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  • February 24, 2013

    Preparing for the fall of Jordan

    Op-ed: Instead of trying to impose two-state solution, world should help establish stable Palestinian state east of Jordan River

    Yoel Meltzer, YNET

    As the bloodshed in Syria continues with no end in sight, more and more eyes are beginning to focus on Syria’s formerly stable southern neighbor, Jordan. After nearly two years of low level protests, the last few months have witnessed not only an upsurge in the amount of protests but also a significant change in the makeup of the protesters themselves.


    For starters, Jordan’s large Palestinian population, a group which comprises roughly 70% of Jordan’s total population, has finally entered the fray with many in this somewhat disenfranchised community openly calling for the king to be ousted. Equally significant, the Muslim Brotherhood, a group that traditionally has been treated well by the king, has also begun to take part in the escalating protest movement. However, unlike the Palestinians, the Muslim Brotherhood is not calling for the king to be toppled but rather for the regime to be reformed. Although they clearly understand that the king is slowly losing his grip on power, tactically it’s in their interest to gradually gain control via reforms instead of taking a chance with the all-out chaos that is likely to prevail should the king suddenly fall.

    With the post-Mubarak Egypt already in the hands of the Muslim Brotherhood, coupled with the Hamas regime in Gaza and the Hezbollah domination of Lebanon, western and Israeli leaders are understandably concerned about the future in Jordan. The question is, what should they do?

    While some will suggest that the king needs to be supported at all costs in order to maintain the relatively peaceful border with Israel, this approach seems short-sighted since it’s only a matter of time before the unstoppable events which have been sweeping the region for the last two years will finally bring down the king and end the Hashemite rule in Jordan.

    Another option is to simply stand aside and do nothing. However, since the Muslim Brotherhood, thanks to its close association with the king, already has the inside track for gaining power in the post-Hashemite Jordan, and due to the fact that a similar course of action in Egypt backfired and brought Morsi to power, this approach also does not seem to be the most prudent.

    Thus, the only logical option is to strengthen the large Palestinian population and to facilitate their rise to power in such a way as to prevent yet another needless civil war and bloodbath in the region. Moreover, by already forging contacts with various Palestinian leaders in Jordan, the seeds can be set for the development of the Arab world’s first true democracy. Finally, regarding the king, it’s a near certainty that if done peacefully he and his family will be granted asylum in a European capital, a fate infinitely better than that of either Mubarak or Gaddafi.

    The question is, will the world sit idly by and allow yet another Arab country, one that is bordered by a warring Syria to the north and an unstable Iraq to the east, to either be taken over by Muslim fundamentalists or to deteriorate into civil war and bloodshed? Or will they spend a tiny fraction of the time and money that is invested in endlessly trying to force Israel to accept the ill-advised and impractical two-state solution to help develop a stable Palestinian state east of the Jordan River, one that can be developed to satisfy the national aspirations of the Palestinians and in doing so finally lay the groundwork for solving the supposedly unsolvable Arab-Israeli conflict?

    Yoel Meltzer is a freelance writer living in Jerusalem. He can be contacted via yoelmeltzer.com

  • Posted by Ted Belman @ 1:59 pm | 14 Comments »

    14 Comments to Preparing for the fall of Jordan

    1. NormanF says:

      Encouraging all the Arabs in Israel to live in the Arab state east of the Jordan would eliminate a constant source of world pressure on Israel.

      Instead of propping up the dying Hashemite monarchy, Israel should encourage the “Palestinian” Arabs in Jordan to claim self-determination.

      Israel’s leaders would need to be wise to realize that propping up the PA/Hamas is a dead end that will never lead to true peace. They show no signs of acquiring true wisdom.

      That is Israel’s tragedy in this century.

    2. Dean says:

      The MB would only be a first step in the spiraling descent into chaos, just as in Egypt. After the MB, Al Qaeda, Palestinian radicals and others will step in. Unlike Egypt, there is no military infrastructure to take over and pick up the broken pieces after the civil war. Meltzer is dreaming if he thinks that “the seeds can be set for the development of the Arab world’s first true democracy.” This is the same wishful thinking that does more harm than good in the grand scheme of inevitable horrifying outcomes in the Middle East. And what planet does he live on to hold fast to this belief: “…develop a stable Palestinian state east of the Jordan River, one that can be developed to satisfy the national aspirations of the Palestinians”? If he is so willing to give land east of the Jordan to terrorists (Hamas and others) who would likely take over in the final analysis, then why not just give it to a stable, modern, technologically advanced, law-abiding western country that has a legal, historical, biblical and moral claim to that land – Israel? What “aspirations” do the Palestinians have other than to kill Jews?

