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  • February 21, 2013

    Yair Lapid would win new elections, poll finds

    What is Yair Lapid’s attraction. Please comment.

    In the (still unlikely) event Netanyahu fails to assemble a coalition and Israelis have to vote again, Likud will plummet, setting the stage for Yesh Atid 

    TOI

    If Israel were to go to another round of elections, Yair Lapid’s centrist Yesh Atid party would become the largest party in Knesset and the former TV anchor would likely be named prime minister, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud-Beytenu party would plummet, a poll published Thursday showed.

    The poll, ordered and released by the Knesset Channel, showed that if elections were to be held now, Yesh Atid would catapult to become the largest party by an overwhelming margin, up to 30 seats from its current 19. The rightwing-Orthodox Jewish Home party would also gain, climbing from 12 to 15 seats.

    In contrast, the more established Likud-Beytenu and Labor parties would both lose support, with Netanyahu’s faction winning a mere 22 seats — down from the 31 it won in January — and Shelly Yachimovich’s party dropping from 15 to 13.

    The poll showed minor fluctuations among the other Knesset parties.

    Though Netanyahu still has some time left to form a coalition, and he could receive a 14-day extension from President Shimon Peres that would give him until mid-March to do so, the current stalemate has raised the possibility of Israelis heading to the polls again in a couple of months.

    While Netanyahu and Tzipi Livni signed an agreement for her Hatnua party to join the next coalition, Likud-Beytenu has had little success in attempts to reach a breakthrough with Yesh Atid and the Jewish Home.

    These two parties have formed a united front on a number of key policy points, namely the matter of the Haredi draft, and have thus far resisted Likud’s overtures. Without one or both of those parties, Netanyahu would be left short of a 61-seat coalition in the 120-member Knesset.

    Reports Thursday indicated that the Jewish Home faction has started preparing for the option of new elections, in case Netanyahu fails to form a coalition. But most analysts believe, as in previous cases, a coalition will likely come together ahead of the deadline.

  • Posted by Ted Belman @ 10:31 pm | 25 Comments »

    25 Comments to Yair Lapid would win new elections, poll finds

    1. Dan says:

      The confused state of Israeli politics is a reflection of the confused state of Israel’s people. But not to worry, the Arab/Muslims’ hate for the Jews will always bring Israelis to their senses – if only temporarily.

    2. NormanF says:

      We all know that peace is impossible.

      Fortunately in every instance, Jewish wishful thinking about the Arabs is met with the adamantine wall of Arab extremism and rejectionism.

      Jewish niceness, goodwill and restraint will never lead to Arab hatred of the Jews and their state to disappear.

      This is an immutable fact of Middle East life.

    3. Dan says:

      @ NormanF:

      You are correct, sir. The Jewish predeliction for denial and wishful thinking meeting the iron wall of Arab/Muslim hatred for the Jews is the dialectic that defines the Arab-Israeli conflict. And it will remain so until the Jews abandon our willful stupidity or the Arabs/Muslims abandon their hatred – whichever comes first.

    4. Sam Goldblatt says:

      Lapid’s attraction is very simple: he’s not Netanyahu. The Israeli electorate is very attuned to doings in D.C. and they know that boy genius Bibi blew it with not just this White House, but with America as a whole. Americans do not like bumptious, overbearing, disrespectful foreigners, U.S. educated or not. Romney lost in part because he thought he would score points by treating the elected President of the United States as Bibi did – like a shoeshine boy. That’s why Livni suddenly entered the picture and why Chuck Hagel will be confirmed next week despite all his statements and with the support of Schumer, Cardin, Boxer, Wyden, Levin et. al. Because they couldn’t stomach the stupid oaf one minute longer either. Peace, shmeace, that’s not the issue. It’s that you can’t work with a guy that nobody trusts. Bibi is a pathological liar. The hero brother wasn’t but he is. The Israelies took a good long look and said: Asta lavista you big fat schmuck!

    5. Kenneth Mathews says:

      The right fights bitterly amongst itself – while the left swiftly rises in the background. Why this right-wing internal fight to the death over policies the Hareidim themselves already know are coming to a 5-6 year negotiated end. Is a Yair Lapid-led left-wing coalition the best option to deal with issues like: Iran, Syria, Egypt, the economy, the developing Gas/Oil industry, trying to strengthen Judaism, or “two-state solution” pressure from the US, EU, UN and Russia? I don’t think so – but since the irrational desire to fight the Hareidim, so far, seems stronger than the desire to secure ISRAEL & ZIONISM through just compromise and UNITY – we may have to find out the hard way. Please, Please, Please, come to your senses Likud-Beytanu, Jewish Home, Shas, UTJ !!!

