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  • January 23, 2013

    Bibi’s Obvious Option: Coalition with Lapid and Bennett

    Yori Yanover, JEWISH PRESS

    Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at his weekly cabinet meeting.
    Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at his weekly cabinet meeting.
    Photo Credit: Miriam Alster/FLASH90

    Benjamin Netanyahu’s main goal at this point is a government of at least between 65 and 67 seats. There’s no point in squeezing through with a coalition that would be living at the mercy of its members.


    This leaves out a purely right wing government that would include Shas, Torah Judaism, Jewish Home and even Power for Israel. As much as our hearts are yearning for just this coalition, it doesn’t seem likely.

    Besides its vulnerability, because of its size, it would not support the one issue over which Netanyahu has gone to the voter in the first place: the necessary budget cuts to cover a $10 billion deficit.

    Two winners tonight, Yair Lapid with a projected 19 seats and Naftali Bennett with 12, would likely partner with Netanyahu in support of those cuts. Shas and Torah Judaism would likely balk at steps that would victimize their core voters.
    So the first two alliances Netanyahu is likely to pursue should be Yesh Atid and Habayit Hayehudi. That’s 62 seats, which is a good foundation for a government that can be expanded.

    Tonight, Labor Chair Shelly Yachimovich spoke harshly and bluntly against going into a partnership with Likud-Beitenu, which she described as being on the opposite side of an ideological abyss. Whether or not she was planning to jump over said abyss — after tonight’s speech it would not be a simple feat.

    It is possible that Netanyahu will put together his 62-seat government, and after he passes the budget cuts he would then start negotiations with Shas to join his government — and at that point, after starving them a little in the opposition he could get them cheaper.
    It is vital for Netanyahu to position himself at the center of his own government, flanked to his right and left by his coalition partners. It would be terrible for him to be either the leftist edge of a right-wing coalition or the right winger in a leftist government. That makes Lapid and Bennett his ideal partners.

    Incidentally, it’s important to note that, party for party, Lapid has as many if not more seats than Netanyahu’s Likud faction without Liberman’s Israel Beitenu. This may be just Lapid’s fleeting moment in the sun, or the start of an amazing career of a brilliant politician — no one knows. The same could be said about Bennett.

    The coming negotiations with Bibi and his Likudniks would be a good testing ground for both gifted young men.

  • Posted by Ted Belman @ 3:41 pm | 18 Comments »

    18 Comments to Bibi’s Obvious Option: Coalition with Lapid and Bennett

    1. birdalone says:

      Totally agree that Lapid and Bennett need to be in Netanyahu’s governing coalition, if only to totally confuse the useless critics of Israel in the “west”.
      btw, Israel has a wonderful system of democracy. and only a three month campaign cycle, as opposed to the never-ending campaign that slowly destroys American politics.

    2. ArnoldHarris says:

      What evidence is there that Lapid’s centrist party and Bennett’s right-wing party would mutually agree to support Netanyahu’s government? For both of them, any such agreement would alienate their core voters.

      Arnold Harris
      Mount Horeb WI

    3. Canadian Otter says:

      DEAR ISRAELI VOTERS, I DON’T UNDERSTAND YOU.
      I don’t understand you at all. I don’t understand your country. I don’t understand you voting patterns. I don’t understand anything.

      I wish you good luck. You’re going to need it. Along with God’s unending patience. Maybe by the next election his children will be wiser.

    4. shachalnur says:

      60-60 has several consequences.
      Likud represents maybe 20 seats.
      So a viable government needs 5 parties at least.
      Bibi is not the “King of israel” anymore,much less the “Leader of the jewish people”.
      Maybe 600.000 voted for him.
      Another alternative is new elections,but that might backfire on Likud.
      There’s another option ,that leaves Bibi without any influence.(Like I’ve predicted)
      Watch Bennet,he’s a planted Banker asset,like Yachimovich,Lapid,Livni and Mofaz.(and Stanley Fisher)
      Very possibly Bennet and Lapid will team up with Livni,Yachimovich, Mofaz,and(one or both)of the religious parties.
      They only have to drop this “shivion be’nettel” rubbish,(Army service for the religious).
      In this case the Bankers will have completed their coup,and the Middle East War,spilling over from Syria can commence.

