There’s a trick to it.
Notice the loophole: “implementation would take place only after the Palestinians would fulfill all their commitments with an emphasis on fighting terror”
If you haven’t figured it out yet, here is the obvious question that the pollsters didn’t ask: “Do you think, if Israel accepted this deal, that the Palestinians would fulfill all their commitments?”
Judging from pretty much every poll of Israelis in the last decade, at least 75% would respond “NO” – and among Meretz voters at least 60% would also answer “NO”.
This of course brings us to an interesting question: why in the world do 65-66% of Jews reply “support”?
Well, let me answer that question with a question:
Why do most Israelis respond that we should negotiate with the Palestinians when most Israelis respond that they don’t think we will reach a deal if we negotiate?
How’s this for an explanation? Many of the 65-66% of Jews reply “support”
because they think that this is a “have your cake and eat it too”
proposition. That is to say, we can placate the world, and in particular
the White House, by agreeing to the deal, but since ” implementation would
take place only after the Palestinians would fulfil all their commitments
with an emphasis on fighting terror” the deal would never be implemented.
So who is right about the real thinking of the Israeli street? The folks
commissioning a poll that declines to actually figure out what the public is
really thinking or yours truly?
Well consider this result from a poll of Israelis interviewed by phone between December 9 and 13, 2012 in a poll planned and supervised by Prof. Yaacov Shamir, the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace and the Department of Communication and Journalism at the Hebrew University, 60% of Israelis think the Palestinians want to conquer Israel (42% also kill most of the Jews & 18% not necessary kill the Jews)
And this Dahaf poll of Jews the end of November 2012 commissioned by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs: Would a withdrawal to the 1967 borders and the division of Jerusalem bring about an end of the conflict? Yes 15% No 83%
No. The Israeli street doesn’t think that pigs can fly.