    6. yamit82 says:

      In the same poll when asked who is favored to be PM BB won, wasn’t even close. BB got 28% Lapid 19% Bennet 11% all the rest in single digits and 17% none of them.

      Bennett meets BB tomorrow and his new demand is to cancel the agreement with Livni.

      Don’t want her negotiating with Palis and don’t want her in charge of Justice. That would kill any chance of the Levey Report being adopted or any reforms in selecting Judges not to mention sanctioning the police and prosecutors war against the settlers.

    7. yamit82 says:

      The only serious issue for Bayit HaYehudi is preventing the creation of a Palis state in Y&S and that’s what they were elected to do, for that they need to be in the government.

      Negotiating teams for Bayit Yehudi and Likud / Yisrael Beytenu are set to meet Friday morning for talks that may or may not signal the beginning of a rapprochement between the parties.

      Despite being close ideologically, both sides have thus far been playing tough political poker, and reported bad blood between the leaders has been preventing progress in coalition talks, with each side threatening the other. Bayit Yehudi says it is not afraid of heading toward new elections, while Likud is threatening the formation of a coalition with left-wing Labor.

      “Bayit Yehudi wants to be the coalition,” says Bayit Yehudi insider Jeremy Saltan. “It is not clear that Likud Beitenu wants Bayit Yehudi in the coalition”.

      Saltan, who served as the English Speaking Campaign Manager for the 2013 campaign, tells Arutz Sheva, in the sound track to the Youtube video above, that Bayit Yehudi is looking for answers on budget and government policy guidelines on key issues.

      “Bayit Yehudi is not looking for jobs or comfy seats in the cabinet. Bayit Yehudi will not be bought. Bayit Yehudi has a clear platform and the issues, not the jobs are what matter.

      “Livni had a joint press conference with Prime Minister Netanyahu in which she was given the judicial ministry and she was given the environmental ministry. We did not hear anything about the budget of how much money is going to those ministries. We don’t know what the government guidelines are going to be on those issues that are very important for those type of ministries. All we know is that she got a bunch of portfolios.

      “This is the way that Prime Minister Netanyahu has operated in the past, but he has to understand that if he wants the Bayit Yehudi in his coalition we need to talk about the issues not about the portfolios. And if he is able to do that Bayit Yehudi will be in the coalition as the party leader Naftali Bennett has said within 24 hours. The ball is in Netanyahu’s court.”

    8. yamit82 says:

      The only serious issue for Bayit HaYehudi is preventing the creation of a Palis state in Y&S and that’s what they were elected to do, for that they need to be in the government.

      Negotiating teams for Bayit Yehudi and Likud / Yisrael Beytenu are set to meet Friday morning for talks that may or may not signal the beginning of a rapprochement between the parties.

      Despite being close ideologically, both sides have thus far been playing tough political poker, and reported bad blood between the leaders has been preventing progress in coalition talks, with each side threatening the other. Bayit Yehudi says it is not afraid of heading toward new elections, while Likud is threatening the formation of a coalition with left-wing Labor.

      “Bayit Yehudi wants to be the coalition,” says Bayit Yehudi insider Jeremy Saltan. “It is not clear that Likud Beitenu wants Bayit Yehudi in the coalition”.

      Saltan, who served as the English Speaking Campaign Manager for the 2013 campaign, tells Arutz Sheva, in the sound track to the Youtube video above, that Bayit Yehudi is looking for answers on budget and government policy guidelines on key issues.

      “Bayit Yehudi is not looking for jobs or comfy seats in the cabinet. Bayit Yehudi will not be bought. Bayit Yehudi has a clear platform and the issues, not the jobs are what matter.

      “Livni had a joint press conference with Prime Minister Netanyahu in which she was given the judicial ministry and she was given the environmental ministry. We did not hear anything about the budget of how much money is going to those ministries. We don’t know what the government guidelines are going to be on those issues that are very important for those type of ministries. All we know is that she got a bunch of portfolios.