      Al-hayat,Londen based,claims Bulgaria says Hezbollah involved in Burgas.Bulgaria denies that.
      Timing,timing.
      Germany and France are not happy with that,Britain and US are.
      US just gave huge military support to Bulgaria,including new military bases.
      An isolated Hezbollah,on the “terror-list”,is a very dangerous hezbollah,nothing to lose.
      Israel is trying everything to quell the war in Syria.
      Israel is morally,militarily and politically not ready to fight Syria,Hezbollah,Hamas(supported by Egypt) and the PA all at the same time.
      Especially since US and Europe are not gonna lift a finger.
      Israel is being chocked by the bankers,internally and externally.

    5. Canadian Otter says:

      NO MORE LIKUD PRIMARIES. In case you missed this news item:

      PM Netanyahu said on Tuesday night, that he plans on canceling the primary system in the Likud, according to Channel 1. Instead of Likud party members voting for which candidates they want to run for Knesset, it appears that Netanyahu wants to personally select and place each candidate. http://www.jewishpress.com/news/breaking-news/no-more-likud-primaries/2013/01/23/

      A party without primaries and with a secret platform. What do you call that? A joke?

    6. Israeli election results – the price of ignorance – instability while facing Iran at a crucial time
      http://www.madisdead.blogspot.co.il/2013/01/israeli-election-results-price-of.html

    7. Canadian Otter says:

      @ Mladen Andrijasevic:
      Bibi’s goal was never to attack Iran.

      His real agenda has been and will continue to be to marginalize and to disempower the right wing – with the ultimate aim of DISENGAGING from Yesha (minus the main settlement blocks). Eastern Jerusalem is already for all practical purposes in Arab hands.

      His choice of political partners for a coalition will reflect this agenda.

    8. Eric R. says:

      @ ArnoldHarris:

      Arnold,

      I’ve read Lapid over at Ynetnews, and he could definitely co-exist with Bennett. Their primary foci are different. Lapid’s is domestic; while Bennett’s is defense/security/international.

      Lapid as Finance Minister; Bennett as Defense Minister, telling Herr Hagel to f*** off.

    9. If Bibi’s goal was never to attack Iran, how do you expect us to survive the Iranian nuclear attack?

      Why are Bernard Lewis’s views on MAD ignored?
      http://www.madisdead.blogspot.co.il/2012/05/why-are-bernard-lewiss-views-on-mad.html

      Particular importance should be attached to the policies, and perhaps still more the attitudes, of the present rulers of Iran, who seem to be preparing for a final apocalyptic battle between the forces of God [themselves] and of the Devil [ the Great Satan--the United States]. They see this as the final struggle of the End of Time and are therefore undeterred by any level of slaughter and destruction even among their own people . “Allah will know his own” is the phase commonly used, meaning that among the multiple victims God will recognize the Muslims and give them a quick pass to heaven.

      In this context, the deterrent that worked so well during the Cold War, namely M.A.D. (Mutual Assured Destruction) , would have no meaning. At the End of Time, there will be general destruction anyway. What will matter is the final destination of the dead– hell for the infidels, and the delights of heaven for the believers. For people with this mindset, M.A.D. is not a constraint; it is an inducement…

      Matthias Kuntzel – Antisemitism, Messianism and the Cult of Sacrifice:The Iranian Holy War
      http://www.madisdead.blogspot.co.il/2012/09/matthias-kuntzel-antisemitism_8.html

      So let me now sum up on this final point: There are other dictatorships in the world. But only in Iran are the fantasy-worlds of antisemitism and religious mission linked with technological megalomania and the physics of mass destruction. The specific danger presented by the Iranian nuclear option stems from the unique ideological atmosphere surrounding it – a mixture of holy war and high-tec, of antisemitism and weapons-grade uranium, of death-wish and missile research, of Shiite messianism and plutonium.