    3. ArnoldHarris says:

      Most of you reading this know as well as I do that any kind of stable Arab state, Palestinian or otherwise, is permanently unlikely. That certainly applies to any post-Hashemite Arab state in Trans-Jordan. In addition, it will be seen over time that Israel, both for reasons of national security and the needs of an expanding Jewish national population in its original homeland, must control the lands to the east from the Jordan River to the Syrian deserts. Chances are, some of you know all this far better than I do.

      I would expand on these two arguments, but anybody who reads my comments knows that my visions of the Jewish nation, Zionism and Israel are permanently fixed and are not subject to argument.

      Arnold Harris
      Mount Horeb WI

    4. the phoenix says:

      @ NormanF:

      Israel should encourage the “Palestinian” Arabs in Jordan to claim self-determination.

      and

      Israel should “encourage” the Muslim population in Judea Samaria AND Israel proper, to join their brethren.

    5. Bernard Ross says:

      only logical option is to strengthen the large Palestinian population and to facilitate their rise to power

      gaza is a good example of palestinian self determination. Israel must do what is in the interests of Israelis not palestinians. There is no quick fix that can be pulled out of the hat. this is why the current situation obtains. Security for Israel will not magically appear from agreements with transitory govts and unpredictable populations. The best thing for Israel is a perpetual arab spring whereby the competing elements vying for power in the surrounding It is best if the arab spring is sustained and maintained. Surrounding nations are weakened through internal strife. This is the medium and long term solution: military weak and disorganized neighbors. The arab spring has strengthened Israels regional status. All the other paradigms have been tried and failed. Regarding the west bank arab population the ideal is transfer and/or emigration. This will probably take time in the absence of a big war and forced transfer. Deportations of terrorists and their families are a beginning coupled with incentives to leave with a goal of a constantly reducing hostile element.. Until the hostile population reaches acceptable levels they must be strictly supervised within their areas. these solutions are not PC but they are practical and doable. Jordan has the potential for absorbing the pals either through force of hostilities or as an economic magnet resulting from investment. Syria and Lebanon also has this potential. If the pals could be relied upon to exercise power in a way not dangerous to Israel then their freedom and power in the surrounding nations could encourage immigration there. The problem is that until now their leaders have always emphasized the dead jew solution. Jordan in the hands of a non hostile palestinian population would be good, and even a hostile state that allows pal immigration from the west bank.

    6. Bernard Ross says:

      I want to add that Israels main thrust should be to encourage the settlement of Jews west of the Jordan river and east of the green line regardless of whether it expects to be the future governing state. Economic improvement attracts, rather than repels, therefore that improvement should not be in arab areas there unless and until the hostilities disappear.

    7. NormanF says:

      the phoenix Said:

      @ NormanF:
      Israel should encourage the “Palestinian” Arabs in Jordan to claim self-determination.
      and
      Israel should “encourage” the Muslim population in Judea Samaria AND Israel proper, to join their brethren.

      I wrote Israel should do both. Netanyahu is trying to bribe the Arabs into being quiet. The Arabs will never be coddled by the Jews. Then again we know who is indulging in wishful thinking about peace.

    8. CuriousAmerican says:

      Instead of trying to impose two-state solution, world should help establish stable Palestinian state east of Jordan River

      The Arabs would say: Israel is trying to impose a one state solution.

      That being said:

      I wish you luck with Jordan. I really do. I really hope Jordan works out for Israel.

      My own feelings are that it will backfire:

      A) The New Jordan will be worse than the old Jordan

      B) The New Jordan will be more hostile than the old Jordan

      C) The New Jordan will not take in the Arabs of Judea and Samaria, nor will it naturalize them

      D) The Arabs of Judea and Samaria will not voluntarily leave Judea and Samaria, even if …

      R) The Arabs of Judea and Samaria will remain stateless and embedded

      F) The fallacy is anticipating that any Arab state will willingly do anything to help Israel at all.

      Pay the Judean and Samarian Arabs to leave for South America.

      In the end, it will be less expensive than war.

    9. CuriousAmerican says:

      @ the phoenix:
      and

      Israel should “encourage” the Muslim population in Judea Samaria AND Israel proper, to join their brethren.

      And how do you plan to encourage them?

      I notice “encourage” was in quotes, indicating a veiled sarcasm.

      Why don’t you just pay them to leave for South America. In the end, it would be cheaper than war.