      “This is the way that Prime Minister Netanyahu has operated in the past, but he has to understand that if he wants the Bayit Yehudi in his coalition we need to talk about the issues not about the portfolios. And if he is able to do that Bayit Yehudi will be in the coalition as the party leader Naftali Bennett has said within 24 hours. The ball is in Netanyahu’s court.”

    9. the phoenix says:

      comment to goldblatt ZAPPED…
      (i miss being in the moderation box)
      :-(

    10. Shy Guy says:

      What is Yair Lapid’s attraction?

      The Stupid Jew factor.

    11. Bennett must be supported in every way.

      “The role given to Tzipi Livni as responsible for the negotiations with the Palestinians is not and will be not acceptable to us,” Bayit Yehudi officials told Arutz Sheva on Thursday, adding that a person who conducted negotiations over ceding parts of Jerusalem and agreed to return large parts of Judea and Samaria to the PA cannot receive such power.”

      How to prevent the Jihad against Israel.

      In this regard Bennett is the patriot, Livni is the pro Jihadist, along the lines of Obama and Mrs Clinton was in the case of the overthrow of Mubarak, Ben Ali, Gaghbo (who is now a prisoner in the Hague) and of course Gadhafi.

      Netanyahu is clearly a centrist politician, he sits in the middle and plays one off against the other. This concept of “Centrism” is a very useful concept to keep in mind.

      Livni and the ex TV character are clearly on the side of Jihad…that was why they were silent about the main issue in the election.

      i give Bennett great credit for opposing Livni because here he is opposing the main focus for the Jihad against Israel.

      I am personally glad to see Israpundit is writing to Bennett and offering him all support.

    12. Shy Guy says:

      Felix Quigley Said:

      Netanyahu is clearly a centrist politician

      No, he is self-serving. Left. Right. Whatever works.

    13. David Barrett says:

      I find some of the previous responses problematical. The country is on the verge of a possible war for the correct reasons; we have potential financial problems because of a strong shekel;it is obvious that our security apparatus is undergoing review and there comes along a load of yuppies , some with no education or previous local political knowledge saying they want to run the country. True there are social problems but name one government that ruled without any of these problems.We need seasoned experienced people at the helm who know when to play ‘dirty’ if needs be. The new parties should swallow their pride, despite their success at the polls, and accept what they are offered and then they should prove themselves capable.It is Israels survival that is important and Bibi does know to do that – as far I can see the newcomers just want a freehand out to TRY and solve a social problem that will never go away anywhere.

    14. Jerry G says:

      Sam, Your first sentence is correct. Simply put Lapid is not Bibi. The rest of your post is sheer nonsense. I believe the Israeli people are beginning to see Bibi for what he is and they don’t like him.

    15. Jerry G says:

      @ Mladen Andrijasevic:
      Who do I personally trust to handle Iran, Netananyu or Lapid? Neither. Bibi is a great talker but when it comes to taking action, he’s a great talker. Lapid of course has no track record so why trust him.

    16. jeff says:

      Why Lapid? For the same reason people voted for Obama twice – people are stupid.

      Netananyu, for all that could be said negatively or positively, has led a stable government for 4 straight years. The economy is basically good (especially compared to the rest of the world right now), war conflicts have all been successful, the government stayed in tact almost its whole term (longer than most), for the most part he stood up to Obama and world pressure on many issues, no major long lasting disastrous compromises with the Pals were made, etc. Yet the people poll to elect someone with absolutely no experience and who they have no idea what he will do.

      Churchill helped win the war for England and for the world, yet in the next election they voted him out. People are stupid.

    17. jeff says:

      @ Felix Quigley:

      If Bennett was so smart and so against Livni he should not have jumped into bed with Lapid so quickly and with such strong verbal, open, bonds. He had his chance to join and keep Livni out if that is what he wanted, yet instead of joining and making a stable government he reached over and kissed Lapid. I wish them both a happy marriage.

      You wrote that Lapid and Livni are for Jihad. Well the choice right now is not Lapid and Livni or Netanyahu and Bennett the choice right now is between Lapid and Bennett (with Lapid in charge) or Netanyahu and Livni with Netanyahu in charge. Between those two choices who do you think would do more for Jihad and which would be better for Israel (granted neither is ideal – but those are really the only two choices right now).

    18. Laura says:

      @ Sam Goldblatt:
      In fact you douche, Bibi is more popular amongst Americans than Obama.