      http://atimetobetray.com/blog/in-support-of-democracy-in-iran/
      Once they get the nuclear bomb, and they have the nuclear capability, and anybody can determine this because they are running multiple convert operations, parallel projects of nuclear bomb and missile delivery systems. It is a parallel project for one purpose, and I can argue both sides of the coin, but my belief is that .this is a messianic regime, there should be no doubts, they will commit the most horrendous suicide bombing in human history. They will attack Israel, European capitals and Persian Gulf region at the same time, then they will hide in a bunker waiting for Mahdi to get out of that well, ride the white horse, draw that sword and kill the rest of the nonbelievers.

      MAD Deterrence and Mad Leaders
      http://www.madisdead.blogspot.co.il/2011/10/mad-deterrence-and-mad-leaders.html
      According to Shi’ite eschatology, the end of the world will come with the return of the Imam, whose arrival will be announced by violent pangs, unrest, wars, injustice and misery; and all the more, the more imminent his coming. Namely, mad leaders like Ahmadinejad, who are full of hatred and bellicosity, and imbued with messianic zeal and unimpressed by any worldly circumstances or restrictions, might very well, especially when controlling nuclear powers, decide to use them regardless of the costs or the consequences, as long as it will hasten the return of the Imam. For then, even the worst errors made by human leaders would, in their view, be redressed in an instant by the omnipotent Imam in the new post-apocalyptic world.

    10. Canadian Otter says:

      The future: More Islamic countries armed with nukes. Pakistan and Iran are the first.

      The suicidal West intends to arm other dysfunctional Muslim countries with nuclear material. For peaceful purposes, they say. Egypt, Jordan, Saudi and others will eventually get their nuclear reactors too. Maybe Canada will provide them with nice, shiny CANDUs. Their resulting plutonium can be diverted into nukes.

      That’s the world awaiting us in the future. A bunch of lunatics lobbing nukes at each other to settle some shiite vs sunni dispute. And if that does not happen, geological forces may unleash major earthquakes and nuclear mayhem, since much of that area is unstable.

      Have a nice day.

    11. dove says:

      Bibi did not win a majority government, therefore there is optimism that he won’t be able to sell out Israel. NO MORE LAND FOR PEACE…….PERIOD!!!

    12. Canadian Otter says:

      COMPLETELY UNRELATED

      But something to keep in mind, as governments impose a regime of vaccinations on children and adults.

      More than 800 children across Europe have been diagnosed with incurable neurological disorder (narcolepsy) and the evidence is overwhelming in the implication of the swine flu vaccine. The drug contained squalene which was used as an adjuvant. Squalene is the most likely culprit in the vaccine.
      http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/22/us-narcolepsy-vaccine-pandemrix-idUSBRE90L07H20130122

      In this part of the world schools started imposing vaccines on children. Now they require health workers to get flu shots, whether they want them or not.

    13. drjb says:

      Nothing is obvious to me anymore!
      I think Bibi does whatever is best for Bibi. Probably Lapid, Shelly and Shas. Bayt is out.
      I still can’t believe the Right did so poorly. All those votes wasted in Otzma could have made a big difference to Bayt. Eldad will be sorely missed, I still can’t understand why he couldn’t fit into Bayt.
      As I have said before, Feiglin was right! For all the criticism he took from the Right, Feiglin is in the ballgame, while all the “smart critics and true patriots” are sidelined yet again.
      who’s the smart one now?

    14. yamit82 says:

      @ drjb:

      Feiglin will be tested, and either way it turns out he loses. The first no confidence motion related to peace process give aways or destroying Jewish homes by his PM etc. If he votes with BB and the Likud he will have lost all credibility and if he votes against BB and the Likud BB will see he is kicked out of the Likud.

      MK must serve continuously for 2 1/2 years to be eligible for a pension. That alone keeps first term ne MK in line and will do nothing to rock the boat. I’m not say Feiglin is one of these but he will be tested and i wouldn’t credit him with attributes until he shows his mettle when the time comes.