      Why do you always opt for violent ethnic cleaning?

      If you won’t pay them to leave out of human pity for the predicament of the Palestinians – maybe you have none – maybe you do not consider them human – then at least do it because paying them to move to South America will save Jewish lives, and, eventually, will be cheaper than war.

    10. the phoenix says:

      CuriousAmerican Said:

      Why don’t you just pay them to leave for South America. In the end, it would be cheaper

      in order not to reinvent the wheel, and to give credit where credit is due, please read yamit’s comment # 26 in the ‘gatekeeper’ thread.

      yamit82 Said:

      Our claim to the Land of Israel is much stronger than your claim to USA.
      That said I am not opposed to the USA. I believe you can stay there with full rights and obligations. I think you should also pay all those undocumented Mexicans to return home. How about $200,000 per adult and half as much for minors? For America, it’s only worthless digital money anyway. More can be created out of thin air when necessary.
      Same worthless money can pay for your Arabs even cheaper than Mexicans. Certainly for lasting Peace in the ME, it’s a small price for you rich Americans to pay, a few billion is chump change in comparison

      CuriousAmerican Said:

      Why do you always opt for violent ethnic cleaning?

      i’ll grant you this much. with the current g.o.i. it just won’t happen. the ONLY violence that will occur, sadly, is against jews…
      but,
      god willing should a kahanist leadership emerge…you REALLY don’t have to worry about violence or bloodshed…
      it will not happen, american.
      you know why?
      because these accursed musloids, that you are jumping to defend no matter how heinous their crime…are basically a breed of cowards.
      they are lusting for blood when they sense that they have the upper hand and/or know that there will be no retributions…
      and indeed they have nothing to fear….’surgical strikes’ and the rest of the pc bullshit….
      once a kahane disciple is at the helm…they will line up ‘like a bubbah’leh’ i.e.with no fuss

      so there.
      you got your answers.
      anything else you would like to know? american?

    11. Bernard Ross says:

      CuriousAmerican Said:

      A) The New Jordan will be worse than the old Jordan

      B) The New Jordan will be more hostile than the old Jordan

      C) The New Jordan will not take in the Arabs of Judea and Samaria, nor will it naturalize them

      D) The Arabs of Judea and Samaria will not voluntarily leave Judea and Samaria, even if …

      R) The Arabs of Judea and Samaria will remain stateless and embedded

      F) The fallacy is anticipating that any Arab state will willingly do anything to help Israel at all.

      I agree that these are the most probable outcomes of a Pal takeover of Jordan, although not the only possible outcomes.
      CuriousAmerican Said:

      Pay the Judean and Samarian Arabs to leave for South America.

      this is also an improbable outcome: the pal and arab leadership will be against accepting money to leave accept within an agreement, which is also unlikely. the South americans are no more likely to accept them.
      as long as there is a choice to remain the pals will not leave, Israel cannot force them to agree but it can transfer them across the borders by truck.It is likely that force and war will be the catalyst for an outcome. Once there are arabs over the border the other arabs, the UN and EU will pay to support them as now or to relocate and integrate them elsewhere. Once there is a fait accomplit that they are not in Israel it will not be reversible; there must be a catalyst that creates the conditions for their desiring to leave.
      To solve the problem peacefully the arab states would have to change their tune, and as you say this is unlikely. However, though unlikely the problem would easily be solved if arab leaders wanted it. certainly they have the land and the money and an influx of pals would bring them global investment and support. The only solution that Israel can guarantee by unilateral action is transfer across the borders, everything else depends on arab logic. The arab leaders will change their tune if the status quo becomes a threat to their rule.

    12. Bernard Ross says:

      CuriousAmerican Said:

      Why do you always opt for violent ethnic cleaning?

      Israel has repeatedly sought peace and coexistence. it is the arabs who have left ethnic cleansing as the only choice. The option they have left is that only the Jews or the arabs can stay. Your solution cannot work because it depends upon the willing participation of the arabs in an agreement. this has always been the problem: the arabs. Israel alone cannot make your solution happen. the only solution that can be accomplished by Israel alone is transfer: buses to the borders. You are playing the same role as all the other hypocrites in that you seek a solution through concessions by Israel when it is the arabs who are the problem. You should speak to them.
      There is the ppossibility that a pal takeover of any neighbor might throw open the borders to other pals to consolidate their hold. this can create a similar situation to gaza but what else is new?

    13. steven l says:

      Arabs and the West do not really care what Israelis want or wish.

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