    19. Wallace Brand says:

      NormanF Said:

      Fortunately in every instance, Jewish wishful thinking about the Arabs is met with the adamantine wall of Arab extremism and rejectionism.

      I agree with Normal F who says what will happen, but not why. The reason for the adamantine wall is based on religion, not on any secular reason of territory or self government. Israel is in the Dar al Islami and jihad against Israel is placed in a priority. See: Sayeed Qutb, “”Join the Caravan”. The Soviet dezinformatsia cleverly shifted the focus from religion to territory and self government in their draft of the PLO charter in 1964. Spain and other countries next in line are those that formerly were controlled by Islamists. The US too, because it is a barrier to overcoming Israel.

    20. Bernard Ross says:

      yamit82 Said:

      The only serious issue for Bayit HaYehudi is preventing the creation of a Palis state in Y&S

      If this is not the same agenda as BB then perhaps they will be kept out

    21. Ted Belman says:

      @ Bernard Ross:
      When you keep complaining about getting zapped you are insuring that you will be zapped. If you don’t leave some time between each comment, the spammer will think you are a spammer.

    22. yamit82 says:

      @ Mladen Andrijasevic:

      Mladen Andrijasevic Said:

      Whom do you trust more to handle Iran – Netanyahu or Lapid?

      Hmmm? Whom do I trust? Based on performance to date certainly not BB and if you do you had better make a case that is not obvious to me and most other Israelis. BB has been ranting on Iran for years and what has he done except yell wolf? Iran is still spinning uranium and BB still hopes he can con America into doing our dirty work for us. That tact has not moved Obama , sanctions are not stopping them and now they have tripled their centrifuge capacity. I am assuming the attack window is all but shut for Israel today BB waited too long and I guess he had hoped Obama would have pulled his chestnuts from the fire long ago. I call it weak bumbling and even criminally negligent Leadership.

      Do you think Lapid will be worse?

    23. It is not strictly to the point of the swing of the arguments but Netanyahu is the classic centrist. It is mistaken to think of the centrist sitting in the centre, he moves, sometimes to the left sometimes to the right.

      Remember all I said about Bennett is correct. He too is unstable. Yet he must be defended with everything, because it is not just Bennett, it is the swing of the Israeli people especially in Judea and Samaria, to seek an answer. The way forward is through that swing, the seeking of that answer by significant sections of Israelis and Jews. I would put Feiglin, Eltad in that same area too but Feiglin is more boxed in by his past.

      As I see it the Jihadists are Livni, the Barak Labour traitors, and the Stalinists in the Universities. Netanyahu is a swinger but his main anchorage is with where he was trained, in the US Establishment.

    24. Yamit your analysis above is pretty accurate

      I am assuming the attack window is all but shut for Israel today BB waited too long and I guess he had hoped Obama would have pulled his chestnuts from the fire long ago. I call it weak bumbling and even criminally negligent Leadership.

      Are you sure that the attack window for Israel is all but closed?

      Could Hagel be worse than that? No he could not. That is bad as it gets, as you say criminal.

      But could Hagel be better? It is now clear that there was a conspiracy to keep Iran out of the election discussion.

      No Hagel would not be better.

      Feiglin remains tied up by the way he is set up with Likud, in other words his independence of action is being limited.

      What about Eltad… he is not a new force, good man, but not a new force to be a change.

      So Bennett is the one remaining who represents something new, a force for change.

      That is why I back him. Of course I did not say and will not say Bennett is the answer. Plus others here know him better than I do, I am not nearly as expert as you or Ted or many others here but I do know enough.

      But my fundamental point remains and cannot change. It is the movement behind him, and I mean specifically the movement of people, or the movement in consciousness of people, that I am interested in.

      I notice Yamit that despite good analyses of many things you never seem to come out and provide any concrete way forward in the field of political life in Israel.

      So concretely you say that Hagel and Netanyahu have both led Israel into a dangerous situation in relation to Obama and Iran, so then what about Bennett, what do you propose (IN CONCRETE TERMS)

      Given the defence of the Second Amendment is that not now an opening in Israel for the arming (total) of the people, and for Jews to move to the setting up of armed patriotic committees in every locality in the country. Linking up with the IDF but also seeking to politicise the IDF.

      I am however Irish and outside (in a physical sense) of this. But I would move to Israel to help in any of these strategies. And I would campaign where I am if needed…

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