      I suspect most of the Likud members he signed up voted for other parties and the Likud members know it. That reduces his clout within the Likud.

      BB has to get over several hurdles first one is getting enogh support by other parties endosrsing him for PM in order to get Peres to give him the first opportunity to form a government. I think the religious parties who have in the past sat in leftist governments will negotiate concessions for their recommendations. The media talking heads are all saying Lapid holds all the cards but BB could form a narrow right wing government that from a parliamentary pov be very stable so I’m not sure if he would use this obvious strenth against lapid and if he did whether it would work. One of Lapids demands for entering the coalition is negotiations with Little Hitler Abbas within 3 months. If BB agrees with that demand where is Bayit Yehudi? They clai they have no objections to entering into such negotiations and have no expectations anything will come of the negotiations. Lapid campaigned on not sitting in any government with Shas and the Haredim because of their stance on conscription and education. If he agrees to sit it will be the beginning of the end to his and his parties credibility to their voters. without Shas and the haredim he needs more than Lapid’s party.

      I see A-a call for new elections because a coalition can’t be made based on positions of the parties during the campaigns B- a coalition formed but can’t survive the coming conflicts and pressures placed upon BB by Obama and the EU. BB will have 45 days to form a coalition. Lat time he took the full 45 days. After one month Leiberman will be free fom his agreement with BB and can break away from the Likud. Nothing is for certain. Leiberman is facing prosecution and a lot depends if he can control his part of the coalition by remote control. Watch for Shamir the son, who is going to run things in place of Lieberman. Not sure Lieberman will beat the rap so Shamir along with Uzi Landau could be important.

      Likud lost almost a quarter of their traditional support in the South Beersheba, Ashdod and Asklelon. I suspect being rocketed by Hamas over the past 4 years had something to do with it. A lot of reservists have not forgotten BB’s Nov. fiasco. Israelis have lost identification to parties and the message here was no confidence in BB and they opted for Lapid as a safe haven for their votes, not too cold and not too hot a new face, and for women some say sex appeal had a lot to do with it as women were polled as the most undecided before the election.

    15. yamit82 says:

      comment in moderation????

    16. NormanF says:

      yamit82 Said:

      comment in moderation????

      Netanyahu wants to be seen as a centrist. Beyond that he has no ideology except remaining in power.

    17. For all intents and purposes, the role of all Israel lovers is to strengthen Bennett, regardless of what position is granted him in the new government. It at all.
      He is the future, and he is the alternative that did not exist until now.

      Ya’alon would be well rewarded for his principled stance against disengagement if given the Foreign Ministry post.

      As for the surprise results, a strong Yesh Atid, and a weakened Bayit Yehudi; one has to wonder whom it benefited, and whose influence produced this outcome.

    18. drjb says:

      @ Goldi Steiner, Founder and Chair of Canadians for Israel’s Legal Rights (CILR):
      Bennett the future?????? Are you kidding????
      Look, I like Bennett a lot but I’m realistic about his chances. He’s trying to transform Bayt, from a sectoral party into a national party, a “Likud II”. He will fail. As long as Likud exists, Bayt will always be a second fiddle. If he ever wants to position himself as a potential national leader, he has to move into Likud, like Feiglin did. I fear Bibi will even keep him out of the coalition, and then watch him disappear into the sunset!
      Lapid now has his chance, and if he plays his cards right, he will be the future!, much to my dismay.
      Likud and Lapid finally have a chance to deliver a death blow to Shas and UTJ by passing laws that remove the military conscription exemption of the Haredim and by reducing the stipend of Yeshiva students. All the Haredim will one day realize that those two parties, but especially Shas, have deliberately kept them poor and ignorant throughout the years at the whim of senile rabbis and their cronies. If most of them follow Rabbi Yosef’s ruling, they will leave Israel instead of joining the army. That will actually be good because in Galut they will have to work to earn a living! that will force them to go to school and join the workforce!!! :)
      One day, G-d willing, all these people who have wasted their votes in sectoral parties, will wake up, join hands and elect one truly nationalistic right wing party. May it come speedily in our days.

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